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Have we finally reached market saturation?? (9 Viewers)

MrCatPants said:
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Not sure what that graph is supposed to demonstrate in terms of chipping habits.

Looks like in the first two years of the pandemic, people were hoarding money, not spending it. Maybe out of fear. Or not taking vacations. Or because there were few cars available to buy. Dunno.

Then, as it has lifted, savings rates plunged. Again… Hard to say what this really means. People who had lost work then had to spend their savings? Or went on an SUV buying spree once shortages ended? Or savings were eaten up by inflation?

Again, not sure one graph proves anything. The one thing I learned as the son of an economist is that no one really knows anything for certain about the economy.

Especially since the general population is very different from the chipping population.

Given the luxury nature of the hobby, populated largely by gamblers, it seems likely that the net worth of chippers is well above the general public. And that our spending habits are way out of sync with theirs.

Many lost more income than they gained from stimulus or other lifestyle savings from the pandemic. Were chippers equally represented among them? I really doubt we can know. It’s just theorizing.

Point remains: If you were (say) spending $3,000/year on chips, did a $400 stimulus check or other pandemic windfall really change your chipping habits much? Surely most of such hypothetical dollars went to other pandemic expenses. Like the aforementioned throw pillows, or a new blender, or cookware, or added streaming services, or whatever.

I think this COVID idea is very tempting to latch onto, but may be more symbolic thinking than actual fact.
 
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BarrieJ3 said:
I just don't get why we can't have active discussion.

Many great points are made. Both on thoughts of our small economy, the effect that whales (not limited to WW but including him) have on it, collections in general, etc etc. I have yet to see hominem attacks on WW, yet so many people are quick to ask why he's being attacked.

The UpNDown and Jeep exchange was fantastic, one person brought up a scenario that had value, the other added missing knowledge, and there was a beginning and close to the scenario and its application to the thread.

But so many people for some reason want to say "why are we talking about this?" Because it's an interesting topic or because it holds value to us or because people are bored on an afternoon or because people don't know things and want to figure them out or any other reason.

Not picking a fight, but just sharing what I think is insight:

I don't see hurt feelings or anger, I see people discussing things. And we discuss because it's important to us and holds value.

You have at minimum 5 posts of your circle getting smaller due to a specific scenario where you wronged. I don't assume you brought it up here again out of hurt feelings or anger, but rather to share a view point that you think holds value and is pertinent to the conversation.

I just don't understand why the same type of conversation or scenarios that happen to involve WW are met with derision or the sentiment "move on".
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If you are counting, I was wronged, boo hoo now you can say I have said it six times. Lol

My point was get over it! These are only round pieces of clay. Way more to life than being butt hurt over chips. My point again is keep your friends close and those you don’t trust closer. (Does that count as 7?)
 
David O said:
My point was get over it! These are only round pieces of clay.
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Nope!
This is me and my list grows!!!!!
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Taghkanic said:
I have to wonder again... How much exactly did y’all get in COVID payments? Enough to buy more than 1-2 racks of mediocre chips? Or maybe one small check, or even none because of income qualifications? IDGI.
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Ignore the trolls. Their “COVID payment” narrative is of a piece with Reagan’s “welfare queens.”
 
Taghkanic said:
Not sure what that graph is supposed to demonstrate in terms of chipping habits.

Looks like in the first two years of the pandemic, people were hoarding money, not spending it. Maybe out of fear. Or not taking vacations. Or because there were few cars available to buy. Dunno.

Then, as it has lifted, savings rates plunged. Again… Hard to say what this really means. People who had lost work then had to spend their savings? Or went on an SUV buying spree once shortages ended? Again, not sure one graph proves anything.

Especially since the general population is very different from the chipping population.

Given the luxury nature of the hobby, populated largely by gamblers, it seems likely that the net worth of chippers is well above the general public. And that our spending habits are way out of sync with theirs.

Many lost more income than they gained from stimulus or other lifestyle savings from the pandemic. Were chippers equally represented among them? I really doubt we can know. It’s just theorizing.

Point remains: If you were (say) spending $3,000/year on chips, did a $400 stimulus check or other pandemic windfall really change your chipping habits much? Surely most of such hypothetical dollars went to other pandemic expenses. Like the aforementioned throw pillows, or a new blender, or cookware, or added streaming services, or whatever.

I think this COVID idea is very tempting to latch onto, but may be more symbolic thinking than actual fact.
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It's that disposable income went way up in 2020 because peoples expenses went down, and households saved that at historically anomalous rates. Wallets were overflowing from that in 2021 nationally.
 
Taghkanic said:
Not sure what that graph is supposed to demonstrate in terms of chipping habits.

Looks like in the first two years of the pandemic, people were hoarding money, not spending it. Maybe out of fear. Or not taking vacations. Or because there were few cars available to buy. Dunno.

Then, as it has lifted, savings rates plunged. Again… Hard to say what this really means. People who had lost work then had to spend their savings? Or went on an SUV buying spree once shortages ended? Again, not sure one graph proves anything.

Especially since the general population is very different from the chipping population.

Given the luxury nature of the hobby, populated largely by gamblers, it seems likely that the net worth of chippers is well above the general public. And that our spending habits are way out of sync with theirs.

Many lost more income than they gained from stimulus or other lifestyle savings from the pandemic. Were chippers equally represented among them? I really doubt we can know. It’s just theorizing.

Point remains: If you were (say) spending $3,000/year on chips, did a $400 stimulus check or other pandemic windfall really change your chipping habits much? Surely most of such hypothetical dollars went to other pandemic expenses. Like the aforementioned throw pillows, or a new blender, or cookware, or added streaming services, or whatever.

I think this COVID idea is very tempting to latch onto, but may be more symbolic thinking than actual fact.
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Not sure where you live, but for many people who commute into a city on a daily basis and need to pay for parking/gas etc., that adds up to hundreds of dollars on a weekly basis. When all of a sudden everyone is working from home, that’s thousands of dollars over the course of a year. Then subtract a couple of vacations per year, and what you may normally spend going out to bars/restaurants etc. I think thats what he meant by people having excess money. Not so much the stimulus checks
 
I have to wonder again... How much exactly did y’all get in COVID payments? Enough to buy more than 1-2 racks of mediocre chips? Or maybe one small check, or even none because of income qualifications? IDGI.

@Taghkanic Covid stimulus payments were based on income and time off. In addition SBA owners were flush w cash thanks to PPP. Lots of money was printed.

We had our best used car month unit wise by 20%. Everyone came in with cash down. And people were at home BORED.

In addition, all spring break, and summer vacations were canceled and you couldn’t eat out. That’s $5-$10k savings for families.

Everyone was flush with cash. Wasn’t just Covid payments. Canceled vacations, traveling, closed restaurants…and Bitcoin went off and so did tech stocks.
 
doublebooyah85 said:
I have to wonder again... How much exactly did y’all get in COVID payments? Enough to buy more than 1-2 racks of mediocre chips? Or maybe one small check, or even none because of income qualifications? IDGI.

@Taghkanic Covid stimulus payments were based on income and time off. In addition SBA owners were flush w cash thanks to PPP. Lots of money was printed.

We had our best used car month unit wise by 20%. Everyone came in with cash down. And people were at home BORED.

In addition, all spring break, and summer vacations were canceled and you couldn’t eat out. That’s $5-$10k savings for families.

Everyone was flush with cash. Wasn’t just Covid payments. Canceled vacations, traveling, closed restaurants…and Bitcoin went off and so did tech stocks.
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I think I got $1200 and I bought some tires for my SUV I needed. I also worked all through the pandemic because I was "essential" , minus the first week of the shutdown in March.
 
doublebooyah85 said:
True, sorry, but didn’t want it getting too personal. Most people got Covid stimulus money, or business owners got big loans that were forgiven, and almost everyone saw a temporary significant increase in expense reduction.
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No problem... wife and I worked through the entire pandemic due to being essential, dont own a business, and even though we are middle class, someone somewhere decided we make too much. It is what it is... all the chips I've bought were bought with all that extra money we apparently make. Lol
 
JeepologyOffroad said:
Spite buy yes. Which I of course don’t like or agree with. But you are missing some details. The flip side of it was a spite buy too. It wasn’t because a seller refused to sell to him. The PCA were listed at a fair price. He posted in thread he would take them. Then behind the scenes after that fact they were group bought strictly to prevent him from buying them because it was him. Unsure what they said to convince seller to not go thru with the deal, but that’s what happened. These weren’t even secondaries. They were tire primaries. He would have likely dumped them shortly after.

Edit: still not saying I side with spite buying whatsoever but just stating the flip side that is not being said.
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How many times were chips listed that people said dibbs on long before him only to have them bought out from under them for a 2x or 3x list price offer by PM.

I heard of at least a couple

The insane auction antics

But plenty is people here took serious advantage of that when they were ready to cash out and listed targeted sales knowing he’d jump while other people egged him on to buy stuff

I have a feeling though he’s still lurking

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MrCatPants said:
It's that disposable income went way up in 2020 because peoples expenses went down, and households saved that at historically anomalous rates. Wallets were overflowing from that in 2021 nationally.
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What the graph doesn’t mention is that most Americans have virtually no savings. A brief increase in the *percentage* of savings (followed by a crash in savings) is still a pittance. The number of people with enough funds to buy $1,000 racks of Clay Discs™ before the pandemic was the same during the pandemic.

I highly doubt that those who didn’t have the funds for chipping before the pandemic, who suddenly came into some cash during, spent it on NAGBs.

Anyway, if this theory were valid, then we would be seeing a crash in chip prices now that the Free Money Express has met its East Palestine.
 
doublebooyah85 said:
Everyone was flush with cash. Wasn’t just Covid payments. Canceled vacations, traveling, closed restaurants…and Bitcoin went off and so did tech stocks.
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So that’s why chip prices are so low now, since that all that free cash got spent and then dried up, Rokay
 
Taghkanic said:
What the graph doesn’t mention is that most Americans have virtually no savings. A brief increase in the *percentage* of savings (followed by a crash in savings) is still a pittance. The number of people with enough funds to buy $1,000 racks of Clay Discs™ before the pandemic was the same during the pandemic.

I highly doubt that those who didn’t have the funds for chipping before the pandemic, who suddenly came into some cash during, spent it on NAGBs.

Anyway, if this theory were valid, then we would be seeing a crash in chip prices now that the Free Money Express has met its East Palestine.
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Luxury hobbies like this don't apply to most Americans. Those into this hobby with disposable income simply had more of it during 20/21. So it's not the number of people as much as it is the cash those people had to spend.

And we are seeing chip prices come back to earth a bit. Kind of like housing it's hard for it to truly crash because people don't want to take a big loss from what they paid so they'll simply sell at a slight loss or otherwise hold.
 
Taghkanic said:
So that’s why chip prices are so low now, since that all that free cash got spent and then dried up, Rokay
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No, inflation has now caught up and this is the new norm w chippin’ is my thought.

I’m shocked you don’t think the extra cash everyone had didn’t encourage prices to go up lol.
 
Over the years I have seen prices drop & rise just like everything that runs in cycles...
We obviously are in a time were buyers < seller and prices reflect that.

Contributing this cycle to one specific person and/or NAGB is ridiculously narowminded or lacking reference

TRK went out of business...
BCC went out of business...
Paulson not manufacturing leaded chips with shaped inlays ever again...
Paulson not offering home/retail sets....
Paulson not offering spot combo's we all love....
More NAGB's watered down the initial crazy asking prices of these chips on the second market....
...

Current market prices reflect all the above and most if not all of the above are not impacted by current downswing in prices.

Where the issue lays today, are the members that bought sets like Jacks, HS's and the likes in the absolute PEAK of chip pricing.
There are plenty out there and with many coming to market (to buy Tiger or other chips), prices dropped more dan average on these chips (since they were way overpriced back then).

The current influx of THC chips (Tigers & TCR) also 'hurt' the RHC prices in general...THC is still prefered by almost everyone.

But, can you imagine what current prices would do if

TCR retired
Paulson ended their clay chip production or retired the THC mold
Paulson starts offering home sets and private orders
CPC ended production or offering to private buyers (and replace Paulson in the clay casino market ;) )
TCR found a batch twice the size of PCA (all casino leaded & shaped inlay mint THC's)
...

Right...prices (on some chips) would shift up & down (by a large margin).
We can never predict but only guess.

Reality is that this community has never been more thriving and that translates in a growing demand
 
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Just want to add that while some people may have gotten some stimulus money, a lot of people either lost their jobs or had their hours drastically reduced and subsequent pay decreased during that same time. There certainly wasn’t an excess of money for everyone.
 
Thomacetti said:
Over the years I have seen prices drop & rise just everything that runs in cycles...
We obviously are in a time were buyers < seller and prices reflect that.

Contributing this cycle to one specific person and/or NAGB is ridiculously narowminded or lacking reference

TRK went out of business...
BCC went out of business...
Paulson not manufacturing leaded chips with shaped inlays ever again...
Paulson not offering home/retail sets....
Paulson not offering spot combo's we all love....
More NAGB's watered down the initial crazy asking prices of these chips on the second market....
...

Current market prices reflect all the above and most if not all of the above are not impacted by current downswing in prices.

Where the issue lays today, are the members that bought sets like Jacks, HS's and the likes in the absolute PEAK of chip pricing.
There are plenty out there and with many coming to market (to buy Tiger or other chips), prices dropped more dan average on these chips (since they were way overpriced back then).

The current influx of THC chips (Tigers & TCR) also 'hurt' the RHC prices in general...THC is still prefered by almost everyone.

But, can you imagine what current prices would do if

TCR retired
Paulson ended their clay chip production or retired the THC mold
Paulson starts offering home sets and private orders
CPC ended production or offering to private buyers (and replace Paulson in the clay casino market ;) )
TCR found a batch twice the size of PCA (all casino leaded & shaped inlay mint THC's)
...

Right...prices (on some chips) would shift up & down (by a large margin).
We can never predict but only guess.

Reality is that this community has never been more thriving and that translates in more demand
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I agree with just about all of this, except the part that implied that I’m narrow minded.
 
doublebooyah85 said:
No, inflation has now caught up and this is the new norm w chippin’ is my thought.

I’m shocked you don’t think the extra cash everyone had didn’t encourage prices to go up lol.
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One of these days the concept of “correlation is not causation” may penetrate the skulls of PCFers. But today is not that day.
 

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