Tournament Situation (1 Viewer)

[seacuke]

Many tournaments that I don't win have a 2-stage death march. There's the "hand that breaks me" and then the "hand that eliminates me." Sometimes these are the same hand, but more often than not, I get my stack (or mind) crippled in a hand and then the elimination is just a swift coup-de-grace away. This is the tale of a "hand that broke me" last year, and I've spent a lot of sleepless moments poring over the hand wondering if I'm a good enough poker player to do things differently.

Early afternoon on day 2 of a 5 day live major tournament. Money bubble has broken, about 900 out of 8400 entrants left.
Hero sits in the 6 seat with approximately T140k. Villain is in the 2 seat with a healthy stack. If I had to guess he was close to T1M but I hadn't been at the table long enough to count. I had recently been moved to this table and sat for 4 hands or so, observing and folding (nothing remarkable presented itself to me during these hands anyway). Then this situation happened:

Blinds are T4k/T8k with a BB ante of T8K.

UTG dealt and raise to T25k. Folds to villain C/O who raises to T60k. Folds to hero, who also folds.

So my questions are:

Should I have just flatted UTG? Then the villain's raise would have probably been to around 25k which I was willing to risk with AQo...

The villain's bully play is pretty obvious, but how many of y'all are going to three bet shove here? (My rationale is that I still had a 15xbb stack afterwords, which is a swing-able weapon if I pick my battles appropriately).

Is that too nitty in this spot of such a multi-day tournament? I definitely had a "stack nursing" problem going on, which obviously is something only I can sort out. I began the day in the top 9% of the field and initially felt really good about myself and my playing (which is maybe why I started nursing my stack early on).

For people who have seen/been in this situation, how often is that villain actually sitting on the goods?

If my play was more correct than mousy, how close is AQo to being a jam-able hand in this situation? It's far from my favorite hand, but maybe it looks better here than I am thinking it does.

For the morbidly curious who have read this far: the coup-de-grace in this particular tournament happened about an hour later, AKo no good vs. 7-7. Standard.

 

[BGinGA]

I'd rather be all-in with AQo than being first-to-act with either a 14bb stack in a 9bb pot or just 10bb in a 18bb pot. Even worse is folding after raising and having just 14bb left.

I'm either limp-shoving, or just shoving UTG out of the gate.

 

[Gunnar]

The open with AQ is not standard there limp it or shove it, we get re-raised by a player we have no information on except he has a big stack. What range are we putting him on here? We have to assume fairly standard as we have no prior knowledge.
55-1010
A10s AJs AQ AK
and ofc JJ-AA
(I assume that big-suited connectors 10J, JQ, KQ would just call)

if we flat and hit a Q and there is no K or we hit an A we are going all-in on the flop, smaller pairs will fold and we will get value from A10 AJ maybe even JJ, QQ, KK depending on if we hit the A or Q. On the other hand we are crushed by the same hands that crush us preflop AA, AK. Villain hitting a lower set is just pure unlucky we can never get away from it if we hit and A or Q regardless.

If the board is not with an A or Q we are check folding as the villain has many pairs in his range.

If we 4bet shove preflop we are getting called by almost every hand in his original 3bet range. Our 18bb shove is full of AQ AJ AK and of course JJ-AA.

Are we ready to shove and flip for a double-up? Then shove it
Are we looking for a spot where we have an 60%+ edge to double up then this is not it. Sure we could get called by an AJ or A10 but we could also run into AA, KK and AK that put us in a bad shape.

I think I would shove here personally, we are left with less than 15bb and pay blinds in the hands after, leaving us with less than 13bb so we are going to be hoping to get QQ-AA to shove. If the plan is to shove smaller pairs or AK AQ later we might as well shove now.

Shove out of the gate would have been an standard play with only 18BB, Limp shove would have also been a good play.

 

[upNdown]

For people who have seen/been in this situation, how often is that villain actually sitting on the goods?

Only when you call him, ha!

In all seriousness, with under 20 big blinds, I’m unlikely to do anything UTG with AQ, other than jamming. It sounds crazy, but unless the entire table has been tip-toeing around like we’re on the bubble, I could find a fold, first to act, in that situation. As played, I’d probably 3-bet jam?

 

[seacuke]

Thanks for the replies all. I didn't think through the ramifications of my bet before making it. @upNdown I could find a pre-action fold there as well - which is probably more along the lines with my style of play than a UTG jam with that sort of hand. I fully admit I was sick of being a mouse that day and that definitely affected my play. Marathons are tough!

 

[upNdown]

Thanks for the replies all. I didn't think through the ramifications of my bet before making it. @upNdown I could find a pre-action fold there as well - which is probably more along the lines with my style of play than a UTG jam with that sort of hand. I fully admit I was sick of being a mouse that day and that definitely affected my play. Marathons are tough!

I hear you. I find I usually make my worst decisions when I get tired of being pushed around.

 

[allforcharity]

I doubt I'd find a fold as 1st to act. Limp with an option to shove if raised back to us if isolated.

 

[BGinGA]

A UTG limp-shove is likely to be viewed by the raiser as very strong. Expect to be losing with AQo if called, but a lot of those raising hands will probably be folding.

Compare that to a UTG short-stack open shove -- the perceived range of the jammer here will be much wider, and will likely be called by a much wider range as well.

I'm no bot, but I suspect the latter is more +EV for AQo.... since more hands that are coin-flips or behind pre-flop will be calling.

 

[Kentucky]

I thought these two comments were interesting…

Many tournaments that I don't win have a 2-stage death march. There's the "hand that breaks me" and then the "hand that eliminates me." … I get my stack (or mind) crippled in a hand and then the elimination is just a swift coup-de-grace away.

the coup-de-grace in this particular tournament happened about an hour later, AKo no good vs. 7-7. Standard.

I think you are always going to have a two stage death if you shy away from jamming AQo here. It feels like we live to fight another day, but really our stack becomes so short (relative to the rest) that there’s no way back (barring an epic run of double ups). Better instead to go out in a blaze of glory with the opportunity for getting a significant double up vs. the big stack. If AKo vs. 7-7 is standard, AQo vs. a likely similar holding should be standard too.

As a Monday morning QB (and absent any imminent ladder ups) I like an open/4-bet jam here but I always tend to break nittier in the moment. This is advice to me as much as you. Poker is hard.

 

[ekricket]

Many tournaments that I don't win have a 2-stage death march. There's the "hand that breaks me" and then the "hand that eliminates me." Sometimes these are the same hand, but more often than not, I get my stack (or mind) crippled in a hand and then the elimination is just a swift coup-de-grace away. This is the tale of a "hand that broke me" last year, and I've spent a lot of sleepless moments poring over the hand wondering if I'm a good enough poker player to do things differently.

Early afternoon on day 2 of a 5 day live major tournament. Money bubble has broken, about 900 out of 8400 entrants left.
Hero sits in the 6 seat with approximately T140k. Villain is in the 2 seat with a healthy stack. If I had to guess he was close to T1M but I hadn't been at the table long enough to count. I had recently been moved to this table and sat for 4 hands or so, observing and folding (nothing remarkable presented itself to me during these hands anyway). Then this situation happened:

Blinds are T4k/T8k with a BB ante of T8K.

UTG dealt and raise to T25k. Folds to villain C/O who raises to T60k. Folds to hero, who also folds.

So my questions are:

Should I have just flatted UTG? Then the villain's raise would have probably been to around 25k which I was willing to risk with AQo...

The villain's bully play is pretty obvious, but how many of y'all are going to three bet shove here? (My rationale is that I still had a 15xbb stack afterwords, which is a swing-able weapon if I pick my battles appropriately).

Is that too nitty in this spot of such a multi-day tournament? I definitely had a "stack nursing" problem going on, which obviously is something only I can sort out. I began the day in the top 9% of the field and initially felt really good about myself and my playing (which is maybe why I started nursing my stack early on).

For people who have seen/been in this situation, how often is that villain actually sitting on the goods?

If my play was more correct than mousy, how close is AQo to being a jam-able hand in this situation? It's far from my favorite hand, but maybe it looks better here than I am thinking it does.

For the morbidly curious who have read this far: the coup-de-grace in this particular tournament happened about an hour later, AKo no good vs. 7-7. Standard.

Fuck all the solvers and position advice and whatever

At this point in the game I’m playing the players. Who’s soft, who is likely to fold, who is distracted, who is short stacked, etc….. that’s where you get your money in. Cards are cards at this point, now I’m betting on everybody else’s shit cards and attitudes, not my cards.

 

[JustinInMN]

Early afternoon on day 2 of a 5 day live major tournament. Money bubble has broken, about 900 out of 8400 entrants left.
Hero sits in the 6 seat with approximately T140k. Villain is in the 2 seat with a healthy stack. If I had to guess he was close to T1M but I hadn't been at the table long enough to count. I had recently been moved to this table and sat for 4 hands or so, observing and folding (nothing remarkable presented itself to me during these hands anyway). Then this situation happened:

Blinds are T4k/T8k with a BB ante of T8K.

UTG dealt and raise to T25k. Folds to villain C/O who raises to T60k. Folds to hero, who also folds.

So my questions are:

Should I have just flatted UTG? Then the villain's raise would have probably been to around 25k which I was willing to risk with AQo...

I wouldn't hate an open-flat here. I don't hate the open to 3BB that you made here. (And honestly, it's the play I would probably make.) I don't hate the idea of an open shove that others are suggesting either. (This would be my second choice, and if I was using this play, I would just have to be aware that I need to open shove some premiums as well to avoid giving a sizing tell. But in general 17BB feels a little too big for an open shove, but I don't hate it either.)

But I dislike folding this hand preflop for 4.5 BB more when there is already 13 BB in the pot. Pot is laying you 3:1. If you shove and get called, you will be in a ton of coin flips and the only way you will be worse than 2:1 is against exactly AA or AK. (Even against KK or QQ the odds are still close to 2:1.) Not to mention occasionally way ahead of most Ax and KQ.

As played I would probably 4-bet shove this preflop by default. Low mid pairs and certain a-hi and k-hi hands are in villain's range here. While we are ahead of some of this, getting him to fold and adding 10BB to our stack without a runout is an absolute coup at this stage of the tournament.

Flatting the raise pre isn't horrible either. You would still be left with about 10BB if you decide to fold the flop. (but bear in mind, you would probably be folding flop about 2/3 of the time if you are taking a fit-or-fold approach here.) That said with 10BB you are clearly in shove or fold pre mode if you didn't think you were at 17BB.

If you flat pre, this isn't a bad spot for the "stop-and-go" play either. Flat pre, and plan to open shove all flops. You'll have about a half-pot bet behind to shove on the flop. Unless villain is savvy enough to look for this play, you are sending the message you improved this flop and he would pretty much be forced to have caught a piece to call (or to have started with a premium hand.) And not to mention you will just happened to have caught a likely good piece on this flop about 1/3 of the time. You could also only go for the stop-and-go on flops that contain an A,K,Q, or J as well. That effectively sets up a situation where you are telling villain you have out-flopped TT or under and in truth about half the time you will in fact have it.

The villain's bully play is pretty obvious, but how many of y'all are going to three bet shove here? (My rationale is that I still had a 15xbb stack afterwords, which is a swing-able weapon if I pick my battles appropriately).

Perhaps, but the problem is you may not get another situation to get 3:1 on your money with a hand nearly as good as AQ in the future. It's easy to avoid these spots with the justification "there's a better spot in the future" in stages where you have a 50BB stack to use. Once you get under 20BB however, the future is shorter. And when there's more than 10BB in the middle to be won, you shouldn't be looking for hero folds unless you know villain is tight. In this case, however, you are clearly suspicious of bully stack play, so I think hero folds should be out of the question.

 

[JustinInMN]

Only when you call him, ha!

In all seriousness, with under 20 big blinds, I’m unlikely to do anything UTG with AQ, other than jamming. It sounds crazy, but unless the entire table has been tip-toeing around like we’re on the bubble, I could find a fold, first to act, in that situation. As played, I’d probably 3-bet jam?

I would put folding pre ahead of the 3BB open fold to a 7.5BB 3-bet line for sure. I agree AQo UTG in a full game is rather overrated. Especially if you are going to dump it facing a forseeable level of aggression.

 

[WedgeRock]

Should I have just flatted UTG?

Flatting incentives the button to raise. If you flat, even if everyone else still folds, the pot is 28k. I expect a button raise to be more than 17k more, even as a position raise with rags.

My rationale is that I still had a 15xbb stack afterwords, which is a swing-able weapon if I pick my battles appropriately

One orbit costs 20k. On the next hand, you are in for another 2xBB, leaving you with 13xBB. For me, 10BB - 15BB is a shove or fold stack.

If you're going to fold to a 3-bet here, you shouldn't have opened at all, or you should have opened to more than 3x. With your stack, if you're opening to 5x or more, just shove.

I'm not folding AQ pre, so AIPF and embrace the variance. As played, you're shoving 115xBB into a pot of 105xBB. You're flipping to everything but AA, KK, QQ and AK. What's that, 24 possible combos that dominate you?

With a healthy stack of 1m, villain knows he's calling your shove with any 2 reasonable cards. So it makes sense that he'd raise (to see if you fold) and call off if you do ship it. Then again, he may do that to incentive you to shove into his AA, KK, QQ or AK... Nah. He doesn't know you don't have AA, KK, QQ or AK.

That's my 2¢.

 

[Frogzilla]

after the bubble its seems like a clear open to 2bb. His 3! over your nonstandard 3bb open…hard to say. Should be stronger than normal but it’s live, you never know, maybe he read your size as weak, little levelling going on.

As played with AQo and very low ICM pressure I like shove, but call doesn’t seem too bad for your pot odds. Fold doesnt seem too bad either as I would expect to encounter a lot of pressure postflop from this setup

 

[Kentucky]

Found myself coming back to this so thought I would look up JL’s 15BB charts.
https://poker-coaching.s3.amazonaws.com/tools/preflop-charts/15bb-gto-charts.pdf

Looks like UTG AQo is an open (seems we only start open shoving from later positions - and even then we open raise with a polar range and shove the medium strength stuff)
Facing an UTG open there is a range of All-Ins from the C/O for the 15BB effective stack size (I’m currently trying to decide if V’s raise indicates strength (I want a call), or weakness (I’m not sure about this), or is just a mistake (I don’t know what I’m doing)).
Then facing that all in we call with AQ.

Fuck all the solvers and position advice and whatever

Or, you know, I’m fine with that too

 

[Frogzilla]

Found myself coming back to this so thought I would look up JL’s 15BB charts.
https://poker-coaching.s3.amazonaws.com/tools/preflop-charts/15bb-gto-charts.pdf

Looks like UTG AQo is an open (seems we only start open shoving from later positions - and even then we open raise with a polar range and shove the medium strength stuff)
Facing an UTG open there is a range of All-Ins from the C/O for the 15BB effective stack size (I’m currently trying to decide if V’s raise indicates strength (I want a call), or weakness (I’m not sure about this), or is just a mistake (I don’t know what I’m doing)).
Then facing that all in we call with AQ.


Or, you know, I’m fine with that too

I’m not familiar with his charts, what risk premium/ICM pressure do these assume?

 

[Kentucky]

I’m not familiar with his charts, what risk premium/ICM pressure do these assume?

Well now you’re going to make me have to look this up…

https://pokercoaching.com/downloadable-preflop-charts-thankyou
“Use these preflop charts to learn how to play at a 9-handed table 15bbs deep with a 12.5% ante.”

 

[Frogzilla]

Well now you’re going to make me have to look this up…

https://pokercoaching.com/downloadable-preflop-charts-thankyou
“Use these preflop charts to learn how to play at a 9-handed table 15bbs deep with a 12.5% ante.”

But might be no risk premium then? These charts too wide then