Tournament bubble PF decision (1 Viewer)

[gopherblue]

I agree with @ChaosRock and @Chippy McChiperson: I’m insta-calling here, assuming I have OP’s knowledge of the players involved. Moreso because clearly the big stack is shoving for isolation value against me. But also because the most likely hands for the all-in are either small/medium pairs or Ax, and the most likely hand for the big stack shove is Ax. If a small/medium pair, I’ve got that crushed and if both have Ax, they are blockers to each other (and if AQ, I’m a blocker as well).

 

[AWenger]

I'm in the call camp. I'm sort of bewildered at those advocating a fold in a $40 home tournament in a 4-handed spot with QQ from the BB, with a stack of around 15 BB, with only around 46 BB on the entire table, even facing 2 all-ins. Some other spots, yes -- but 4 handed?

$40 home tournament. 13 runners with five rebuys. Blinds 4k/8k. Top 3 pays, 4 left. Only one decision to make here.
UTG is calling station-ish. Desperately wants to make the money. Stack ~40k.

I know I've been UTG with 5 big blinds, and shoved a worse-than-typical hand because I knew the blinds were coming next. If UTG folds and waits for the next hand, he's BB, with stack size behind of 4 BB. If UTG ends up folding the next BB & SB, his stack size will be 3.5 BB for the next orbit.

Then, what's the button's shoving range -- is the button folding any hand such as: AT+ A9s+? 66+? KQ+ Some people might even shove with QJ+, 22+, or any A+ hand there.

A few things I didn't see listed that could sway the decision to a fold:

• Right now, the BB of 8000 is around 2.2% of all the chips in play (~370,000). A tournament commonly ends when the BB=4-5% of chips in play, and become a shove-fest/luck-fest. How quickly are blinds going up next level, level after? (If there's another 20-30 min at this level, than maybe can wait for a better spot. If blinds are going up quickly, what are the chances a better spot even develops.
• In this tournament format, is it common (or allowed) that the final 3 or final 2 chop the prize pool, or is it always played out? I guess I'd be more likely to fold if chops are common.

 

[detroitdad]

I agree with @ChaosRock and @Chippy McChiperson: I’m insta-calling here, assuming I have OP’s knowledge of the players involved. Moreso because clearly the big stack is shoving for isolation value against me. But also because the most likely hands for the all-in are either small/medium pairs or Ax, and the most likely hand for the big stack shove is Ax. If a small/medium pair, I’ve got that crushed and if both have Ax, they are blockers to each other (and if AQ, I’m a blocker as well).

I know my skill level is no where near chippys and Paulo's. I just want to point out that I was the "first" one to advocate the call. I'm only pointing this out because I'm usually wrong lol.

My chips beat his into the pot. That isn't disrespecting Marc , he'll make that move with about anything in that position. He loves applying pressure.

A very solid player

 

[gopherblue]

I know my skill level is no where near chippys and Paulo's. I just want to point out that I was the "first" one to advocate the call. I'm only pointing this out because I'm usually wrong lol.

Apologies. I just don’t like admitting you’re right.

 

[detroitdad]

Apologies. I just don’t like admitting you’re right.

Fair enough

 

[SkywayParkFR]

Fold

Oh wait 40$ home game it’s a snap call

 

[WedgeRock]

Not that it matters but SB was Legs and

Noted, and editted. I saw Legs in my head but typed Jaws. As you mention, he folded, so there's very little relevance, other than future hands.

And FWIW, third place paid $108, not that I knew it at the time. There is a championship rake off the buyin, but not rebuys.

How quickly are blinds going up next level, level after? (If there's another 20-30 min at this level, than maybe can wait for a better spot. If blinds are going up quickly, what are the chances a better spot even develops.

Really good point. This was late on a weeknight, and games are not designed to go on late. They can become a shovefest. I'd guess 15-20 minute levels total, this level ending <10 minutes and next level being 5k/10k.

I think chops are allowed. In fact, once the short stacks cleared, button would almost certainly offer a chip, as it was nearing midnight. (No, I did not get heads up with button... )

 

[Steve Birrer]

I think this is one of those situations where there are two camps and both are right. There just isn't a wrong decision on this one. I am folding but I see nothing wrong with the call crowd either.

 

[WedgeRock]

Callers:
@detroitdad
@Frogzilla
@arch3r
@Chippy McChiperson
@gopherblue
@AWenger
@SkywayParkFR

Folders:
@BGinGA
@colter ripton
@doughboy63
@Irish

Slight nod to the callers.

In the end, I figured I was good against UTG and it was extremely unlikely that UTG would best both me and the button and I'd lose the button, eliminating me in 4th and out of the money. I was thinking about Vegas and the fucking Mirage. I didn't think there would be as good a spot as this (or at least as good if cards PF) and if I won, I'd far and away be the chip leader.

I can see the value in folding, but I figured if I folded and if UTG was eliminated, I'm still not guaranteed any better than 3rd with button extending his chip lead. Yes, I was better able to weather the blinds than SB, but this was a chance to knockout a short stack and leave both opponents in the 5-7 BB range, putting me in the driver's seat for the win.

I called.

UTG tabled AQ.
Button tabled AK.

I think I was about 53% against both, 57% against the button and 70% against UTG. Of course, I really needed to beat the button and wasn't worried too much about UTG (blockers to both his cards). I realize it's not strictly equity in a tournament, but I was happy about the call.

 

[colter ripton]

Callers:
@detroitdad
@Frogzilla
@arch3r
@Chippy McChiperson
@gopherblue
@AWenger
@SkywayParkFR

Folders:
@BGinGA
@colter ripton
@doughboy63
@Irish

Slight nod to the callers.

In the end, I figured I was good against UTG and it was extremely unlikely that UTG would best both me and the button, eliminating me in 4th and out of the money. I was thinking about Vegas and the fucking Mirage. I didn't think there would be as good a spot as this (or at least as good if cards PF) and if I won, I'd far and away be the chip leader.

I can see the value in folding, but I figured if I folded and if UTG was eliminated, I'm still not guaranteed any better than 3rd with button extending his chip lead. Yes, I was better able to weather the blinds than SB, but this was a chance to knockout a short stack and leave both opponents in the 5-7 BB range, putting me in the driver's seat for the win.

I called.

UTG tabled AQ.
Button tabled AK.

I think I was about 53% against both, 57% against the button and 70% against UTG. Of course, I really needed to beat the button and wasn't worried too much about UTG (blockers to both his cards). I realize it's not strictly equity in a tournament, but I was happy about the call.

And........... what happened

 

[WedgeRock]

And........... what happened

You can't give me like 15 minutes of being right?

Flop: KJ9

Turn: K

River: (not a queen)

GG, me.

Note, a river T would've sucked balls.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Yeah but utg had like 4% equity preflop. You still made the money and were like 56% to have 77% of the chips in play, and that's with button having near the top of his range. I still think it's the right decision.

 

[Irish]

You can't give me like 15 minutes of being right?

Flop: KJ9

Turn: K

River: (not a queen)

GG, me.

Note, a river T would've sucked balls.

Both their hands make sense as played, so you were a little over a coin flip overall (but ahead PF). That's the big reason why I liked the fold better, I absolutely hate getting knocked out of the latter stages of a tourney on a coin flip that could have been avoided. Tough break though given you were ahead PF. You and UTG split 3rd place money then?

Maybe I'm misreading the hand but wouldn't a river 10 have just doubled up the short stack and shipped 80k your direction?

 

[gopherblue]

Oof. I would’ve been fist-pumping those tabled hands, at least until the flop. But you got third so at least you didn’t bubble. Good call.

 

[WedgeRock]

Maybe I'm misreading the hand but wouldn't a river 10 have just doubled up the short stack and shipped 80k your direction?

Yeah, you're right. Ten would have given UTG broadway but would've doubled me up (the rest of my stack that I didn't give to UTG) through button. Button and SB would've been short, while UTG and I would have been big stacks. I guess that's not a bad result.

I guess at the time, I was thinking even a T wouldn't give me a clean win. I was looking at one lone out to the double win.

 

[Marc Hedrick]

I think chops are allowed. In fact, once the short stacks cleared, button would almost certainly offer a chip, as it was nearing midnight. (No, I did not get heads up with button... )

I would have offered, but I don't think chops are allowed @ChaosRock ?

FWIW, I'm also in the snap call camp with QQ in your spot. There were some good arguments made for the fold, but none of those would have even crossed my mind before I hit the call button. Super unlikely you'll have a better spot to have a dominating chip lead like you would have had queens held.

 

[WedgeRock]

Now that you say that, I think you're right.. no chops.

 

[JustinInMN]

Late to the party, I think this really is the line. Without running numbers my instinct would be to find a fold with JJ and always call with KK.

And 60% equity we’re breakeven:
Fold: $224 (50/50)
Call: $224 (43/17/29/11)

Maybe QQ is a fold if UTG is super tight with a 5 BB stack. ICM sucks.

This would lean me towards a fold because it's hard to imagine a 60% spot unless I was against no more than one overcard. That said, UTG should have a super wide range, maybe even ATC. If the Button expects this he probably has a wide range as well. Maybe 40-50% of hands. It's close. KK is just so much easier to call.

 

[ChaosRock]

As I wrote above @WedgeRock , you can definitely include my name under "Callers".

Answering some of the questions: Levels are 20 mins long until total number of BB in play gets super small, then it goes to 10 mins since the likelihood of the the level being heads-up or 3-handed at most is very high.

"Chops" are not allowed because we are not only playing for prize money but also for points league (top 4 in points at the end of the season get paid) and a seat at the free-roll TOC (top 8 in points get a seat). Since we have random players, not playing the full league, occasionally, chops might create issues with points being given up easily by the non-league player.

 

[Frogzilla]

Late to the party, I think this really is the line. Without running numbers my instinct would be to find a fold with JJ and always call with KK.



This would lean me towards a fold because it's hard to imagine a 60% spot unless I was against no more than one overcard. That said, UTG should have a super wide range, maybe even ATC. If the Button expects this he probably has a wide range as well. Maybe 40-50% of hands. It's close. KK is just so much easier to call.

Uh QQ is a monster against ATC at 80% equity.

If he’s shoving something like top 15% (down to 55, A8o, QJs etc) then QQ has 67% equity

It’s only if he has range of 99+, AQo+ that we are in trouble with 57%ish equity. Of course, in a cash game, fist pump call but not in tourneys on the stone bubble

ETA: my numbers were equities against ranges heads up, as that’s more widely understood. We need 43% equity in the pot 3-ways.

 

[JustinInMN]

Uh QQ is a monster against ATC at 80% equity.

Yes, and in a heads up pot this is such an obvious call. With the button re-shoving even with weaker Ax and Kx holdings eat into that equity even if UTG has a wide range.

 

[Frogzilla]

I think we were on different pages. You need 43% equity in the 3-way situation.

 

[ChaosRock]

With the button re-shoving even with weaker Ax and Kx holdings eat into that equity even if UTG has a wide range.

It does, however, the pot now is ever so larger. Smaller equity over a larger pot.

 

[ChaosRock]

I think we were on different pages. You need 43% equity in the 3-way situation.

And that's about what QQ have in that spot, depending on some assumptions of course. If BTN is shoving only with TT+, AQ+ (tight imo) QQ have about 43% 3-way with UTG shoving tightish. If one widens UTG range keeping BTN the same, QQ equity can go up to 46%. If we also include more combos in BTN shove, our equity is even larger obviously.

 

[JustinInMN]

I think we were on different pages. You need 43% equity in the 3-way situation.

It does, however, the pot now is ever so larger. Smaller equity over a larger pot.

I was referring to @Frogzilla 's ICM post where he calculated a need to be at 60% equity for call/fold to be break-even. I took this figure and just made estimates that one of one overcard holdings will be 30-35% percent against us plus whatever equity utg would have as well.

I'm confused as to why that number is now 43% if we're still talking ICM. (Maybe I missed something.). If it's 43% then I would agree QQ becomes an easier call.

 

[detroitdad]

If BTN is shoving only with TT+, AQ+ (tight imo) QQ have about 43%

For the few of us that "know" the button. We know that his range in this spot is substantially higher

 

[JustinInMN]

That's the question, how wide are we talking in terms of the button. I would assume UTG is on at least 50% of hand, and maybe ATC except op thinks he's trying to ladder.

So this means button can reshove wider than usual.

Even if he's shoving any A, any K, and all pairs that's not great news for QQ. (Though I don't have a range calculator handy.) How often is button shoving two cards queen and under. Maybe T9s-QJs, QT? If those and the low pairs are the only hands we "crush," is that really great?

 

[detroitdad]

How often is button shoving two cards queen and under.

In this specific spot with his chip lead. I would say "frequently". I've watched him in similar spots so this with two cards lower than a 10. IMO, I could be wrong. I don't think he is playing his cards as much as he is playing the situation/players. He obviously looked at @WedgeRock as a weak player that would fold to his aggression

Isn't that right @Marc Hedrick

 

[ChaosRock]

In this specific spot with his chip lead. I would say "frequently". I've watched him in similar spots so this with two cards lower than a 10. IMO, I could be wrong. I don't think he is playing his cards as much as he is playing the situation/players. He obviously looked at @WedgeRock as a weak player that would fold to his aggression

Isn't that right @Marc Hedrick

My feeling is the opposite actually, Bill. I dodn't think BTN is ever shoving two live cards under Q in that spot with the blinds still to act. I could be wrong though. I can speak for myself I wouldn't.

 

[detroitdad]

My feeling is the opposite actually, Bill. I dodn't think BTN is ever shoving two live cards under Q in that spot with the blinds still to act. I could be wrong though. I can speak for myself I wouldn't.

I wouldn't either. Were talking about Marc. He is really good player, that is really good at utilizing pure aggression. Maybe saying that he would shove "any two" is an exaggeration, but I do think its close.

Again, I could be way off base. I have played a few hands over the last 5 years with Marc. This is my read on him.