Hand Analysis - Before it Airs (3 Viewers)

[Windwalker]

There’s 515k in the pot and he has 140k behind.

I think he had $240k behind. Almost his buy-in for the day.

 

[Frogzilla]

Well that’s a good river. V is capable of playing this river perfectly which would require calling a shove at least 70% of the time.

If he thinks your turn raise is polar he’s going to check back river at a good clip, my hunch is much more than 30%

Jam

 

[OfficerLovejoy]

Well if he called your turn check/raise he has a pair bigger than yours or the occasional A5s. What A high calls here after the setup for the easy river shove?
Easy shove river and wait for him to sigh call KK.

 

[JMC9389]

We are nearing conclusion. Lots of great comments, thank you!

Continuing:
——————

Here’s a fun hand I was in, coming up on the current season of HSP. Thought you could play along, will leave enough time for comments / strategy.

Hero is UTG. It is the 2nd-last hand of the day. Currently sitting at about $495K, having started the day at $250k. Blinds are 500/1000 with a $1k BB ante. Looks down and sees (I may have the suits wrong).



Hero does a standard raise to $3k. Hero image is tightish-aggressive, but with a penchant for ill-timed donkey bluffs.

HJ (TAG, killer player, but down today almost $500k) calls.

Button (TAG, known for tournament play and well-timed bluffs ) ponders, and raises to $20,000. Villain on button has $475k behind. Button is up from a $300k starting stack.

Blinds fold. Pot is now $28,500.

It's the 2nd-last hand of the night, and hero has seen BTN 3-bet with a wide range on the button. Could have a suited Ace, a smaller pocket pair, maybe even suited connectors. Hero calls the $20,000.

HJ folds.

Pot is now $45,500.

Flop is .

Hero checks. Short of flopping a set, we're pretty OK about this board. Villain has a wide range, and the board texture has missed flush draws on suited broadways, and we have the blockers to dangerous suited connectors like 67s. It's possible we're up against 10s or a larger pair, but this is worth playing in flow (thanks, @Senzrock) and our plan is to call most bets here. Our expectation here is a 50-66% size bet, which would be standard for the villain's continuation bet sizing we’ve seen all day. We plan to call most bets in this range and see a turn.

Villain bets out $35,000.

Hero calls. Pot is now $115,500.

Turn is .

Hero checks. Nothing has changed on our read here. Given our UTG raise (which usually tends to be with premium hands, and occasional suited connectors for balance), the texture of the board, and then our call after the flop, villain has got to be wondering if we might have a medium pocket pair, or perhaps, if he’s unlucky, a suited connector like 67s.

Villain bets $75,000.

Pot is now $190,500.

Hero tanks for a bit. The bet size is curious, and we get the distinct impression he wants a fold. But it also provides us with an opportunity — I’m now putting him on either AKs, 8s, 9s or 10s. Jacks through Aces seems less likely. I’ve eliminated full-houses, and I feel like I’ve played it where us having a suited connector with a 5 or 6 is a possibility.

Hero raises to $200,000. (“FOLD, FOLD FOLD!!!”)

Villain tanks for a bit, and just calls. The pot is now $515,500.

The river strips off the deck.



Hero?

Oh my, what a river!

Shove.

 

[Perthmike]

We are nearing conclusion. Lots of great comments, thank you!

Continuing:
——————

Here’s a fun hand I was in, coming up on the current season of HSP. Thought you could play along, will leave enough time for comments / strategy.

Hero is UTG. It is the 2nd-last hand of the day. Currently sitting at about $495K, having started the day at $250k. Blinds are 500/1000 with a $1k BB ante. Looks down and sees (I may have the suits wrong).



Hero does a standard raise to $3k. Hero image is tightish-aggressive, but with a penchant for ill-timed donkey bluffs.

HJ (TAG, killer player, but down today almost $500k) calls.

Button (TAG, known for tournament play and well-timed bluffs ) ponders, and raises to $20,000. Villain on button has $475k behind. Button is up from a $300k starting stack.

Blinds fold. Pot is now $28,500.

It's the 2nd-last hand of the night, and hero has seen BTN 3-bet with a wide range on the button. Could have a suited Ace, a smaller pocket pair, maybe even suited connectors. Hero calls the $20,000.

HJ folds.

Pot is now $45,500.

Flop is .

Hero checks. Short of flopping a set, we're pretty OK about this board. Villain has a wide range, and the board texture has missed flush draws on suited broadways, and we have the blockers to dangerous suited connectors like 67s. It's possible we're up against 10s or a larger pair, but this is worth playing in flow (thanks, @Senzrock) and our plan is to call most bets here. Our expectation here is a 50-66% size bet, which would be standard for the villain's continuation bet sizing we’ve seen all day. We plan to call most bets in this range and see a turn.

Villain bets out $35,000.

Hero calls. Pot is now $115,500.

Turn is .

Hero checks. Nothing has changed on our read here. Given our UTG raise (which usually tends to be with premium hands, and occasional suited connectors for balance), the texture of the board, and then our call after the flop, villain has got to be wondering if we might have a medium pocket pair, or perhaps, if he’s unlucky, a suited connector like 67s.

Villain bets $75,000.

Pot is now $190,500.

Hero tanks for a bit. The bet size is curious, and we get the distinct impression he wants a fold. But it also provides us with an opportunity — I’m now putting him on either AKs, 8s, 9s or 10s. Jacks through Aces seems less likely. I’ve eliminated full-houses, and I feel like I’ve played it where us having a suited connector with a 5 or 6 is a possibility.

Hero raises to $200,000. (“FOLD, FOLD FOLD!!!”)

Villain tanks for a bit, and just calls. The pot is now $515,500.

The river strips off the deck.



Hero?

Personally I fold and never tell a soul what I had, so as to hide my shame.

That's just me though, I don't need $500k lol

 

[Marius L]

Biggest unknown of the moment for either party was whether it being the 2nd last hand of the night (and for me, of HSP) had any bearing on the action. I’ve been seen to have suited connectors like 45s and 56s UTG.

I certainly didn’t put him on a 5 or a 6. Which made me surmise I could potentially convince him with that raise of my having that. Plus, the $75k bet seemed like it didn’t want to be called, which made me think AKs was also a distinct possibility.

And my thinking at that time on the 88-TT was that Garett who called my 3k in the HJ might have potentially semi-blocked KK, QQ or AA. I also felt like those bigger pocket pairs might have caused him to bet a bit smaller than $75k.

I’ve since changed my mind, but I tried to stay true in this hand recap of exactly what I was thinking in the moment, whether it made sense later or not.

You are probably right that you might have a 5 or 6 here. But if that's the case maybe you need to reconsider your own percieved image, because opening UTG and calling a pretty huge 3bet OOP with 45/56/67 might not fit with the description of a tight player, even if they are suited IMO. But sure, last-ish hand of the night definitely makes for a more interesting dynamic which could impact how things turn out.

Still, based on how the hand has played so far I would say it is pretty likely Bryn has a high pair here and he might have to call you down because of your history of making some pretty crazy plays. Lets hope so, so you can get paid of with what is likely your big river shove when you river the boat!

The turn reraise might work some of the time though, but still not sure I like how this hand has played out. You are gutsy for sure taking those sevens to a flop in a bloated pot OOP. Unless you flop a set, its almost never an easy hand to play after the flop, even if you are likely ahead a good amount of the time.

 

[Easylife]

This where you tell us you ran into quads?

 

[Eloe2000]

I never really comment in these threads because I really don’t know how to play poker, but I love following them. Thanks for posting.

 

[Kyle]

We are nearing conclusion. Lots of great comments, thank you!

Continuing:
——————

Here’s a fun hand I was in, coming up on the current season of HSP. Thought you could play along, will leave enough time for comments / strategy.

Hero is UTG. It is the 2nd-last hand of the day. Currently sitting at about $495K, having started the day at $250k. Blinds are 500/1000 with a $1k BB ante. Looks down and sees (I may have the suits wrong).



Hero does a standard raise to $3k. Hero image is tightish-aggressive, but with a penchant for ill-timed donkey bluffs.

HJ (TAG, killer player, but down today almost $500k) calls.

Button (TAG, known for tournament play and well-timed bluffs ) ponders, and raises to $20,000. Villain on button has $475k behind. Button is up from a $300k starting stack.

Blinds fold. Pot is now $28,500.

It's the 2nd-last hand of the night, and hero has seen BTN 3-bet with a wide range on the button. Could have a suited Ace, a smaller pocket pair, maybe even suited connectors. Hero calls the $20,000.

HJ folds.

Pot is now $45,500.

Flop is .

Hero checks. Short of flopping a set, we're pretty OK about this board. Villain has a wide range, and the board texture has missed flush draws on suited broadways, and we have the blockers to dangerous suited connectors like 67s. It's possible we're up against 10s or a larger pair, but this is worth playing in flow (thanks, @Senzrock) and our plan is to call most bets here. Our expectation here is a 50-66% size bet, which would be standard for the villain's continuation bet sizing we’ve seen all day. We plan to call most bets in this range and see a turn.

Villain bets out $35,000.

Hero calls. Pot is now $115,500.

Turn is .

Hero checks. Nothing has changed on our read here. Given our UTG raise (which usually tends to be with premium hands, and occasional suited connectors for balance), the texture of the board, and then our call after the flop, villain has got to be wondering if we might have a medium pocket pair, or perhaps, if he’s unlucky, a suited connector like 67s.

Villain bets $75,000.

Pot is now $190,500.

Hero tanks for a bit. The bet size is curious, and we get the distinct impression he wants a fold. But it also provides us with an opportunity — I’m now putting him on either AKs, 8s, 9s or 10s. Jacks through Aces seems less likely. I’ve eliminated full-houses, and I feel like I’ve played it where us having a suited connector with a 5 or 6 is a possibility.

Hero raises to $200,000. (“FOLD, FOLD FOLD!!!”)

Villain tanks for a bit, and just calls. The pot is now $515,500.

The river strips off the deck.



Hero?

Well nice. Bet out. That's the easy part get the rest in. You don't want him to check back Ace high. If he has quads congrats to him and pay him.

I am looking forward to watching this hand.

 

[bergs]

I pass Kenney my phone and tell him he can call his stable after I do what happens next….

and then I shove and turn to the camera, breaking the 4th wall, and stammer “tha-tha-ahbidup-ahbidup-tha-thats all folks!”.

Then as he tanks I quietly start singing the MASH theme to myself but with my head down so the mic can pick it up “…suicide….is….painless….if you…..use…..poisonous frog venom….”

Note that in this scenario I’ve been drinking enough margaritas to fully reconstitute not just the Colorado River, but the entire Southwestern Basin.

If Kenney asks what I have, I politely ask for my phone back after loudly going “neeeeeiiiighhhhh” and calmly reply “Boundless enthusiasm”.

If he tanks for longer then 3 minutes, I’m taking off my left shoe and relacing it on the rail. NOTE: this works infinitely better if your shoes have no laces.

If it’s possible to pull out a sack of White Castle burgers that you’ve kept hidden for this very moment, that’s just pure money. The second stanza of the MASH song at this point is “…this hamburger….is juicy…and…..delicious”.

 

[Stufflymcstuff]

“
Biggest unknown of the moment for either party was whether it being the 2nd last hand of the night (and for me, of HSP) had any bearing on the action. I’ve been seen to have suited connectors like 45s and 56s UTG.

I certainly didn’t put him on a 5 or a 6. Which made me surmise I could potentially convince him with that raise of my having that. Plus, the $75k bet seemed like it didn’t want to be called, which made me think AKs was also a distinct possibility”


I can’t speak to what either of you could/couldn’t have but I will say that in “solver world” you both very rarely have a 5 or 6, and he’d actually have it slightly more often. He (if playing theoretically sound) has some low frequency bluffs that include them but flatting that big a raise oop should all but eliminate them from your range. It’s actually a really bad board for the range of gto krish.

If you think that they’ll peg your range to include those weaker hands because of reads/history it’s easier to “represent” but if you’re playing a leveling game based on history, the read here that he’ll have is that you’re overbluffing which largely cancels the other out.

The real question so whether he’s watched tape. if not it could work way more often than optimal, or way less … he’s playing a guessing game with 95% of his range and could guess wrong. If he has watched tape though it’s lighting money on fire because he’s under bluffing in the first place, and is much less likely to fold value.

 

[bergs]

I probably check and let him hang himself with trips or an overpair because the 7 brings in some draws and a big lead might scare him away. If he bets anything it’s a shove.

Curious though if your read on his range changed at all throughout the hand. With your image a jam might work here even if he has holdings as weak as 99 or TT.

 

[Stufflymcstuff]

If he’s calling down both streets with 99, wow is the turn raise bad.

There’s going to be some kind of twist though and it’ll be funny to see what it is. Maybe brynn had A5s and then folds the river? Maybe he had AK and calls the river? Almost anything is on the table.

 

[jpietrella]

Because I love chaos I'm hoping it's 66 and cue the shocked gifs. I can't imagine villain is calling the turn raise with air so I guess this feels like it's AA or A5?

 

[Frogzilla]

If he’s calling down both streets with 99, wow is the turn raise bad.

There’s going to be some kind of twist though and it’ll be funny to see what it is. Maybe brynn had A5s and then folds the river? Maybe he had AK and calls the river? Almost anything is on the table.

An active PCF member stacking the guy on the biggest poker show for 500k right after he gets outed as a massive cheater is twisty enough for me

Shaman psychic POS has a fairly wide range here I think but if I had to guess a hand it’s JJ

 

[Kain8]

The river strips off the deck.



Hero?

+

=

 

[Windwalker]

I probably check and let him hang himself with trips or an overpair because the 7 brings in some draws and a big lead might scare him away. If he bets anything it’s a shove.

Curious though if your read on his range changed at all throughout the hand. With your image a jam might work here even if he has holdings as weak as 99 or TT.

When he called the $200k, it obviously narrowed his range down quite a bit for me. Big pocket pair was what I mostly figured. I also brought back 6s and 5s. Had I run into quads? Or, did he make a move preflop with a suited connector like 68s or even 65s.

I had given up almost all my profit for the day, and was ready to just fold on the next action.

And then the 2-outer hit.

 

[Windwalker]

Final conclusion:
—————————

Here’s a fun hand I was in, coming up on the current season of HSP. Thought you could play along, will leave enough time for comments / strategy.

Hero is UTG. It is the 2nd-last hand of the day. Currently sitting at about $495K, having started the day at $250k. Blinds are 500/1000 with a $1k BB ante. Looks down and sees (I may have the suits wrong).



Hero does a standard raise to $3k. Hero image is tightish-aggressive, but with a penchant for ill-timed donkey bluffs.

HJ (TAG, killer player, but down today almost $500k) calls.

Button (TAG, known for tournament play and well-timed bluffs ) ponders, and raises to $20,000. Villain on button has $475k behind. Button is up from a $300k starting stack.

Blinds fold. Pot is now $28,500.

It's the 2nd-last hand of the night, and hero has seen BTN 3-bet with a wide range on the button. Could have a suited Ace, a smaller pocket pair, maybe even suited connectors. Hero calls the $20,000.

HJ folds.

Pot is now $45,500.

Flop is .

Hero checks. Short of flopping a set, we're pretty OK about this board. Villain has a wide range, and the board texture has missed flush draws on suited broadways, and we have the blockers to dangerous suited connectors like 67s. It's possible we're up against 10s or a larger pair, but this is worth playing in flow (thanks, @Senzrock) and our plan is to call most bets here. Our expectation here is a 50-66% size bet, which would be standard for the villain's continuation bet sizing we’ve seen all day. We plan to call most bets in this range and see a turn.

Villain bets out $35,000.

Hero calls. Pot is now $115,500.

Turn is .

Hero checks. Nothing has changed on our read here. Given our UTG raise (which usually tends to be with premium hands, and occasional suited connectors for balance), the texture of the board, and then our call after the flop, villain has got to be wondering if we might have a medium pocket pair, or perhaps, if he’s unlucky, a suited connector like 67s.

Villain bets $75,000.

Pot is now $190,500.

Hero tanks for a bit. The bet size is curious, and we get the distinct impression he wants a fold. But it also provides us with an opportunity — I’m now putting him on either AKs, 8s, 9s or 10s. Jacks through Aces seems less likely. I’ve eliminated full-houses, and I feel like I’ve played it where us having a suited connector with a 5 or 6 is a possibility.

Hero raises to $200,000. (“FOLD, FOLD FOLD!!!”)

Villain tanks for a bit, and just calls. The pot is now $515,500.

The river strips off the deck.



Hero shoves for about $230k+ more.

Villain insta-calls and turns over his cards. Pot is now ~$980k. He and Hero are on opposite ends of the very long table, and hero can’t hear / see what he has exactly. He thinks he sees a pair of 6s.

Villain’s cards are brought into view by dealer.

Spoiler

Hero quickly turns over his 7s. Villain is extremely gracious and exits stage right.

Thanks for playing along! This hand should air on May 9th.

 

[JMC9389]

Yowza, I did not put him on the

Spoiler

6

at all. A5 was the best hand he'd have that would play that way, I think.

Way ahead or way behind before that river indeed. Tip that dealer lol.

 

[Eloe2000]

Spicy hand. Very excited to see this play out on video.

 

[Frogzilla]

3 betting 69, the weird shit with frogs, stacked on the river….I feel for this guy

 

[Kain8]

Holy crap, what a hand. If the Hustler games didn't give Krish enough exposure to be invited to some insane private games, this hand will absolutely open the floodgates.

Not to mention with the absolutely serendipitous timing of Kenney's scandal, you'll be hailed as an absolute hero too Krish. Maybe your new nickname will be the Frenchman since you love devouring them frogs?

 

[The Nuts]

Hero image is tightish-aggressive, but with a penchant for ill-timed donkey bluffs

 

[grebe]

Pot is now $190,500.

Hero tanks for a bit. The bet size is curious, and we get the distinct impression he wants a fold. But it also provides us with an opportunity — I’m now putting him on either AKs, 8s, 9s or 10s. Jacks through Aces seems less likely. I’ve eliminated full-houses, and I feel like I’ve played it where us having a suited connector with a 5 or 6 is a possibility.

Hero raises to $200,000. (“FOLD, FOLD FOLD!!!”)

Villain tanks for a bit, and just calls. The pot is now $515,500.

The river strips off the deck.



Hero?

LOVE the check raise! Really surprised this didnt work. I am now putting him on a big pair and eliminating AK-AT. AA-99.

River bails us out. I don't see how anybody can fold to our shove here, and any overpair will check it back after we have shown strength on the turn. We just put it in and pray for the call now.

Thanks for sharing the hand!

 

[ChipFinderSK]

Looking forward to the YouTube comments when this hand gets posted. Congrats on the huge win WW

 

[FDLmold]

I read along, but did not comment. I kept trying to range villain and ended up at suited Ax being most likely, obviously one that had a 5 or 6, given the betting. I had some over pairs in there too. I don’t think I ever included 55 or 66, but perhaps I should have.

Nice river!

 

[HaRDHouSeiNC]

I read along, but did not comment. I kept trying to range villain and ended up at suited Ax being most likely, obviously one that had a 5 or 6, given the betting. I had some over pairs in there too. I don’t think I ever included 55 or 66, but perhaps I should have.

Nice river!

I was on JJ OR A6 maybe A5 soooooted by the turn

 

[JScott]

You're going to look like an even bigger hero after last weeks revelations @Windwalker

Great hand.

 

[TX_Golf_N_Poker]

Tip that dealer lol.

This brings up a good question, How much do you tip the dealer after a million dollar pot???

Congrats Krish! Great hand and glad you pulled it out on the river.

 

[Windwalker]

This brings up a good question, How much do you tip the dealer after a million dollar pot???

Congrats Krish! Great hand and glad you pulled it out on the river.

I was honestly in so much shock I initially forgot to tip the dealer. The taping ended after the next hand, and and I remembered while I was coloring up. Tipped 2 flags.

Edit: in retrospect, that was all adrenaline. I suppose $1k would have been totally fine.