PAHWM: .25/.50 NLHE TPTK on Wet Board (2 Viewers)

[JustinInMN]

I think as played I am going to check an call the river. With the board paring tens on the turn, the reasonable range for second best hands that call is pretty thin, specifically KQ and QJ. If villain has a missed draw, he won't call. He will either just fold or raise to turn the hand into a bluff which is a less comfortable spot for hero also. If I think villain is loose enough to call with K9, J9, 98. I might stick with the bet, but in general I favor a check-call.

I feel like this is a good check-call spot with the second card on the flop pairing and no obvious draws completing. I expect I will be shown KJ, AT, KT, or JT a hunk of the time, but I think we will be shown missed draws (AJ, many diamond combos) and maybe even inferior -x type hands enough to justify a call.

 

[boltonguy]

I like check/call or block bet $12.50 and fold to a raise. I am regularly surprised at how often my block bets are called by worse.

 

[Kain8]

Check/call is definitely the way to go.

 

[cfowl23]

Myself, I’m leading on this card about 25-50% pot should get it done.

Check/calling any bet 50% or lower to the pot. If he leads 75% or higher probably laying down.

 

[Legend5555]

So holiday got in the way. Here is the conclusion...

4 handed
.25/.50 NLHE
Eff stack $67.50

VILLAIN (CO) raises to $1
Button folds.
SB folds.
HERO (BB) with

HERO raises to $4.
VILLAIN calls.

Pot: $8
Eff Stack $63.50

Flop:

HERO bets $5.75
VILLAIN calls.

Pot: $19.50
Eff Stack $57.75

Turn:

HERO bets $10.25
VILLAIN calls.

Pot: $40
Eff Stack $47.50

River:

HERO bets $13.50.
VILLAIN jams for $47.50 total.

HERO decides to punish himself for playing this hand kinda badly. He knows this is a bluff at these stakes about 0% of the time, but calls anyway with the 3 to 1 odds.

VILLAIN shows .

I was trying to go for thin 3 streets of value against what looked like either at best top pair or a draw. Typically, I wouldn't go for 3 streets here. But his no raise on flop given the texture really made me think he was weighted to one pair hands or Jx hands. The turn was a little concerning because it turned the most obvious no raise flop J into trips. But there were still hands I could get value from I thought. On river, I didn't think a T would jam after I fired all 3 streets (though my block makes it somewhat unlikely that I had a monster value hand since I typically would use a more polarizing sizing). And I thought all two pair, sets (now boats), and straights would have raised flop or turn the majority of the time given the texture and that as the 3 bettor I should have a lot of continues on this board. Even still, I know no one ever bluffs here, and obviously should have folded. But sometimes I like to punish myself to reinforce these truths to myself.

If I check this flop for pot control with AQ, then am I checking this flop with my entire 3 betting range? I ran some rough ranges, and my range is slightly ahead on the flop, though not by much. And given that we now know opponent can have 99, my range is behind on the turn to his continuing range about 54-46. Since I don't use solvers, these are the spots I have the toughest time figuring out.

 

[warma]

Interesting. What had me cringe was the second 10, not the 9.

 

[JustinInMN]

If I check this flop for pot control with AQ, then am I checking this flop with my entire 3 betting range?

I think you are probably betting KK, AA, or sets yourself. But personally, I don't mind leading AQ here.

I know I advocated for a check-call line on the river, but if you have a villain dependent read that " this is a bluff at these stakes about 0% of the time" folding certainly merits consideration, I suppose.

 

[DrStrange]

Observations:
1. This is happening at a four player table. Very short handed poker is more situational & villain dependent.
2. Hero is playing 135bb. Not that deep but no where close to shallow stacked.
3. AQo is a "top-pair" sort of hand meaning that value typically come from flopping top pair. This type of hand doesn't do well on wet boards or deeper stacked.
4. Hero is play out of position. We saw how painful this can be in a previous strategy post by Hero.
5. It matters if this is a table of random internet players vs people in an on-line home game.
6. It also matters if everyone is making the huge hand ranging adjustments for the tiny table. Villain should be raising half his hand here. Hero could be 3-betting rather "weak" hands from the perspective of a full ring player.

Preflop: AQo is roughly a 7th percental hand. This is an excellent hand for a four man table. Villain can easily be stealing blinds with a min raise. And if he isn't, Hero's hand is way ahead of villain's range. A three-bet is a reasonable play. The SPR post flop will be uncomfortable. Hero is going to be c-betting air a lot.

< Villain likely should be 4-betting 99 if Hero is using a short handed sort of ranges. 99 is ahead of Hero's range and that player has position. The preflop lines seen a lot more like what I might see at a full ring table. >

Flop: This is not the best flop for Hero. Yes he got top pair / top kicker but this may become a problem. The SPR is ~eight and the board is wet. I suggest a generally passive line. Bet/fold flop, check/call turn, check/fold river. Hero needs to be able to live with being outplayed here. Villain has many advantages. All hero has is top pair with no other significant prospects. Hero's goal needs to be preservation now, not extraction. Hero gets to make/call two bets maximum for the rest of this hand.

Turn: The pair board is a mixed blessing / curse. More curse than blessing. No more aggression from hero unless he makes a full house. I am inclined to check/fold vs a random on-line player. Hero could be drawing almost dead vs trip tens. Again, it is ok to be bluffed here.

River: So what types of villain holdings are calling a third barrel? The read is the villain is a thinking player with good post flop skills? And once hero fires the third shot and gets jammed then the only hope is villain is bluffing a missed draw. Which isn't crazy - villain's line is polarized. Slow played monster or missed draw.

Let's note that the last decision was the critical one. Over half the losses came there. And yet, it is the one decision that wasn't discussed. Sad - - - it was THE important choice.

Hero made a meta-scale blunder. He has enough of a read to know his holding is going to be troublesome on this board. Three streets of value plus a bluff catch attempt vs a skilled thinking player is a bad plan. < or the villain read was wrong. A skilled villain should be semi-bluffing his/her draws > My guess is Hero didn't plan his post flop efforts. He made decisions street by street, each of which were "reasonable" and yet lead to a predictable disaster.

DrStrange

 

[Legend5555]

Observations:
1. This is happening at a four player table. Very short handed poker is more situational & villain dependent.
2. Hero is playing 135bb. Not that deep but no where close to shallow stacked.
3. AQo is a "top-pair" sort of hand meaning that value typically come from flopping top pair. This type of hand doesn't do well on wet boards or deeper stacked.
4. Hero is play out of position. We saw how painful this can be in a previous strategy post by Hero.
5. It matters if this is a table of random internet players vs people in an on-line home game.
6. It also matters if everyone is making the huge hand ranging adjustments for the tiny table. Villain should be raising half his hand here. Hero could be 3-betting rather "weak" hands from the perspective of a full ring player.

Preflop: AQo is roughly a 7th percental hand. This is an excellent hand for a four man table. Villain can easily be stealing blinds with a min raise. And if he isn't, Hero's hand is way ahead of villain's range. A three-bet is a reasonable play. The SPR post flop will be uncomfortable. Hero is going to be c-betting air a lot.

< Villain likely should be 4-betting 99 if Hero is using a short handed sort of ranges. 99 is ahead of Hero's range and that player has position. The preflop lines seen a lot more like what I might see at a full ring table. >

Flop: This is not the best flop for Hero. Yes he got top pair / top kicker but this may become a problem. The SPR is ~eight and the board is wet. I suggest a generally passive line. Bet/fold flop, check/call turn, check/fold river. Hero needs to be able to live with being outplayed here. Villain has many advantages. All hero has is top pair with no other significant prospects. Hero's goal needs to be preservation now, not extraction. Hero gets to make/call two bets maximum for the rest of this hand.

Turn: The pair board is a mixed blessing / curse. More curse than blessing. No more aggression from hero unless he makes a full house. I am inclined to check/fold vs a random on-line player. Hero could be drawing almost dead vs trip tens. Again, it is ok to be bluffed here.

River: So what types of villain holdings are calling a third barrel? The read is the villain is a thinking player with good post flop skills? And once hero fires the third shot and gets jammed then the only hope is villain is bluffing a missed draw. Which isn't crazy - villain's line is polarized. Slow played monster or missed draw.

Let's note that the last decision was the critical one. Over half the losses came there. And yet, it is the one decision that wasn't discussed. Sad - - - it was THE important choice.

Hero made a meta-scale blunder. He has enough of a read to know his holding is going to be troublesome on this board. Three streets of value plus a bluff catch attempt vs a skilled thinking player is a bad plan. < or the villain read was wrong. A skilled villain should be semi-bluffing his/her draws > My guess is Hero didn't plan his post flop efforts. He made decisions street by street, each of which were "reasonable" and yet lead to a predictable disaster.

DrStrange

Oh believe me. I know.