bentax1978
4 of a Kind
What tripleflat said. Guy in between folded AJ. Guy who was mad had AA.
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KK On The Button (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter moojersey
- Start date
What tripleflat said. Guy in between folded AJ. Guy who was mad had AA.
ohio3302016
Flush
Gotcha. Makes sense now.
ohio3302016
Flush
Are they showing everytime you fold or are you just 100% certain on your reads?
Jimulacrum
Full House
Usually the big tip-off is that there's more than one player giving very strong action, so I've gotten to see them at showdown most of the times I've folded KK preflop. I think once someone showed too.
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Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
solid reg limps UTG, then facing a raise and reraise "casually" says he's all-in? Yeah, smells like Aces to me. Do we really think he does this with AK or QQ? I mean, maybe he's got the other two Kings here. God, it is SO hard to fold Kings in a cash game, but I think all the signs are pointing to what we already know. I'm voting fold.
tripleflatbarrel
Pair
Unless I've seen V limp UTG w AK/AQ I think this has to be aces more than 80% of the time. He either has AA or something like 66-99 and decided nobody has goodies; LAGs open looks like an attempt to punish the limpers, OMC would have repopped w AA/KK, and youve been playing TAG, maybe even a positional LAG based on your comment on playing mostly in position.
4b shoving w AK/AQ as a bluff w/ goodies blockers is pretty advanced. And unless he set out with the intention of doing this knowing LAG and Loose Cannon were behind (possible but super bold) I just don't see him showing up with that.
Flip a coin? Idk. But I'll be surprised if he doesn't have AA. And when you factor in loose cannon maybe slow playing AA... yeesh idk. Flip a coin?
4b shoving w AK/AQ as a bluff w/ goodies blockers is pretty advanced. And unless he set out with the intention of doing this knowing LAG and Loose Cannon were behind (possible but super bold) I just don't see him showing up with that.
Flip a coin? Idk. But I'll be surprised if he doesn't have AA. And when you factor in loose cannon maybe slow playing AA... yeesh idk. Flip a coin?
Jimulacrum
Full House
There's a simple way to look at this:
We need to hit a parlay: Both players need to not have aces in a spot where they've both made an extremely strong move (UTG more so than LC, but LC does have a clue and is playing his stack against a very strong-looking raise).
This is compounded by the fact that, even when no one has AA, we're still up against two hands and have to beat them both. It's not the difference between being a 4:1 dog or a 4:1 favorite, like it might be heads-up. We're only about a 2:1 favorite when we're ahead against two underpairs, and a slim 5:4 favorite against AK and any underpair. Just one ace between those two hands shrinks up our equity significantly—and that's in the "good" cases where we're not totally crushed by AA in one hand or the other. We're worse than a 4.6:1 dog against AA and QQ, and almost a 9:1 dog against AA and AK.
This is why folding KK preflop is not always difficult when there's a very strong move and multi-way action. If you fold and are wrong, you haven't missed out on much equity-wise, but if you call and are wrong, you basically threw your stack on a fire.
- For every 10 times UTG makes this raise, how many of them do you figure he will not have aces?
- Make the same estimate for Loose Cannon.
We need to hit a parlay: Both players need to not have aces in a spot where they've both made an extremely strong move (UTG more so than LC, but LC does have a clue and is playing his stack against a very strong-looking raise).
This is compounded by the fact that, even when no one has AA, we're still up against two hands and have to beat them both. It's not the difference between being a 4:1 dog or a 4:1 favorite, like it might be heads-up. We're only about a 2:1 favorite when we're ahead against two underpairs, and a slim 5:4 favorite against AK and any underpair. Just one ace between those two hands shrinks up our equity significantly—and that's in the "good" cases where we're not totally crushed by AA in one hand or the other. We're worse than a 4.6:1 dog against AA and QQ, and almost a 9:1 dog against AA and AK.
This is why folding KK preflop is not always difficult when there's a very strong move and multi-way action. If you fold and are wrong, you haven't missed out on much equity-wise, but if you call and are wrong, you basically threw your stack on a fire.
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ohio3302016
Flush
My thinking is much, much more basic. It's a 1/2 NL cash game. I'm occasionally going to run KK into AA....so be it.
bentax1978
4 of a Kind
This is true. And statistically speaking, you're only going to run into AA when you have KK about once every twenty-five times (at a full ten person table), so it's not something you need to worry about happening too often. And of that 4%, a majority of the time the combination of stack sizes and lack of action/info is going to dictate that you end up losing your stack to the aces. However, none of that precludes the fact that there are limited occasions when it is acceptable (and appropriate) to fold KK preflop in a 1/2 NLHE cash game. Just my thoughts, YMMV.
ohio3302016
Flush
This is true. And statistically speaking, you're only going to run into AA when you have KK about once every twenty-five times (at a full ten person table), so it's not something you need to worry about happening too often. And of that 4%, a majority of the time the combination of stack sizes and lack of action/info is going to dictate that you end up losing your stack to the aces. However, none of that precludes the fact that there are limited occasions when it is acceptable (and appropriate) to fold KK preflop in a 1/2 NLHE cash game. Just my thoughts, YMMV.
I agree with this. I just know that I'm not good enough to do it.
Plus....SUCK OUT!!!
tripleflatbarrel
Pair
Pretty much.
Once you're talking about a 4b multi way pot though, it's much better odds than 1 in 25.
Once you're talking about a 4b multi way pot though, it's much better odds than 1 in 25.
bentax1978
4 of a Kind
Of course. I just meant that it doesn't happen often in general.
Jimulacrum
Full House
Unless the hand in question starts off like 1,000 BB deep or is near the bubble of a big tournament. Then, in my experience, once I have kings, it's pretty much certain that someone has aces.
DrStrange
4 of a Kind
Hero has a lot more information beyond the probability of a random hand being AA. The main purpose of the thread is to decide if there is enough information to sway Hero to a fold.
ohio3302016
Flush
A tournament scenario is a completley different discussion, imo.
bentax1978
4 of a Kind
I didn't mean to side track things by implying otherwise. I only brought up the frequency to say that it's a situation you don't have to deal with very often.
tripleflatbarrel
Pair
So what happened?!?!? Im dying over here.
Very true.
Have to consider UTG is solid reg at this card room.
Hero is tight. I 3 bet my button to to 25bb and reg shoves like I'm a pushover. I don't 3 bet that often. And seldom get out of line.
Keep in mind when Reg shoves there are folks behind him who limped, the original raiser, and the 3 bet tight button
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This is also very true. Hero tanked for 5-8 minutes. I had to apologize to the table a couple times for taking so long. Even threw the dealer a red bird because I know his game is deal more hands, make more money.
Most folks were cool and understood. As they know I'm not a Hollywood type person.
Part of my decision making process was weighing how often I'm actually running KK into AA versus villains possible range which I think is AA, KK, AKs, with a very far out chance of QQ
Then weighing the pot odds before me. Even if I'm behind to AA I still flop set 1 in 7.5
Jimulacrum
Full House
Oh no. Hero's gonna call, be behind to AA and AA, and flop a king. I can smell it.
ohio3302016
Flush
Yep. That's how I'd play it.
bentax1978
4 of a Kind
I agree. If you're gonna flop a set of kings, you might as well do it when you're up against two pairs of aces.
This was going through my head as well. I kept asking myself if I was really going to fold KK's preflop for approx 100bb, being with deeper stacks and risking $600-800 is another story
Jimulacrum
Full House
It is and it isn't. Early in a tournament with 100 BB or deeper stacks, it's essentially the same situation, plus the consideration that you're risking your tournament life in a small favorite / huge dog spot.
Some tournaments, even late in the game, I tend to not want to get my stack in at all if I can help it. Often, it's so much more profitable to preserve my ability to steal blinds and other uncontested pots. Depends a lot on the lineup of opponents, though.
Chippy McChiperson
Straight Flush
Are you still tanking? I'm going to have to call clock. Reply within one minute or your cards are folded.
bentax1978
4 of a Kind
He disconnected to get another 240 seconds in his time bank.
Chippy McChiperson
Straight Flush
ohio3302016
Flush
Strategery.
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