J8s, late possition deep stacked (1 Viewer)

[Mr Tree]

I think I'd be 70% folding 30% calling here.

If it weren't for the two players yet to act I'd be 100% calling but I fear a raise behind me.

 

[fish72s]

I think I'd be 70% folding 30% calling here.

If it weren't for the two players yet to act I'd be 100% calling but I fear a raise behind me.

True. But hero should be able to get a read on whether a raise is coming.

 

[Mr Tree]

True. But hero should be able to get a read on whether a raise is coming.

Huh? You got ESP? I haven't heard any info on what the guy behind us is doing besides he has a history as a competent LAG. He's called preflop and flop so far. That's all we have in the context of this problem.

 

[DrStrange]

*** And the river ***

Hero calls. Button calls. UTG folds. Four players to see the river, $135 in the pot.

River: < >

Crazy bets $31. Let me say that $31 is Crazy's favorite bet. He doesn't make plays thinking about the pot and bet sizing, he would rather make his signature move. No idea about how good he thinks his hand is - Could be ace high could be the nuts. MP1 folds. Action on Hero. Should he call or raise, if raising how much and why?

DrStrange

PS Hero is not overly fearful of a squeeze play by a LAG, though mindful it could happen. The field is very sticky and there are a lot of them. The LAG will need to have some equity to make the bet because it is likely someone will stick around with a one pair hand. This would be quite different if the hand were 3-way because Hero is not known for his stickyness.

 

[Mr Tree]

OK so now it's extraction time! However we got here we now have the stone cold nuts with no more cards to come. Obviously a raise is in order but how much is the question.

Some will advocate a small raise in hopes that either LAG or Crazy calls but I have higher aspirations on a hand that can't be beat. You don't get in this position often so I would rather get some true value out of this then squeeze one more value bet.

$166 in the pot. Unfortunately your table image is tight. Fortunately the other two aren't. My preference is to make a raise that looks like a buy and gives Crazy a chance to make a hero all in bet move. I'd say raise to $130 and hope someone tilts back. It may chase off the action but I will take the times I get a call or a shove here over the times I eek out a call on a raise of $65-$70.

 

[BGinGA]

In your game? Raise to $80, and expect additional action from one or both players. Too bad Alpha's not in this hand....

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Jam. I don't see anyone in your game folding an eight even to you.

 

[BGinGA]

Problem with jamming is you probably aren't getting any calls if nobody has an eight. Give most of this crowd a little rope though, and they will re-raise without one.

 

[fish72s]

Jam. I don't see anyone in your game folding an eight even to you.

For once I am agreeing with Chippy All in for $800+.
I think it all boils down to whether anyone has an eight or not. (I don't think anyone is folding an 8 no matter the $$$.)
I'm guessing 50-50 (or better) that someone has an eight and we are getting paid off. (5 unseen cards smack in the middle of the callers ranges)
Maybe we are losing some small value from a loose 2 pair $80 calling hand but I'll take that risk for the big payoff

 

[AlPresidente]

I think jam is clearly best here.

 

[MoscowRadio]

At first I was thinking about raising small to try to induce an over-shove, but now I'm leaning more towards shoving. This may make it look like you have just an 8 and would force someone into calling expecting to chop.

I can, however, see the benefits of a small raise here, but that looks a whole lot more dangerous to me than a shove.

 

[es02609]

I am going with shoving and making people think about calling for the chop.

 

[grandgnu]

I'm in the shove camp as well. not only do you get paid off by another 8, but there's the possibility one of the hyper-aggressives views your play as a huge bluff and looks you up much lighter here.

 

[atomiktoaster]

I smell 8 from the LAG, god-knows-what from Crazy. If the read is good, go for it all now. LAG is gonna lose 900 looking for the chop and Crazy has a good chance of having to rebuy before the next hand as gravy. Focus on the big stack and don't let him get away for less than the max.

 

[courage]

The river bet depends on a couple of things, 1) hero's value/bluff frequency on the river (how often does hero overbet the pot on river as a bluff vs value bet?), and 2) hand reading ability of opponents. Do we really believe these players are bad enough to call off their stack on a 9x pot overbet? Such a bet might make even the craziest opponents stop and consider, although I've seen it work and have been on both sides of that river. Only the good Dr knows his players and his table image in this situation but if he's the solid player in the group I'd be inclined to raise to $88 and hope someone with an 8 becomes table bully.

 

[fish72s]

On a side note, how much would a good player call with just an 8? Crazy would insta-call of course.
Button is described as 'competent'. Can he fold understanding he is calling over $800 to win $83?
If so then maybe just make it $300 to $500.
If its me, I'm probably folding the straight to a $150 to $200 raise. (I say that but I'd probably make a crying call for $150.)

 

[Mr Tree]

On a side note, how much would a good player call with just an 8? Crazy would insta-call of course.
Button is described as 'competent'. Can he fold understanding he is calling over $800 to win $83?
If so then maybe just make it $300 to $500.
If its me, I'm probably folding the straight to a $150 to $200 raise. (I say that but I'd probably make a crying call for $150.)

I think I start having misgivings around $200-$250. No way I can call $900 with a beatable hand and a bet coming from a guy I consider a nit.

 

[fish72s]

Given the good doctor's reputation, I would have misgivings for any raise.
$20 would be a crying call

 

[grandgnu]

Shove all-in, then type "oh shit, mislick!" into the chat box

 

[Schmendr1ck]

I like a shove here. It looks bluffy and is almost guaranteed to get looked up by an eight, and quite possibly less in this crowd. I'll take the risk of losing value when villains fold.

 

[DrStrange]

*** Results ***

Hero targets Crazy and counts out $300 in chips then pulls out $5, $5, $5, $31 and shoves out the $244 gently and says "this much". Button goes nuts, whining about why so much? Hero replies "that this is just between Crazy and Hero and the button can just fold and get out of our pot." Button whines some more about how he knew it but eventually folds. {by the way, a $244 raise into $197 pot is not that unreasonable.}

Crazy counts out his chips and {finally} figures out Hero has bet exactly how much Crazy has left. He asks, "you know that is all my chips?" Crazy then thinks out loud about how Hero can't have an eight, he never plays an eight to a raise, well maybe 88 or A8s. Crazy turns over an and goes into his "I'm taking all your chips, sucker" dance. Hero waits until Crazy says the magic word before showing his hand. Crazy's other card is

Button shows us and goes on about how he had the best hand until the river.

Crazy rebuys, again -=- DrStrange

PS Hero goes on to stack Crazy one last time playing 64s vs crazy's pocket kings. No strategy there - Hero made a donkey $11 preflop call, hits bottom two pair and gets Crazy's $200. A bad plan gone right.

- - - - - - - - - Updated - - - - - - - - -

How I see this hand:

Hero make a terrible blunder preflop. Bad, bad, terribly bad. I don't know the expected value of the play but -$5 seems plausible. The RIO risks playing really deep can't be over stated. J8s makes second best flushes and even with it makes a straight on a "safe" board, half the time the straight is the second nut. Every player at the table plays KJo even into a big raise - the hand that dominates J8 for straights. Also, it is quite plausible that someone is going to raise preflop and blow Hero off his hand.

So, it is "only" $5? Well, a good win rate at $1/$2 is $20/hour. If Hero is donking off $5 an hour with hands like J8s, it is a quarter of his win rate. Really, this is a terribly bad preflop decision.

Post flop: Hero gets lucky on the flop, a rainbow board with a gut shot to the nuts. "Lucky" because we flopped the gut shot draw reiterates how bad the preflop choice was. Hero gets proper odds to draw and does so. Now there is some chance a LAG is going to raise with garbage but mostly a raise means business. LAGs do not prosper trying to blow eight people off the hand with no pair - the table is sticky and the math just doesn't make sense. I'd call the raise risk 20% but I think the implied odds make up for the risk.

The turn: Same song, second verse. No flush draws, the turn is a brick. Hero is getting good odds to draw and as before, there are solid reasons for the LAGs not to get frisky with hands weaker than top pair. (we saw this with how button played his hand.)

The river: I have to say that Hero never considered button might have the eight. Hero had tunnel vision for Crazy's stack. I expect Crazy to stack off with top pair or better. As it was, crazy was already stacking the pot in his mind when Hero showed down the nuts. Yum!

DrStrange

 

[Mr Tree]

Doc, my original thought on the river was a raise to $130. Given that the button had two pair do you think this bet would have got a call from him before the inevitable shove from crazy?

 

[grandgnu]

Well, a good win rate at $1/$2 is $20/hour.

$20/hr at 1/2 NL sounds overly high as a realistic expected long-term return....

 

[atomiktoaster]

It's a complete dick move, especially at these stakes, but it would have been soooo tempting to slow roll that hand at the end... "I like my 8, too.... but I like my Jack better." Crazy flips table, other players determine it was justifiable homicide. RIP in Peace DrStrange

 

[Ben]

$20/hr at 1/2 NL sounds overly high as a realistic expected long-term return....

At Foxwoods, probably. In unraked home games where almost every player is as bad or worse than the worst player you will encounter on an average day at Foxwoods, it is VERY possible to do much, much better than 10 bb/hr, over a very large sample.

 

[Mr Tree]

The funny thing is that Doc is viewed as a pansy by the table. I would love to see the lifetime ROI he has with this group. I have a feeling it is very favorable.

 

[DrStrange]

We have several player who manage $20+/hr in this game with enough of a sample size to have marginal confidence in the number. {note I said marginal, 95% confidence would be a whole nother thing.}

The key? it is unraked. The amount of money going for rake/promotions is ~$8 - ~$16 hr in a typical casino.

And, yes my lifetime win rate is better than break even vs these villains.

DrStrange

 

[fish72s]

Was this meant to be posted to my other thread?

$20/hr at 1/2 NL sounds overly high as a realistic expected long-term return....

 

[grandgnu]

Was this meant to be posted to my other thread?

It was in direct response to a comment by the good doctor here (who, btw, really needs to get into one of our Monday evening PCF tournaments online!)