PAHWM: AK on the button against an any-two-cards passive player (1 Viewer)

[Random Phish]

Similarly, what type of Hero does the table think they are facing? Will He stack off 300+bb with only one pair or not?

Some dude on high stakes poker bluff shoved air into Jen Tilly’s AK. Commentary was great!

 

[200 Motels]

A player who can 'show up with any two' isn't necessarily the guy who will bluff off their stack with a draw or value bet a worse Ace. If you've never seen him bet two streets with a worse hand, then there's def merit to folding on the turn. You're going to have a very tough river decision, so if this guy has gone bonkers with a draw or bad top pair in the past, you could get it in on the turn. SPR will be 1 on the river so stack sizes are fine size for a turn jam.

 

[Moxie Mike]

If I call, the pot is $245, and I have about about 180 behind. If the river is essentially a blank, I don't think I'm folding to any bet? Why not charge draws?

There's merit to this logic. Another way to look at it is 'what if the river card is gross'... like a spade or a 4 or a 5 and you're facing a huge bet. Even a queen or a 3rd heart isn't a great card for you since AQ is definitely a possibility. So getting it in on the turn has merit since it absolves you of ever being in a tough river spot. The downside is huge though since jamming the turn maximizes your risk-of-ruin.

So I don't think that's the best line EV-wise. Given the Villain's line on the flop and turn, I doubt you're going to induce many folds and you will be called by many hands that have you crushed. You're hoping for calls from weaker aces and FDs but that's pretty much it.

By flatting the turn bet, you preserve the chance to get to showdown more cheaply. There's a decent chance the Villain won't love a spade or a heart on the turn... or a 4 or 5 for that matter. It's highly possible that he fears the same cards you do. If once of these cards hits the board, he may check or put out a small blocker-bet in which case you can easily call or just check back given the chance.

These types of situations are as much about mitigating losses as they are maximizing gains. In this case, getting to showdown while minimizing stack damage is the best course of action.

 

[Beakertwang]

So of course, hero jams. It was foolhardy, for sure, but I just didn’t believe him here. It was either great poker instincts, or superior stupidity.

Villain snap calls and shows , for a low flush draw and a gutshot. Hero is about 70% to win, so obviously the hits the river.

I actually feel ok about the turn jam, but I wish I had shown aggression on the flop.

As an aside, after the hand, villain typed “PLAY BALL!” in the chat, then left two or three hands later. I was pretty tilted after that, but just my mood, not my play.

I was told later that he had been drinking too much, but the hit-and-run did not sit well with me.

 

[JMC9389]

Meh, donks going to donk.

Would you have found a fold on that river if you had just called the turn? With these draw heavy boards, I agree with @Moxie Mike here. You can shove on a clean river or you can fold to a card you don't like.

 

[MrCatPants]

Meh, donks going to donk.

Would you have found a fold on that river if you had just called the turn? With these draw heavy boards, I agree with @Moxie Mike here. You can shove on a clean river or you can fold to a card you don't like.

I dont see how one could find a fold on that river, given the pot odds at that point. Hard to view the 5 as a scare card even though it puts a one liner on the board.

 

[JMC9389]

The more I think about it, the more I like a raise on the flop even though I originally advocated for a call. Top/top isn't likely to improve post flop all too much, and on a draw heavy board, I'm trying to get in as much money as possible before the hand is bested by a straight or a flush.

 

[Beakertwang]

Considering how he played the hand, and that liquor was involved, I suspect a flop raise would have yielded the same end result.

 

[JMC9389]

Considering how he played the hand, and that liquor was involved, I suspect a flop raise would have yielded the same end result.

In that case, I just say "nice hand" and reload. Over the long run you're going to win more and bigger pots off of this player.

Offer to buy him drinks the whole night if you're playing live.

 

[Moxie Mike]

So of course, hero jams. It was foolhardy, for sure, but I just didn’t believe him here. It was either great poker instincts, or superior stupidity.

Villain snap calls and shows , for a low flush draw and a gutshot. Hero is about 70% to win, so obviously the hits the river.

I actually feel ok about the turn jam, but I wish I had shown aggression on the flop.

Think of it this way: If you raise the flop he probably goes away with just the gutter and the BD FD. Maybe he calls it off - but probably not. Only the most degenerate of fish are that reckless. So by raising you get to drag a modest pot virtually every time. But by flatting the flop, you gave yourself a great chance to win his entire stack.

In other words, raising the flop wins you $100 ~100% of the time. But by flatting, you gave yourself a 70% chance to win a ~$600 pot = $420.

So in terms of EV, you literally played this hand perfectly by jamming the turn. But that was ONLY because the Villain made an unprofitable call. But the question remains as to whether that the most profitable play from a macro standpoint.

Another angle is what does he do if the river bricks? Think he just checks and folds if you bet? No he probably fires again since inducing a fold is the only way he can win. So in terms of EV checking the flop and turn are better than aggression since Villain will likely put additional money in the pot even though they have no chance of winning.

As it ran out, it's also possible he would have bet less than your remaining stack on the river with the nuts hoping to induce a call. There was essentially 4 to a straight which might kill his action. So you could end up saving chips that way too.

 

[Random Phish]

In other words, raising the flop wins you $100 ~100% of the time. But by flatting, you gave yourself a 70% chance to win a ~$600 pot = $420.

I really like approaching it from the EV standpoint, but I think you also need to consider variance and what your stack looks like at the end of the hand. So taking the pot 100% of the time, hero’s stack is $380, the EV of the other option is $420, so taking the pot immediately Hero gives up $40 while reducing variance. Is it worth it? Idk, if you play a million hands obv the highest EV line is best. For the average rec player I guess that decision isn’t as black and white.

 

[Moxie Mike]

I really like approaching it from the EV standpoint, but I think you also need to consider variance and what your stack looks like at the end of the hand. So taking the pot 100% of the time, hero’s stack is $380, the EV of the other option is $420, so taking the pot immediately Hero gives up $40 while reducing variance. Is it worth it? Idk, if you play a million hands obv the highest EV line is best. For the average rec player I guess that decision isn’t as black and white.

The only reason to minimize variance is to realize long-run equity sooner. This is why people run it twice.

So here's an example to illustrate the point: If you jammed all in every time you're dealt AA or KK regardless of the action you will drag the pot preflop the vast majority of the time... virtually guaranteeing that you will win a small pot every time you do this. This of course reduces variance because you're going to win 100% of the time when they all fold, and 75-80% of the time when you get called. But is that the best play?

No, of course not. Because you stand to win a lot more by not blowing them off their hand preflop.

So to the average rec player trying to avoid losing their stack might be fine since they're not really trying to make money. But this is the strategy forum, and it's reasonable that by posting OP is interested in becoming a better player. Better players value long-term EV over short-term results.

 

[Beakertwang]

OP is interested in becoming a better player.