Villain on villain, AQo in middle possition (1 Viewer)

[thorwilliam]

Call. Villian holds the 7.

He never has a 7 here.

 

[Kain8]

Why would the UCS flat call the raise on the turn if he has KQ? That line of cold calling and then open shoving on a blank river leads me to believe that he has a queen as well and we're chopping with him. That being said, if he has KQ, it's just a cooler. Call it off and see what he rolls over.

 

[BGinGA]

call, win pot with Q-high straight / ace kicker. hey, it's more probable than villain holding a 7.....

 

[Adam Crowley]

How do we rate villain at hand reading? Is he good enough to read our hand as it is? Is heros image such that villain could expect to fold out the Q high straight?

How often is villain putting people in really difficult spots. I would assume his player profile lends him to check call most hands here.

 

[DrStrange]

Villain does not read hands well and he often ignores the read he does have when he gets stubborn / sticky.

Villain thinks he has the best hand here. He is never ever bluffing off a 550 stack, though he can easily call off that big a stack.

On a normal night villain does not have enough aggression to put people in difficult spots. Even on tonight, he is not risking such a fine start on some silly hand like pocket aces.

I think hero should be more focused on the value of a chop rather than the rare times he snaps off a bluff.

 

[AlPresidente]

Possible outcomes (fold = +$0) if we call are
split pot +$135
catch bluff +$685
lose -$424
if we assume 5% bluff, 30% nuts, 60% Qx we make 34.25 - 127.2 + 101.25 = +$8.3
never bluffs, 20% nuts = -$29

If we think UCS never bluffs, this is a fold. If he ever bluffs, it's a call.

 

[Adam Crowley]

This is along the lines of my thinking as well. If villain never bluffs he has Qx 100% of the time. Given his line I would give him KQ a lot more. The read could even be specifically KQ of hearts depending on how well you know villain.

I have just finished work and dont have time to work it out, but you can give villain a specific range and combo of hands to work out the maths exactly.

In the moment given the reads we have on villain I think it would be a fold. I think villain would have all combos of AQ, KQ, QJ and maybe QT. I assume fold but it would be close.

 

[DrStrange]

*** Results ***

Hero calls after tanking a bit. Villain tables for the flopped nuts and takes down the biggest pot of the night.

Hero discussed the hand with me later - the bet/call on the turn plus Villain telling Hero that he has the nuts were the items that sold Hero on calling and hoping for the chop.