PAHWM: P* tourney (1 Viewer)

[Moxie Mike]

I have an answer here, but I'm not going to share it

Well I could just ruin this by posting the hand history right now #dontmesswithmecatpants

 

[Frogzilla]

Ok, back to my thing...

Blinds are 1000/2000, 250 ante.

SB: 48k
BB: 29k
UTG: 44k folds
HJ: 62k folds
CO Villain: 91
BTN Hero: 67k

Villain is solid, aggressive, keeps pressure on. Runs ridiculously hot for weeks at a time.

Folds to villain, who raises to 6000.

Hero, who is generally considered nitty, and mediocre, on the button with .

I flat call.

Obviously, most of you think that’s the worst option. But villain does open wide, and I don’t mind seeing a flop in position against him. If one of the blinds jam, I can evaluate when action gets back to me, and easily fold, retaining one of the bigger stacks. If hero raises, and it’s re-popped, hero is in a tougher spot with even a smaller stack.

Blinds fold, and flop is:


Villian leads for 6000.

Hero?

This hand plays itself on the flop. Call. Anything else is just lighting money on fire.

 

[Moxie Mike]

So this hand has interesting decision points on all 4 streets.

I can't help but wonder if the lack of responses is due to the fact that I am the villain in the hand. It's ok... I already know how terrified most of you are of me

I want @Beakertwang to benefit from this analysis, so I am going to unwatch and if there's an option on the forum, ignore this thread. In any event, I promise I won't read the responses from this point forward unless I am tagged.

 

[Beakertwang]

So this hand has interesting decision points on all 4 streets.

I can't help but wonder if the lack of responses is due to the fact that I am the villain in the hand. It's ok... I already know how terrified most of you are of me

I want @Beakertwang to benefit from this analysis, so I am going to unwatch and if there's an option on the forum, ignore this thread. In any event, I promise I won't read the responses from this point forward unless I am tagged.

How very gracious of you!

 

[Beakertwang]

Bumping the flop action for more honest evaluation of how great I played this hand.


Blinds are 1000/2000, 250 ante.

SB: 48k
BB: 29k
UTG: 44k folds
HJ: 62k folds
CO Villain: 91
BTN Hero: 67k

Villain is solid, aggressive, keeps pressure on. Runs ridiculously hot for weeks at a time.

Folds to villain, who raises to 6000.

Hero, who is generally considered nitty, and mediocre, on the button with .

I flat call.

Obviously, most of you think that’s the worst option. But villain does open wide, and I don’t mind seeing a flop in position against him. If one of the blinds jam, I can evaluate when action gets back to me, and easily fold, retaining one of the bigger stacks. If hero raises, and it’s re-popped, hero is in a tougher spot with even a smaller stack.

Blinds fold, and flop is:


Villian leads for 6000.

Hero?

 

[Beakertwang]

Anyone?

 

[DrStrange]

Hero's only option is calling.

Folding is out of the question holding top pair / ok kicker.

Raising polarizes villain's range to hands that beat Hero and occasional big draws. Hero will be very unhappy if villain 3-bets him - something quite plausible is villain has straight + flush draw. Not very likely but a PITA for hero if those hands are in play. Basically raising turns Hero's hand into a bluff should villain remain in the hand.

Hero made his decision here by calling the preflop raise. Let's see how this plays out, but I think it safe to say Hero will lose bigger pots than he wins over many iterations of this hand. But Hero might win more often in large part due to position, so the net expected value might still be ok.

*** Might be ok *** -=- DrStrange

PS not having a diamond ten is unfortunate.

 

[Eriks]

CO should be opening wide pre. I prefer a 3-bet but think flatting could be ok. I’m never folding and never jaming.

I don’t expect CO to flat a 3-bet and should be folding or jaming so I don’t really see the downside with 3-betting. We have decent blockers with AT.

As played, on the flop calling is the only option. I think this highlights why 3-betting pre might be better. Even with a good flop like this AT is just a bluff catcher.

Description says villain likes to apply pressure and hero is seen as nitty so buckle up and get ready to call down on a lot of run outs imo.

Isn’t it a good thing that we don’t block any diamonds @DrStrange ? We want him to be able to have a lot of bluffs, right?

 

[Beakertwang]

So, I'll just move this along to the river. d

Blinds are 1000/2000, 250 ante.

SB: 48k
BB: 29k
UTG: 44k folds
HJ: 62k folds
CO Villain: 91
BTN Hero: 67k

Villain is solid, aggressive, keeps pressure on. Runs ridiculously hot for weeks at a time.

Folds to villain, who raises to 6000.

Hero, who is generally considered nitty, and mediocre, on the button with .

I flat call.

Obviously, most of you think that’s the worst option. But villain does open wide, and I don’t mind seeing a flop in position against him. If one of the blinds jam, I can evaluate when action gets back to me, and easily fold, retaining one of the bigger stacks. If hero raises, and it’s re-popped, hero is in a tougher spot with even a smaller stack.

Blinds fold, and flop is:


Villain leads for 6000.

Pot is 22,500

Hero raises to 16,000.

I felt like I was ahead in most cases. Villain would be c-betting almost everything, including draws, pocket pairs, and weaker aces. Again, consensus seems to be this is the wrong play.

Villain calls, to hero's chagrin.

Turn comes

Board

Villain check.

Hero?

 

[CraigT78]

Villain calls, to hero's chagrin.

River comes

Board

Villain check.

Hero?

I think we are missing a card.

 

[Eriks]

One problem with raising this flop is that he has the range advantage: he has all the AA/AK/AQ/AJ/QQ while you do not (perhaps AJ?). You basically have no big hands here, even 22 is unlikely with these shallow stacks.

He could take KJ and shove knowing you probably can’t call. Also, if you raise A10 here think about what does that does to your calling range.

Another problem is when he calls the flop raise. You kind of have to check behind on the turn because you’re very unsure where you’re at in the hand and the pot is really big and any further betting will likely commit you. If the river blanks he has another good opportunity to put you in a super tough spot.

 

[Beakertwang]

I think we are missing a card.

oops. I meant "turn". Corrected.

 

[DrStrange]

We could discuss the value of blockers / not blocking a long time. I think they are generally over valued but not meaningless. But in this case . . . .

If Hero held the ten of diamonds, it restricts villains flush draws to KJ only as KT, JT and even T9 are not possible. On the other hand, when Hero is behind to a better ace, the backdoor diamond draw gives Hero some extra equity - something like an extra ~3%. { 5% if we knew villain didn't have a bigger diamond }

So which would hero prefer to have, an extra 3% equity or knowing that villain can't hold three hands constituting the primary flush draws for villain's range?

There are 22 better Ax hands in villain's range plus six sets. There are three to four flush draws. Everything else is a bluff after the flop + turn action.

Hero should be committed to keeping the bluffs in villain's range. If Hero bets, we have to assume the bluffs all fold because there isn't any remaining fold equity for a villain bluff check raise. A bet from hero would likely fold out the draws but the 10,000 flop raise should have done that anyway. A big combo draw likely would have ripped it all in on the flop.

The paired board makes this even more a way ahead / way behind situation with lots of chops. Hero is drawing to three outs vs a villain AK. Hero is almost dead to AQ and sets. Vs any other ace-x hand Hero and villain are chopping the bulk of the runouts. The worst river cards in the deck for Hero are queens.

So I vote check the turn. Planning to call river bets on "safe" rivers. Let's give villain a little rope and hope he hangs himself all while avoiding hanging Hero.

DrStrange

 

[Frogzilla]

You can make the argument that the 2 is a little better for hero, and therefore it’s a decent strategy to bet every single hand here, even the ones that are normally a pretty clear check to realize showdown value like AT.

However, with ICM tourney dynamics we really want to keep pot small against the big stack and I just check...at this point out stack is out of danger and we feel pretty good.

 

[Eriks]

You can make the argument that the 2 is a little better for hero, and therefore it’s a decent strategy to bet every single hand here, even the ones that are normally a pretty clear check to realize showdown value like AT.

I’m not sure I agree with you here. What 2s does hero really have? I’d say it’s more likely that A2s and 22 are in villain’s opening range than in hero’s flatting range.

 

[Eriks]

So which would hero prefer to have, an extra 3% equity or knowing that villain can't hold three hands constituting the primary flush draws for villain's range?

Isn’t 3% extra equity plus knowing villain can’t hold some of the flush draws? I still think not holding the 10 of diamonds is better.

Hero should be committed to keeping the bluffs in villain's range. If Hero bets, we have to assume the bluffs all fold because there isn't any remaining fold equity for a villain bluff check raise. A bet from hero would likely fold out the draws but the 10,000 flop raise should have done that anyway. A big combo draw likely would have ripped it all in on the flop.

The paired board makes this even more a way ahead / way behind situation with lots of chops. Hero is drawing to three outs vs a villain AK. Hero is almost dead to AQ and sets. Vs any other ace-x hand Hero and villain are chopping the bulk of the runouts. The worst river cards in the deck for Hero are queens.

So I vote check the turn. Planning to call river bets on "safe" rivers. Let's give villain a little rope and hope he hangs himself all while avoiding hanging Hero.

DrStrange

Fully agree with you here

 

[Frogzilla]

I’m not sure I agree with you here. What 2s does hero really have? I’d say it’s more likely that A2s and 22 are in villain’s opening range than in hero’s flatting range.

Don’t forget ranges can shift based on flop action, and the 2 is also a nice card for middle pair that dodges overs

 

[Beakertwang]

After my flop raise was called, I pretty much ruled out monsters (2 pair, sets, or AK). I could be wrong, but I suspect villain would have kept up pressure and 3-bet. That left basically AJ, weaker aces, or flush draws. I doubt he would have called with a gutter, unless he had the Kd.

Turn was checked through.

Spoiler: Hand so far

Blinds are 1000/2000, 250 ante.

SB: 48k
BB: 29k
UTG: 44k folds
HJ: 62k folds
CO Villain: 91
BTN Hero: 67k

Villain is solid, aggressive, keeps pressure on. Runs ridiculously hot for weeks at a time.

Folds to villain, who raises to 6000.

Hero, who is generally considered nitty, and mediocre, on the button with .

I flat call.

Obviously, most of you think that’s the worst option. But villain does open wide, and I don’t mind seeing a flop in position against him. If one of the blinds jam, I can evaluate when action gets back to me, and easily fold, retaining one of the bigger stacks. If hero raises, and it’s re-popped, hero is in a tougher spot with even a smaller stack.

Blinds fold, and flop is:


Villain leads for 6000.

Pot is 22,500

Hero raises to 16,000.

I felt like I was ahead in most cases. Villain would be c-betting almost everything, including draws, pocket pairs, and weaker aces. Again, consensus seems to be this is the wrong play.

Villain calls, to hero's chagrin.

Turn comes

Board

Villain checks.

Hero checks.

River

Villain bets 12,000

Hero has 45,000 left. Action?

 

[FordPickup92]

After my flop raise was called, I pretty much ruled out monsters (2 pair, sets, or AK). I could be wrong, but I suspect villain would have kept up pressure and 3-bet. That left basically AJ, weaker aces, or flush draws. I doubt he would have called with a gutter, unless he had the Kd.

Turn was checked through.

Spoiler: Hand so far

Blinds are 1000/2000, 250 ante.

SB: 48k
BB: 29k
UTG: 44k folds
HJ: 62k folds
CO Villain: 91
BTN Hero: 67k

Villain is solid, aggressive, keeps pressure on. Runs ridiculously hot for weeks at a time.

Folds to villain, who raises to 6000.

Hero, who is generally considered nitty, and mediocre, on the button with .

I flat call.

Obviously, most of you think that’s the worst option. But villain does open wide, and I don’t mind seeing a flop in position against him. If one of the blinds jam, I can evaluate when action gets back to me, and easily fold, retaining one of the bigger stacks. If hero raises, and it’s re-popped, hero is in a tougher spot with even a smaller stack.

Blinds fold, and flop is:


Villain leads for 6000.

Pot is 22,500

Hero raises to 16,000.

I felt like I was ahead in most cases. Villain would be c-betting almost everything, including draws, pocket pairs, and weaker aces. Again, consensus seems to be this is the wrong play.

Villain calls, to hero's chagrin.

Turn comes

Board

Villain checks.

Hero checks.

River

Hero bets 12,000

Villain has 45,000 left. Action?

Omg nooooo not a diamond!

 

[Frogzilla]

River

Hero bets 12,000

Villain has 45,000 left. Action?

Do you mean villain bet 12k into us?

Our hand will pick off some bluffs and thin value so we can’t fold for that price. To raise for value in a cash game we need to beat 50% of the villains calling range...which I don’t know that we do. To raise for value in a tourney with some ICM pressure it’d be closer to 60% if I’d guess...we are too light to raise here also.

Call!!

 

[Beakertwang]

Do you mean villain bet 12k into us?

Yeah, that's exactly what I meant. I don't know what's wrong with me sometimes.

Edited

 

[FordPickup92]

Yeah, that's exactly what I meant. I don't know what's wrong with me sometimes.

Edited

Dude I'm dying here lol need to know villains hand!

 

[Beakertwang]

Dude I'm dying here lol need to know villains hand!

We have to get through the rest of the action first.

 

[DrStrange]

Hero should at least call. Jamming is a greedy play, but if villain has AK he is not easily folding and he might call with any ace thinking the hand is a chop. Though the flushing board could scare off a cautious villain. Hero's line so far is somewhat consistent with a flush draw.

Hero is going to have to decide how well he can rely on his villain read. Maybe it is safe to jam?

Me, I vote call. Hero shouldn't risk his whole stack on some sort of fancy play that depends on a rock solid villain read and a mistake from villain.

 

[Beakertwang]

I’ll give one more opportunity for input on this river play, and up post my action this evening after work.

 

[cpac54]

I'm also calling in this spot. As others have mentioned, there's too many hands that beat ours in this spot for me to raise here and put my tournament at risk.

 

[Beakertwang]

I jammed. Villain folded.

So I spazzed out a little. I seriously didn't think a flush or straight made much sense, so I really thought I was good with aces up. But in retrospect, putting my tourney life on the line when I'd never get called with anything except those hands didn't make sense. Folding didn't even cross my mind.

I'll let @Moxie Mike share his holdings if he wants. I only know what he had because he was kind enough to send me the hand history. I will share this much: it wasn't AA, A2, QQ, KJ, or diamonds.

 

[Moxie Mike]

Andrew and I discussed the hand at length the following day... here is the cliff notes version:

Spoiler: My hole cards

A4o is a pretty standard open from the CO as a big stack in a 6 handed game.

The Button call is not unexpected. HERO had enough chips to take a flop with a speculative hand and fold if he missed without much damage to his stack or his ICM equity. At this point, HERO's range contains all the decent aces, big broadway cards and all the speculative hands including PPs under 99.

The flop comes AQ2 with two diamonds. Villain leads out 6k.

HERO popped it to 16k. Facing a raise is kind of a tough spot for Villain to be in. Villain suspects he is behind but doesn't want to fold top pair here even though his kicker is bad. HERO's raise can mean a handful of things.. a set of deuces, a bigger ace, a flush draw or an outright bluff. KQ hoping to fold out weak aces and smaller pairs is also a possibility.

The fact that it was a callable amount suggests HERO didn't flop a set, nor did HERO make aces up. 3-betting is an option for Villain here - but Villain would pretty much only be repping AA, AK, AQ or QQ and Villain is not confident as to how believable this. Villain has a propensity for opening with a wide range at this stage of the tournament. Plus, Villain has no defense if HERO continues in the hand in any way.

So the only 3-bet available is a shove... against which HERO has been observed to make thin calls before for his tournament life. Folding is problematic for meta-game reasons too. So Villain decided to call and see the turn and reevaluate.

The turn deuce pairing the board was probably the best card in the deck for Villain. Kicker is no longer an issue - so Villain checked with the intention of calling. But HERO intelligently checked back.

HERO's check back on the turn suggested either pot control or a flush draw, and that the flop raise may have been a vehicle to get to a free river card and/or to showdown as cheaply as possible. Villain is now planning to bet any river card. Even though HERO won't call with a busted flush draw, Villain views winning without a showdown as good for meta-game reasons.

The river is unpleasant. Villain has too much showdown value to just C/F, so a blocker bet seemed right. Villain chose an amount (12k) that's less than he'd face if he checked. But Villain also would value-bet a made flush or FH the same way in that spot. HERO immediately shoves - confirming Villain's beliefs that HERO was on a FD.

Obviously, releasing was the only viable option to max aggression.

TL;DR: Moxie Mike got married to a rag hand and lost a bunch of chips and the chip lead in the process, and never recovered - going out on the bubble while @Beakertwang, @MrCatPants & @doughboy63 laugh hysterically at my demise:

 

[doughboy63]

Nice right up @Moxie Mike i don’t believed you showed in the game live so was very curious your holding. I am surprised at your reaction during the game. You seemed like you laid down the winner with the way you laid into @Beakertwang. Was that just for show?

 

[Moxie Mike]

Nice right up @Moxie Mike i don’t believed you showed in the game live so was very curious your holding. I am surprised at your reaction during the game. You seemed like you laid down the winner with the way you laid into @Beakertwang. Was that just for show?

I really thought he had a flush there. I was shocked when he sent me the HH.