Tournament bubble PF decision (2 Viewers)

[Marc Hedrick]

I just like that two players have different reads on what I would be shoving with there.

 

[detroitdad]

I just like that two players have different reads on what I would be shoving with there.

I'm one of the two players. I'm not very good, so take anything I have top say with a grain of salt

 

[JustinInMN]

Obviously I am an observer here, and I totally understand the button has incentive to shove wide here. But button still has to showdown with UTG so I don't think he can be on ATC the same way UTG could be if not for the OP's comment he is trying to last to the money.

So I guess even if I knew the button was unusually loose, I think I still have to give him credit for hands that "run well" against UTG's range. I might only give him two cards over a 9 and all pairs for example, maybe some more suited hands. Even that wide doesn't leave a ton of "crushing" for QQ.

 

[DrStrange]

It seems to me that button's goals are the elimination of UTG and accumulation of chips in a safe manner. It matters how skilled button is - that will affect how he will proceed. A good plan to a LAGtard donkey is not the same good plan a TAG might employ.

UTG has a significant stack vs button. Button needs to have a reason to think his hand is competitive with UTG, he shouldn't be playing with any two cards. Hero is kidding himself if he thinks button's range includes hands that weak.

UTG is a calling station, yet he finds a shove here. This type of player is more likely to be ground down to dust than go out in a blaze of "glory" shoving 65s. I find it reasonable to think he has a "good" hand. Good is relative based on desperation and the shortness of the table.

Button's best interests might be well served by flatting and inviting the blinds to come along. (assuming the table understands implied collusion and will go along) I could see a number of medium strength hands where Button could use this approach profitably.

Button's 4-bet / jam range should be relatively strong. The hands in this range should either dominate UTG or race UTG. Note this depends on what we think button thinks is UTG's range. Not so easy to figure out.

So the questions for Hero are these: a) should he expect button to play JJ- this way? Or would he expect Button to flat with such hands? b) How weak an ace could button have and still 4-bet jam? c) KQs in button's range? d) is Hero ok with a race vs AK? e) Does hero see himself as weaker than the table and thus ready to roll the dice? f) are the other players making proper adjustments for shorthandedness and short stacks?

This is a call in most cash game situations. As noted by others, the ITM considerations and villain reads make the decision ambiguous in a tournament setting. I think the fold camp has a marginally better mathematical argument, but I doubt I would have folded sitting in Hero's seat.

But I am not that good at tournament play -=- DrStrange

 

[WedgeRock]

FTR, Marc is super chill. He can call off or shove and whether he's ahead or behind, whether he catches a river or gets sucked out on, he has the same demeanor. I've never seen him gets pissed at a card table. Not even keeping-it-together-but-angry-on-the-inside. He's just a even-keel player.

Were talking about Marc. He is really good player, that is really good at utilizing pure aggression.

The tournament before this one that I played against him, I flopped quads with position and Marc bet the whole way, including a river all in.

 

[WedgeRock]

So the questions for Hero are these: a) should he expect button to play JJ- this way? Or would he expect Button to flat with such hands?

I think button jams JJ in this position. @Marc Hedrick?

b) How weak an ace could button have and still 4-bet jam?

Button was three betting, not 4-bet jamming, but yes, any ace.

c) KQs in button's range?

Less likely because of my blocker, but for sure.

d) is Hero ok with a race vs AK?

I'd prefer a solid lead v a flip with AK (duh). If I thought about it long enough to give button credit for AK, I probably fold.

e) Does hero see himself as weaker than the table and thus ready to roll the dice?

I respect Marc's play, but I was very comfortable against UTG and SB.

f) are the other players making proper adjustments for shorthandedness and short stacks?

Lol.

 

[WedgeRock]

Further insight on Marc: After scooping this pot and having 80-85% of the chips in play, it took a good while (12? 15 hands?) to put away the small stack. Marc went ice cold on cards and while I agree he'd be shoving/calling shoves pretty wide, it clearly wasn't ATC.

Marc is aggressive, but also understands the math .

 

[Minraiser]

$40 home tournament. 13 runners with five rebuys. Blinds 4k/8k. Top 3 pays, 4 left. Only one decision to make here.

UTG is calling station-ish. Desperately wants to make the money. Stack ~40k.

Button is a solid player who knows how to play big stack bully. He will also risk his tournament if the equity is right. ~150k.

SB is pretty straightforward. ~60k

Hero is the BB with about 120k.

Preflop, UTG shoves for about 40k Button re-shoves for about 160k. SB folds. Action to hero, looks down at QQ. Call all in or fold?

Does a min cash mean a lot to you? If not, go all in and most likely win the whole tournament.