Nasty River Spot: AK good vs Tight Player? (2 Viewers)

[boltonguy]

-So since you have labeled this player as tight...you should assume he does not bluff anywhere near enough to be balanced. So your response to his raise becomes simple: fold all of your bluff catchers. When he raises, your question should be: can I beat any of his value? The answer on the flop is an emphatic NO. Therefore, we should always fold. Will there be exceptions? Sure....but overall, this EXPLOITATTIVE fold makes us money.

Agree 100% based on player type as tight IMHO

 

[Senzrock]

I think your big mistake here is the flop call still...and I was just thinking about how to emphasis this. This concept is from Ed Miller's "The Course" and talking about GTO strategies and when they go from GTO against an unknown opponent to GTO to a known opponent. I know I said those bad letters, but bear with me...

-If you are playing against a known opponent that does something either not enough or too much, your response becomes binary (not a mix of this or that). If he bluffs too much, you should call him down every time you can beat his bluffs. If he doesn't bluff enough, you should fold EVERY SINGLE hand that is just a bluff catcher.

-So since you have labeled this player as tight...you should assume he does not bluff anywhere near enough to be balanced. So your response to his raise becomes simple: fold all of your bluff catchers. When he raises, your question should be: can I beat any of his value? The answer on the flop is an emphatic NO. Therefore, we should always fold. Will there be exceptions? Sure....but overall, this EXPLOITATTIVE fold makes us money.

Love Ed Miller, great reference here.

Overall, I agree with this (and have generally employed this) strategy. No overthinking - tight player raises in a spot where I have A high, don't get fancy, find another spot etc etc. All totally agree. The reason I wanted to share this hand though, was exactly because I don't understand what villain is actually representing here other than top 2 pair (maybe?), so it felt to me like a spot where I wanted to understand (hopefully for as cheap as possible!), what his thought process was here, getting reasonably good odds.

 

[boltonguy]

I would min-click flop back here as V with 2 pair or a set to try to get a calland build the pot on a pretty safe board given your general 3! range. I wouldnt be X turn then. I'd be firing turn for sure even though you have KK in range.

Maybe V is doing this with 89s or TT/JJ for protection and considering all the AX in your 3! range. That could explain the turn X seeing an overcard to those pairs.

 

[Senzrock]

I would min-click flop back here as V with 2 pair or a set to try to get a calland build the pot on a pretty safe board given your general 3! range. I wouldnt be X turn then. I'd be firing turn for sure even though you have KK in range.

Maybe V is doing this with 89s or TT/JJ for protection and considering all the AX in your 3! range. That could explain the turn X seeing an overcard to those pairs.

Once villain checked back the turn, it did feel like A8/99/TT type of hand to me.

 

[Senzrock]

BACK TO THE ACTION

Context:

We are playing in our weekly $40 rebuy tournament that runs Wednesday nights. Two tables, we have all 15 players in still, now nearing the end of the one-hour rebuy period. Generally play is fairly loose during the rebuy period, as are probably most of the rebuy tournaments you all play for friendly stakes. To give a sense of the payouts, 1st: $510, 2nd: $280, 3rd: 170. There is also a points structure for the league.

Hand: 8-handed table, blinds at: 40/80 with a $10 Ante.


Action:

UTG: Folds
UTG+1: Folds
Villain (Tight Player): Raises to 240 ($23,015)
HJ: Folds
CO: Folds
BTN: Folds
SB Hero: ($18,431)
BB: Tight Player ($19,652)

Hero raises to $1100 (out of position, with a hand like AK, I tend to lean on going larger rather than smaller. I don't mind having to fold to a large 4bet here if I really need to. Anything less than 800 here I think is a mistake as we give good odds to any two suited connectors and have to play out of position. I want to make villain pay here for dominated Ax and maybe force him to fold a few small pairs that are ahead of us.

BB: folds
Villain: Calls $1100

Flop ($2360 in the middle):

Hero (SB): Bets $1041
Villain (MP): Raises to $2400
Hero (SB: Calls $1359

Pot: $7160

Turn:

Hero (SB): Checks
Villain (MP): Checks behind

River: (pot still $7160)

Action on the hero? It feels like a decently safe card to value bet at this point given our analysis that villain is rarely checking back better than AK. Yes, one draw does get there T9, but as many have said, it seems like T9 is unlikely given that villain is a tighter player. Do we value bet here? If so, what sizing do we like? Do we play it conservatively and go into check-call mode here? Are we missing value if we check and villain checks behind with A8/99/TT etc.?

 

[Zr1]

As played i just want to get to showdown cheap check-call Is the best line here. If villain checks behind im happy. If we bet and he raises what now? We lose a bet and dont even get to showdown. I think we are in bad shape but as played i can call a reasonable bet on the end. I would not risk losing a bet by having to fold to a raise cause we are beat a good majority of the time and b) when we do have best hand we allow him to make us fold

 

[boltonguy]

i like a X/C here. rather call a bet than face a raise
maybe he value owns himself with 99

 

[warma]

I really want to see V’s cards. I’m no longer expecting to see them, however.

As noted earlier, do you have KJ? Unlikely. Jacks? Unlikely. So as V, I’d see a bet as a bluff or something to keep the total low. If you check or bet small, I get excited and bet big, repping Jacks (and hope you fold). That story line works.

If you bet big, I call with a set of Jacks, maybe if I somehow have 2 pair (unlikely), otherwise fold.

Not sure there’s an amount that lets you see V’s cards. So let’s cross our fingers, bet large, and hope for the win and maybe a show.

 

[grebe]

as played, check call. I don't think we are missing a ton of value against this player. Against a station, maybe. Against a LAG, I'm on board with thin value bet/fold.

 

[Senzrock]

If villain checks behind im happy.

I generally agree with the check-call line on this river but I do disagree with this above. Seeing as we hit our "gin" card on the turn, and villain checked it back, I am personally NOT happy when we check river and he checks back. That's two streets of most likely putting $0 in when we are ahead and only putting $ in when we were behind (potentially).

 

[Schmendr1ck]

Turn: I said earlier in the thread that I might donk against some opponents if I hit TP on the turn. I'm leaning away from that here, though. I don't think Villain's range contains enough draws, and he doesn't sounds sticky/loose enough to continue with a worse hand. So donking probably folds out all worse hands and gets a call or raise from all better hands. Check-call is fine here.

River: Not my favorite card. The only draw that Villain can have (T9) gets there, and pocket jacks are now beating us as well. I'm checking and will call a half-pot bet, but if Villain bombs it, I'm going to throw up in my mouth a little bit.

 

[JMC9389]

As played, I go for thin value on the river to the tune of about 2500. Insta fold to any raise or shove.

 

[Senzrock]

As noted earlier, do you have KJ? Unlikely. Jacks? Unlikely. So as V, I’d see a bet as a bluff or something to keep the total low. If you check or bet small, I get excited and bet big, repping Jacks (and hope you fold). That story line works.

I followed you partially here, but was a little confused that we can't have JJ but somehow Villain then turns around and reps JJ himself? I think we do need to be consistent here. Also, seeing that villain is a tight player, would he really be turning his hand into a bluff on this river? Also unlikely right?

 

[Senzrock]

The only draw that Villain can have (T9)

Villain can also have 65s here I think, but agreed on the rest.

 

[Senzrock]

BACK TO THE ACTION

Context:

We are playing in our weekly $40 rebuy tournament that runs Wednesday nights. Two tables, we have all 15 players in still, now nearing the end of the one-hour rebuy period. Generally play is fairly loose during the rebuy period, as are probably most of the rebuy tournaments you all play for friendly stakes. To give a sense of the payouts, 1st: $510, 2nd: $280, 3rd: 170. There is also a points structure for the league.

Hand: 8-handed table, blinds at: 40/80 with a $10 Ante.


Action:

UTG: Folds
UTG+1: Folds
Villain (Tight Player): Raises to 240 ($23,015)
HJ: Folds
CO: Folds
BTN: Folds
SB Hero: ($18,431)
BB: Tight Player ($19,652)

Hero raises to $1100 (out of position, with a hand like AK, I tend to lean on going larger rather than smaller. I don't mind having to fold to a large 4bet here if I really need to. Anything less than 800 here I think is a mistake as we give good odds to any two suited connectors and have to play out of position. I want to make villain pay here for dominated Ax and maybe force him to fold a few small pairs that are ahead of us.

BB: folds
Villain: Calls $1100

Flop ($2360 in the middle):

Hero (SB): Bets $1041
Villain (MP): Raises to $2400
Hero (SB: Calls $1359

Pot: $7160

Turn:

Hero (SB): Checks
Villain (MP): Checks behind

River: (pot still $7160)

Hero (SB): Leads for $2200 into $7160
Villain (MP): Raises pretty quickly to $9300

Hero: ????

 

[Senzrock]

BACK TO THE ACTION

Context:

We are playing in our weekly $40 rebuy tournament that runs Wednesday nights. Two tables, we have all 15 players in still, now nearing the end of the one-hour rebuy period. Generally play is fairly loose during the rebuy period, as are probably most of the rebuy tournaments you all play for friendly stakes. To give a sense of the payouts, 1st: $510, 2nd: $280, 3rd: 170. There is also a points structure for the league.

Hand: 8-handed table, blinds at: 40/80 with a $10 Ante.


Action:

UTG: Folds
UTG+1: Folds
Villain (Tight Player): Raises to 240 ($23,015)
HJ: Folds
CO: Folds
BTN: Folds
SB Hero: ($18,431)
BB: Tight Player ($19,652)

Hero raises to $1100 (out of position, with a hand like AK, I tend to lean on going larger rather than smaller. I don't mind having to fold to a large 4bet here if I really need to. Anything less than 800 here I think is a mistake as we give good odds to any two suited connectors and have to play out of position. I want to make villain pay here for dominated Ax and maybe force him to fold a few small pairs that are ahead of us.

BB: folds
Villain: Calls $1100

Flop ($2360 in the middle):

Hero (SB): Bets $1041
Villain (MP): Raises to $2400
Hero (SB: Calls $1359

Pot: $7160

Turn:

Hero (SB): Checks
Villain (MP): Checks behind

River: (pot still $7160)

Hero (SB): Leads for $2200 into $7160
Villain (MP): Raises pretty quickly to $9300

Hero: ????

Hero analysis in game: I think with the check back on the turn, I often have the best hand. I do not think he has T9 very often so want to get value out of 99, TT, QQ type of hands, maybe even a very stubborn A8s given that my lead is for less than 1/3 pot on the river. Given that he is on the tighter side, I did not think in game about the possibility of him raising this river. My first instinct once he raised of course was FML - but I was still so confused what he was doing this with. Exactly JJ? He bets his sets and 2 pairs on the turn right? Why would he raise this river with 87s? Doesn't make sense. So then it becomes... a very narrow range of exactly JJ or T9s. Tough spot for sure.

 

[JMC9389]

BACK TO THE ACTION

Context:

We are playing in our weekly $40 rebuy tournament that runs Wednesday nights. Two tables, we have all 15 players in still, now nearing the end of the one-hour rebuy period. Generally play is fairly loose during the rebuy period, as are probably most of the rebuy tournaments you all play for friendly stakes. To give a sense of the payouts, 1st: $510, 2nd: $280, 3rd: 170. There is also a points structure for the league.

Hand: 8-handed table, blinds at: 40/80 with a $10 Ante.


Action:

UTG: Folds
UTG+1: Folds
Villain (Tight Player): Raises to 240 ($23,015)
HJ: Folds
CO: Folds
BTN: Folds
SB Hero: ($18,431)
BB: Tight Player ($19,652)

Hero raises to $1100 (out of position, with a hand like AK, I tend to lean on going larger rather than smaller. I don't mind having to fold to a large 4bet here if I really need to. Anything less than 800 here I think is a mistake as we give good odds to any two suited connectors and have to play out of position. I want to make villain pay here for dominated Ax and maybe force him to fold a few small pairs that are ahead of us.

BB: folds
Villain: Calls $1100

Flop ($2360 in the middle):

Hero (SB): Bets $1041
Villain (MP): Raises to $2400
Hero (SB: Calls $1359

Pot: $7160

Turn:

Hero (SB): Checks
Villain (MP): Checks behind

River: (pot still $7160)

Hero (SB): Leads for $2200 into $7160
Villain (MP): Raises pretty quickly to $9300

Hero: ????

FOLD

This reeks of a set.

 

[boltonguy]

puke/fold
Way too big a call for top pair top kicker IMHO. Might call with 2 pair here (KJs) but not liking that.

 

[Schmendr1ck]

Villain can also have 65s here I think, but agreed on the rest.

If he's opening 65s from MP and calling a 3!, he's not as tight as I thought he was.

 

[JMC9389]

Hero analysis in game: I think with the check back on the turn, I often have the best hand. I do not think he has T9 very often so want to get value out of 99, TT, QQ type of hands, maybe even a very stubborn A8s given that my lead is for less than 1/3 pot on the river. Given that he is on the tighter side, I did not think in game about the possibility of him raising this river. My first instinct once he raised of course was FML - but I was still so confused what he was doing this with. Exactly JJ? He bets his sets and 2 pairs on the turn right? Why would he raise this river with 87s? Doesn't make sense. So then it becomes... a very narrow range of exactly JJ or T9s. Tough spot for sure.

I think Jack's are possible here. Based on your description of Villain, I don't see 9/10 being in his opening range, even if it's suited.

I'm wagering that they flopped a set of 8's or 7's here as a middle pair would certainly be in most Tight opening ranges. It's a coin flip against AK but I think Villain absolutely bombed the flop. If the board pairs or a flush comes on the board, you could get a little tricky and go over the top to rep a boat or a flush, but I think Hero has been behind here from the beginning, and the relatively dry board doesn't help Hero here to run a bluff.

 

[Schmendr1ck]

puke/fold

All. Day. Long.

 

[Senzrock]

If he's opening 65s from MP and calling a 3!, he's not as tight as I thought he was.

I said this earlier, but I think that actually most players, tight or not, do choose to open suited connectors in a $40 rebuy tournament (still in rebuy period). If we assume that tight players only play AA/KK/QQ/JJ, we need to examine our assumptions a bit closer imo. We see tight players show up with decidedly not "tight" hands at showdown, but I think mentally we still automatically only assign these players the very top of their range.

 

[Schmendr1ck]

I think Jack's are possible here. Based on your description of Villain, I don't see 9/10 being in his opening range, even if it's suited.

I'm wagering that they flopped a set of 8's or 7's here as a middle pair would certainly be in most Tight opening ranges. It's a coin flip against AK but I think Villain absolutely bombed the flop. If the board pairs or a flush comes on the board, you could get a little tricky and go over the top to rep a boat or a flush, but I think Hero has been behind here from the beginning, and the relatively dry board doesn't help Hero here to run a bluff.

To me, this hand as played absolutely reeks of JJ: tight player raises MP and calls a large 3-bet, raises the c-bet on an 8-high flop, checks back the King turn, and raises big when a J hits the river.

 

[RainmanTrail]

Easy fold

 

[Schmendr1ck]

I said this earlier, but I think that actually most players, tight or not, do choose to open suited connectors in a $40 rebuy tournament (still in rebuy period). If we assume that tight players only play AA/KK/QQ/JJ, we need to examine our assumptions a bit closer imo. We see tight players show up with decidedly not "tight" hands at showdown, but I think mentally we still automatically only assign these players the very top of their range.

Good point. This thread is weeks old, so I forgot it was still in the rebuy period.

 

[Marius L]

I might call given that this is a rebuy tourney, lol, but I have a tendency to be a bit on the sticky side. Probably better to just fold if he is in fact a tight player that does not run a lot of bluffs.

 

[boltonguy]

If he is doing this with JTs he can have the pot.

 

[RainmanTrail]

To me, this hand as played absolutely reeks of JJ: tight player raises MP and calls a large 3-bet, raises the c-bet on an 8-high flop, checks back the King turn, and raises big when a J hits the river.

Exactly. river was a pretty terrible card for us IMO. T9s is in most players' ranges here, as is JJ. Villain's range is pretty narrow here (assuming our read is correct about player type). Before seeing the river card, my read was that he most likely has QQ, JJ, TT, or T9s. is about the worst card in the deck for that range.

 

[Senzrock]

Good point. This thread is weeks old, so I forgot it was still in the rebuy period.

Hey hey, I tried to keep this thread concise and moving along! LOL - I think you have me mistaken for @Beakertwang

 

[RainmanTrail]

Honestly, a river call here isn't just questionable or bad. It's terrible. People talk about having leaks in their bucket, but this isn't just a "leak". This is a bucket with no bottom. If you are even remotely contemplating a call on this river, then this is most likely why you are a losing or break-even player. That or your read about player types is way off (if villain is raising this river without a set or the straight, then our read about him is wrong).