Finally caught up on TWD last night. I'll tank for a bit, and then make my call...
- 95% Abraham. Lucille/Negan's victim gets hit, then straightens up. We saw Abraham straighten up when Negan walked the line of prisoners intimidating them. Abe wasn't going to give Negan any more satisfaction. You can kill him, but you can't take his spirit. Also, he's the only one that has the strength to straighten up after being whacked in the noggin. All the women (this includes the woosy Aaron) would have dropped like a house of cards. Darryll has already gone through the wringer and would have also gone down. As mentioned, Rick/Carl couldn't be killed, due to Negans threats. Glenn wouldn't straighten up, he would take one last glance at Maggie. Therefore, Abraham gets the send-off.
- 5% One of the writers. One of my earliest posts ITT mentioned that you cannot use logic or science to determine the outcome of a TV show. Writers do stupid things because that's how they think things work. They don't have backgrounds in physics, psychology, or engineering. Things get written in to serve their end-goals, not because it makes sence. They write it, we (or the producers/writers/cast) make up BS explanations as to why it happened.
On a different front, I've always believed the best movies are the ones with a really likable bad-guy. Love to hate personalities, or simply awesome villains. Negan promises to be one of those compelling villains. I suspect he'll survive more than a single season, and his final death will be pure Hollywood.
Finally, to the Carl haters. Carl's a teenager. Go to the f*cking mall, and point out a single teenage boy that you don't think should get Negan's bat. 30(ish) years ago, some old guy probably wanted us to be the next zombie victim. If you hate Carl, chances are he's playing his part perfectly.