T20,000 STT Deep Stack Game Seven Handed: Pocket 10's in the Small Blind (1 Viewer)

[Senzrock]

I'm still shocked that the HJ, sitting on 38k, didn't call 1800 in position vs hero getting a great price lol

 

[Legend5555]

I like a slightly larger bet here - hoping to induce villain who won't believe we hit this flop + making stacks shallower so that we can't make many mistakes moving forward.

As long as we are betting and getting it in on most turns. The bet size is kinda whatever. I just want to bet an amount that makes it easy for 55-88 to call. If villain will call larger than 3k with those, then make it bigger. But at 3k, if we get called, pot will be 13.8 and we have 10k back. I think anything that leaves us with 50-75% pot jam on turn is fine.

 

[grebe]

Here's the situation and cast of characters:

This is a seven handed T20,000 starting stack deep stack game, no rebuys, blinds are 300/600 after two hours of play. League points are doubled and are a consideration as it is a deep stack game. Hero is in 1st place and has a 15 point lead on the next person, but that lead can evaporate if hero doesn't cash and 2nd or 3rd place win. Cast of characters and the stack sizes to the best of my memory are below:

UTG: Tight aggressive, competent player that hasn't been very active tonight. Sitting at just about 19,000 in chips just below starting stack

UTG +1: Can get loose and passive preflop and can get a little frisky with some bluffs mixed in post flop, however, will usually lead out post flop only if he has a hand. Just doubled up via hero three hands prior and is sitting at about 22,000.

HJ: Tight aggressive player that can get bluffy and buy pots where there's dead money and he senses weakness. Current chip leader at about 38,000 in chips.

CO: Loose passive preflop player that likes to see lots of flops. Has sticky tendencies. Hasn't been very active but has won a couple of small pots is up slightly at about 25,000 in chips.

Button: Loose passive player that doesn't lead out or raise post flop or on subsequent streets unless he's got a hand. Can make some very good, albeit tight folds on very connected and wet boards when he has second or third best hand on the board. Down a bit at about 18,000 in chips.

SB (hero): You all know me by now. Tight, aggressive, with easily the lowest VPIP of anyone else in this cast of characters. Had been running well the first hour and a half but tilting his balls off now after losing with AJ to UTG with 3/4 suited three hands prior. Was second biggest stack prior to that hand but now at 16,000ish.

BB: Loose and aggressive when short stacked but otherwise tight and aggressive but with sticky tendencies when he's stuck or down in a tournament. Has about only 3,000 left in chips and is in fold or shove mode.

The preflop action played out as follows:

UTG and UTG +1 fold. HJ min raises to 1200. CO folds. Button cold calls. Hero looks down at in the small blind


Hero?

You have 25ish big blinds and a good hand in a great situation. Easy jam.

 

[grebe]

Facing an all in, BB folds, HJ folds, and button cold calls the 3000. Pot is 7200 total.

Flop comes .

Hero?

sigh....

get the money in. what are we doing?

 

[detroitdad]

sigh....

get the money in. what are we doing?

Yep

 

[grebe]

Shoving here is overkill here with mostly everyone still deep stacked except for the big blind to hero's left.

I disagree. It's a great opportunity to force your opponents to fold their OK hands. The cold call has bullshit....he won't call. The original raiser might have something, but you are going to be in great shape against his raise. The blinds are going to be most likely out, unless the short stack decides to call, then you are in great shape against his range. The ONLY player we even need to be a little concerned about is the original raiser.

Hero is still just under 30 BB's deep and can control the size of the pot and still has fold equity on flops that don't favor hero. Hero also sees no reason to bloat the pot out of position, but wants to try and get it heads up to an all in from the BB or with the min raiser or cold caller.

You can't control the size of the pot. Anybody can jam at any moment. You have the hammer....if you call, you give the hammer to someone else. Yes, you are a little big to be all in/fold, but this situation is just too good. You have to be willing to jam here.

Even three ways is not ideal out of position.

Agree! That's why you jam. Get it head's up and maybe you are flipping with dead money in the middle, or maybe you have somebody dominated. Both great outcomes.

 

[Moxie Mike]

I don’t do a good job of maximizing my profits in tournament hands. I’m very happy to collect those chips now, instead of letting him realize his equity by hitting one of his overs. I know, I know, we want to string him along because the odds are in our favor. In a cash game, of course. In a tournament where we can’t reload, I’m not gonna be a greedy little piggy.
Bet the pot.

Being conscious of risk-of-ruin is a more important consideration compared to squeezing every chip out of every situation. There are situations where your plan should be to bet all your chips as early in the hand as possible, but this isn't one of them. Pocket 10s just isn't actually that great of a hand.

Strategizing to drag this pot preflop uncontested is the best plan.

I don't like it.

Scenario 1 also sucks. Think about it. We call, BB jams for 3k, both players call. Now we jam for 13k more on top, so 13k into a 12k pot? How often are BOTH other players going to actually fold getting 2 to 1 pre? This play is just optimistic and greedy. I'm not saying it would never work. But it relies on way to many variables that have to go correctly for us. I don't like relying on others to do what I need then to do.

Your logic is sound, I just don't agree with it. Based on the description, the BB should be jamming a wide range.

My biggest problem with the 3-bet when the action gets to HERO is that he really hasn't accomplished anything if all the players call. He'll be going to the flop with basically a pot-sized bet left in his stack against 3 opponents.

Risk avoidance is also a factor. By calling pre, he's only risking an additional 1.5 BBs. If the hand goes to the flop, he can check/fold if the flop sucks, which it will ~50% of the time.

Pocket 10's is a highly overrated hand unless you can get it all in against a short stack preflop. I definitely don't want to play for stacks here.

 

[Moxie Mike]

Lots of great and polarizing thoughts here that I appreciate so far. Just goes to show that this isn't exactly a straight forward spot. In the moment, I thought back to this hand last year that I actually posted here as well:

https://www.pokerchipforum.com/threads/pocket-10s-utg-am-i-a-nitty-nit.75277/

Not quite exactly the same scenario but very similar with pocket 10's out of position. Either way, trying to learn a lesson from that hand, I have no interest in playing this multiways, so here's what happened.

As stated in the OP, blinds are 300/600, and hero looks down at in the small blind facing a min raise of 1200 from the HJ and a cold call from the button. Considering that BB is still behind with the short stack, hero decides to three bet to 3000 to induce an all in call from BB and play them heads up and to try and get the min raiser and/or the cold caller out of the hand.

Facing an all in, BB folds, HJ folds, and button cold calls the 3000. Pot is 7200 total.

Flop comes .

Hero?

Pretty much the best possible flop for 1010. A c-bet is obvious.

I think 3k is a pretty good amount here. HERO is ahead virtually 100% of the time. Might as well try to squeeze a little value... maybe Villain will peel one with a small pocket pair or a 9 - otherwise he has to be folding virtually everything else.

But considering this is a strategy thread, I suspect the plot is about to thicken

 

[kmccormick100]

Preflop I think you wanna make it something in the 4.5k range, if BB has a hand he wants to go with it doesn’t matter what size you make it. I think with that tiny 3b you got super lucky that the HJ (clearly bad) folded and you went heads up.

As played I think I’m c-betting small, something like 2.4-3k, this board shouldn’t really hit your range all that hard. This sets up just under a pot sized shove on a clean turn. If he Jams you just have to go with it.

 

[Legend5555]

My biggest problem with the 3-bet when the action gets to HERO is that he really hasn't accomplished anything if all the players call. He'll be going to the flop with basically a pot-sized bet left in his stack against 3 opponents.

Exactly why we just jam and not 3 bet to any other size.

I just can't fathom flatting TT OOP in a squeeze spot. That's just ludicrous to me. There is managing risk, then there is just playing afraid. This is the latter. If you aren't willing to go with TT here with 27bb, then what the hell are you even doing? If you don't jam TT, then your jamming range is WAAAAAAAAAAY too weighted to very strong hands and you will never get action on your jams.

What is your plan on flops OOP on at least 2 people on certain runouts? You really planning on just set mining with TT?!? Check jamming low boards? I don't even view this jam as trying to squeeze every drop of EV. There may be a way to play it with more EV. I just find that hard to believe. And if it even exists, it's going to be EXTREMELY hard to play it well from OOP against multiple opponents.

What are you afraid of by jamming here exactly? I'm willing to hear how this could be played more optimally/profitably by calling. But I'm going to need to hear the plans against the multiple different outcomes.

 

[upNdown]

Exactly why we just jam and not 3 bet to any other size.

I just can't fathom flatting TT OOP in a squeeze spot. That's just ludicrous to me. There is managing risk, then there is just playing afraid. This is the latter. If you aren't willing to go with TT here with 27bb, then what the hell are you even doing? If you don't jam TT, then your jamming range is WAAAAAAAAAAY too weighted to very strong hands and you will never get action on your jams.

What is your plan on flops OOP on at least 2 people on certain runouts? You really planning on just set mining with TT?!? Check jamming low boards? I don't even view this jam as trying to squeeze every drop of EV. There may be a way to play it with more EV. I just find that hard to believe. And if it even exists, it's going to be EXTREMELY hard to play it well from OOP against multiple opponents.

What are you afraid of by jamming here exactly? I'm willing to hear how this could be played more optimally/profitably by calling. But I'm going to need to hear the plans against the multiple different outcomes.

Right. I’m with you, and it seems painfully clear to me that jamming is the only decent move, preflop, here.

I wonder if people aren’t jamming because it isn’t “jam time,” like, that point in a tournament where your stack gets short, and you need to just pick a hand and jam it? No, it definitely isn’t jam time, but that’s not why we’re jamming.

 

[JMC9389]

Pretty much the best possible flop for 1010. A c-bet is obvious.

I think 3k is a pretty good amount here. HERO is ahead virtually 100% of the time. Might as well try to squeeze a little value... maybe Villain will peel one with a small pocket pair or a 9 - otherwise he has to be folding virtually everything else.

But considering this is a strategy thread, I suspect the plot is about to thicken

Pretty shocked you got HJ to fold for just 1800 more?? Must be a pretty bad opponent. He’s getting great odds in position. I might describe him a bit different in my next opponent bio because that’s a big leak.

As played, I think we are very happy in this spot and go for ~60% pot, hoping to get it in vs 88/77/66 hands who convince themselves we have AK.

You bet that the plot is going to thicken. I'm going to say now before I post the post flop action and the turn that I think I made two mistakes playing this hand, all of them post flop.

HJ likes to "chip bully" especially when he has a big stack. This is defunitely a leak that I've even told him about months prior, but he continues to do it. You can lead a horse to water....

It's definitely very exploitable and its a big reason why he ended up finishing third at the end of the night instead of maintaining separation and picking his spots. The other guys and I have caught on that if you three bet him relentlessly with a playable hand that he'll back off with anything marginal which he does have 90% of the time he does this. It's more of a meta game with him in this regard but I digress.

As played, flop is super dry. I'm betting 3k and calling a jam. If called, I'm jamming pretty much all non-broadway turns. But really, the villain shouldn't have many calls here unless it's a pair under 9s, 9x, or 99. So if he calls flop, we shouldn't be overly afraid of over cards turns. He shouldn't have AK because that would likely jam pre. If he has JJ and didn't jam pre, more power to him, he gets my money. But I can't imagine we need to be afraid of bigger overpairs here.

Overpairs call or raise here too I think. But wouldn't have he four bet that? Keep in mind, this player is very passive and not terribly sticky. If he four bets or jams pre, I easily put him on aces or kings and I make an easy fold. I agree overpairs aren't a terrible worry, but I've seen him play 7's, 8's, 9's, 10's, Jacks, and even queens this way.

Maybe I missed it, but do we know which players we're trying to finish ahead of for league points here?

Seems like we need a bit more information on the points system. Is it through the end of 2022? Is the end of the year nearing? Is the double points thing something that happens a few times during the year? Once? As of now, hard to understand how the points are a major factor in how we play the hand.

The league started in August and it was game 6 of 10. Not a forgone conclusion hero wins this at all at this point but a win or second place finish here would keep the separation.

The double points come into play because the game has no rebuys to give it as much weight as other games with rebuys. Points earned in a typical game are based on the number of buy ins and rebuys ordinarily. Each player gets a point for showing up. 4th gets 10% of the total number of buy ins, 3rd gets 40%, 2nd 70%, 1st 100%, below 4th gets nothing as this is only an 8 player league.

For example, a 6 handed game with 4 rebuys for a total of 10 buy ins, 10 points is the most one can win, plus their attendance point. However, a splashy 8-handed game with 6 rebuys for a total of 14 buy ins is worth more in points (14), because mathematically that game is harder to win with more chips and players in play.

For reference,

Hero was in 1st with 48 points going into this game.

CO who folded pre was 2nd with 32

HJ who min raised this hand is next with 29

Button is towards the bottom of the pack and isn't a threat points wise.

Hero ended up out 5th out of 7 and earned no additional points. CO ended up winning closing the gap between up just to one point as he earned 15 points.

Button got 2nd and HJ got 3rd to earn 6 more points.

 

[Moxie Mike]

What are you afraid of by jamming here exactly? I'm willing to hear how this could be played more optimally/profitably by calling. But I'm going to need to hear the plans against the multiple different outcomes.

Right. I’m with you, and it seems painfully clear to me that jamming is the only decent move here.

I wonder if people aren’t jamming because it isn’t “jam time,” like, that point in a tournament where your stack gets short, and you need to just pick a hand and jam it? No, it definitely isn’t jam time, but that’s not why we’re jamming.

Here's my problem with jamming: HERO would be risking 27BBs (and his tournament life) to win 5BBs uncontested.

HERO stated in the OP that there are league points considerations and implied that busting early would jeopardize his points lead. One has to assume this is of enough significance that OP included this information at all.

So this hand isn't taking place in the context of a typical tournament.

My concern is what if the HJ or the Button happens to have a hand? Even if they're holding overcards to pocket 1010, HERO would be flipping at a time where he should be avoiding that type of exposure. If HERO had a smaller stack, like say 15BBs, then this is an obvious jam. But HERO has a very maneuverable stack at this stage of the tournament.

The case for jamming is that unless he flops a set, HERO really should be trying to get to showdown against as few opponents as possible as cheaply as possible. So that's the logic of letting the BB bet HERO's hand for him. Obviously it didn't play out that way but if accumulating chips while minimizing exposure is the goal, then I think that would have been the best path to accomplish that.

All in all it's worth pointing out that I'm not trying to convince you of anything. You're both obviously thoughtful players, but there's more than one way to skin a cat.

 

[JMC9389]

One more thought and then I'll post the flop action. I have to go back to work from my lunch break. I'll post the turn action and river tonight and wrap this up this evening.

Overall, 2 2 9 doesn't really hit either of our ranges well. Can the button have a 9 here that he floated a nonsuited or suited 8/9 or 9/10 here in position? Definitely. Could he have pocket 9's? Definitely, but if he does, God bless him and that's just how it goes sometimes. As per my reply above, I'm not too worried about JJ or above as I think he would have four bet jammed JJ+. I have seen him sandbag 10's, Jack's, and queens before in similar spots.

So with this in mind, hero bets 3000 for value into a pot of 7200. Button takes one more look at his cards and calls after about 5 seconds. Pot size is now 13200.

Hero has about 10k left and button about 12k.

Turn comes bringing in no draws to a board of

Hero?

 

[Senzrock]

One more thought and then I'll post the flop action. I have to go back to work from my lunch break. I'll post the turn action and river tonight and wrap this up this evening.

Overall, 2 2 9 doesn't really hit either of our ranges well. Can the button have a 9 here that he floated a nonsuited or suited 8/9 or 9/10 here in position? Definitely. Could he have pocket 9's? Definitely, but if he does, God bless him and that's just how it goes sometimes. As per my reply above, I'm not too worried about JJ or above as I think he would have four bet jammed JJ+. I have seen him sandbag 10's, Jack's, and queens before in similar spots.

So with this in mind, hero bets 3000 for value into a pot of 7200. Button takes one more look at his cards and calla after about 5 seconds. Pot size is now 13200.

Hero has about 10k left and button about 12k.

Turn comes bringing in no draws to a board of

Hero?

Easy jam. If he has it, good for him like you said. Hopefully he calls us with A9s/88/77 or we get him to fold the remaining TT.

 

[Moxie Mike]

So with this in mind, hero bets 3000 for value into a pot of 7200. Button takes one more look at his cards and calls after about 5 seconds. Pot size is now 13200.

Hero has about 10k left and button about 12k.

Turn comes bringing in no draws to a board of

Hero?

Well he probably connected with the board. He's either got a 9 or a deuce.

There are only two options: check or jam.

This is the classic 'way ahead or WAY behind' spot. In these situations, I usually try to rely on my history against the villain to make a decision.

Button: Loose passive player that doesn't lead out or raise post flop or on subsequent streets unless he's got a hand. Can make some very good, albeit tight folds on very connected and wet boards when he has second or third best hand on the board. Down a bit at about 18,000 in chips.

Would the Villain call a jam with a 9? That strengthens the case for jamming since HERO can beat some of his calling range. But if villain would only call with a deuce or pocket 9s, then jamming is less attractive. Ending the hand and dragging the pot now isn't a huge priority anymore, so jamming to induce a fold doesn't seem viable.

Conversely, what would the villain do if checked to? Would he check back a 9? Would he bet only with trips or a FH? Or would he stab at it with a hand like A-9 sensing weakness? Based on the description of the villain he probably checks back a 9.

Knowing what types of hands the villain would bet and check with would be very valuable here.

So if he would ONLY bet a made hand, checking is the better option since you can make a decision based on more complete information.

Remaining in the tournament with as many chips as possible should be HERO's objective at this stage.

 

[grebe]

You bet that the plot is going to thicken. I'm going to say now before I post the post flop action and the turn that I think I made two mistakes playing this hand, all of them post flop.

Disagree....you should have jammed pre. Flatting is a mistake.

Here's my problem with jamming: HERO would be risking 27BBs (and his tournament life) to win 5BBs uncontested.

Yes, this is true. He is also putting himself in a position to WIN a significant amount of chips if called....AND more importantly, he is causing his opponent(s) to put their stack on the line as well. Look at it this way, if we are 50/50 to win against a hand like AJs and we can get him to fold, we are taking his 50% of the pot every time. We also do this same thing with bigger hands too, like AA-JJ, plus AK....and when we get called, we are way ahead of their range. I know you guys like to look at this one scenario under a microscope, but you have to consider ALL the hands you make this play with and ALL the hands your opponent could be holding. When you weight this over the long run, we are doing fantastic here.

AND, 5 BB's puts us over the 30 BB mark, when we can make plays at the pot and be able to fold....which allows us to be even more aggressive and win more dead money.

ions and implied that busting early would jeopardize his points lead. One has to assume this is of enough significance that OP included this information at all.

This is where I will bow out, because I know nothing about trying for a points league title. I would assume however, the better you play over the long run, the points would just come to you.

 

[upNdown]

One more thought and then I'll post the flop action. I have to go back to work from my lunch break. I'll post the turn action and river tonight and wrap this up this evening.

Overall, 2 2 9 doesn't really hit either of our ranges well. Can the button have a 9 here that he floated a nonsuited or suited 8/9 or 9/10 here in position? Definitely. Could he have pocket 9's? Definitely, but if he does, God bless him and that's just how it goes sometimes. As per my reply above, I'm not too worried about JJ or above as I think he would have four bet jammed JJ+. I have seen him sandbag 10's, Jack's, and queens before in similar spots.

So with this in mind, hero bets 3000 for value into a pot of 7200. Button takes one more look at his cards and calls after about 5 seconds. Pot size is now 13200.

Hero has about 10k left and button about 12k.

Turn comes bringing in no draws to a board of

Hero?

You’ve described button as loose passive, and his play to this point supports that. Still, is he a guy who might slow-play a monster? He’s not chasing a straight or a flush here; is he flatting that flop bet with a naked ace? Leaving himself only 20 bb, chasing a three outer? Does he have two Broadway cards and he thinks he’s ahead? I dunno. I don’t understand loose passive players.
This isn’t how I would have played this one, but finding myself here, I’m probably gonna turtle the rest of the way, hope to get to showdown unscathed, and reevaluate if he bets. Because I don’t love it, but I don’t mind moving forward in the tournament with 16 bigs.

 

[grebe]

One more thought and then I'll post the flop action. I have to go back to work from my lunch break. I'll post the turn action and river tonight and wrap this up this evening.

Overall, 2 2 9 doesn't really hit either of our ranges well. Can the button have a 9 here that he floated a nonsuited or suited 8/9 or 9/10 here in position? Definitely. Could he have pocket 9's? Definitely, but if he does, God bless him and that's just how it goes sometimes. As per my reply above, I'm not too worried about JJ or above as I think he would have four bet jammed JJ+. I have seen him sandbag 10's, Jack's, and queens before in similar spots.

So with this in mind, hero bets 3000 for value into a pot of 7200. Button takes one more look at his cards and calls after about 5 seconds. Pot size is now 13200.

Hero has about 10k left and button about 12k.

Turn comes bringing in no draws to a board of

Hero?

Im out. My money was already in. Anything past flop action.....seriously.....is fluff.

 

[grebe]

I know there are at least a few here that think I just play wreckless or that I don't play tournaments at all. That's fair....as I am aggressive and have no qualms about going out on my shield....most people are going to lose, but I'll be damned if I will be blinded out.

Just have a watch at this video and pay attention to his bet sizings. He is always working to get stacks in because it is short stacked tournament poker. This is the way....

 

[Moxie Mike]

You’ve described button as loose passive, and his play to this point supports that. Still, is he a guy who might slow-play a monster?

Well, imagine if you're the villain here and you flopped trips, quads or a FH. Would you raise this flop?

I don't think anyone would advocate anything other than a smooth call.

 

[upNdown]

I know there are at least a few here that think I just play wreckless or that I don't play tournaments at all

I think I usually disagree with you, but I don’t think those things. Just different styles. But I agree with you on this one, so there’s some overlap.

 

[Legend5555]

On turn:

Unless you think villain is going to show up with JJ+ super often, then he has way more 9s than 2s here. Both because hands with 2s shouldn't be in here in the first place and because there are two 2s on the board.

We have less than a pot sized bet left and top pair hasn't changed. If he called with a 9 on the flop, I highly doubt he's folding a 9 here. And since you are presumably never folding to a bet/jam from him, the only reason not to jam is if villain will bluff with overcards. I don't see that happening.

So since you are going to lose no matter what if he has you beat, and he will call with worse, and he won't bet worse very often, we just jam. It would be a disaster to check and have him check back. You don't want a big card coming and scaring him off of calling you.

 

[Moxie Mike]

On turn:

Unless you think villain is going to show up with JJ+ super often, then he has way more 9s than 2s here. Both because hands with 2s shouldn't be in here in the first place and because there are two 2s on the board.

We have less than a pot sized bet left and top pair hasn't changed. If he called with a 9 on the flop, I highly doubt he's folding a 9 here. And since you are pediment never folding to a bet/jam from him, the only reason not to jam is if villain will bluff with overcards. I don't see that happening.

So since you are going to lose no matter what if he has you beat, and he will call with worse, and he won't bet worse very often, we just jam. It would be a disaster to check and have him check back. You don't want a big card coming and scaring him off of calling you.

I think I lean this way too. I think if Villain is only betting with a deuce then we can take a c/f line - but that's such an oddly specific read it would be almost impossible to quantify in real time.

Loose-passive players take a LOT of flops with a pretty wide range. Villain probably has a few more deuces than you might expect depending on how loose his PF standards are. I've seen players like this peel flops with Q2s, J2s, K2s, A2s, etc.

 

[upNdown]

I think I lean this way too. I think if Villain is only betting with a deuce then we can take a c/f line - but that's such an oddly specific read it would be almost impossible to quantify in real time.

Loose-passive players take a LOT of flops with a pretty wide range. Villain probably has a few more deuces than you might expect depending on how loose his PF standards are. I've seen players like this peel flops with Q2s, J2s, K2s, A2s, etc.

(It was suited?)

 

[Legend5555]

(It was suited?)

What a donkey you are! Don't even know how to spell "sooted!"

 

[Legend5555]

I've seen players like this peel flops with Q2s, J2s, K2s, A2s, etc.

True, but that also means he can have all sorts of other stuff as well that we are beating. So at worst, it evens out.

 

[upNdown]

I've seen players like this peel flops with Q2s, J2s, K2s, A2s, etc.

If this MFer wins this hand with a Q2, I’m quitting poker!

 

[JMC9389]

Well he probably connected with the board. He's either got a 9 or a deuce.

There are only two options: check or jam.

This is the classic 'way ahead or WAY behind' spot. In these situations, I usually try to rely on my history against the villain to make a decision.



Would the Villain call a jam with a 9? That strengthens the case for jamming since HERO can beat some of his calling range. But if villain would only call with a deuce or pocket 9s, then jamming is less attractive. Ending the hand and dragging the pot now isn't a huge priority anymore, so jamming to induce a fold doesn't seem viable.

Conversely, what would the villain do if checked to? Would he check back a 9? Would he bet only with trips or a FH? Or would he stab at it with a hand like A-9 sensing weakness? Based on the description of the villain he probably checks back a 9.

Knowing what types of hands the villain would bet and check with would be very valuable here.

So if he would ONLY bet a made hand, checking is the better option since you can make a decision based on more complete information.

Remaining in the tournament with as many chips as possible should be HERO's objective at this stage.

The bolded information is what's most important here, especially the last bolded line. I'm not kidding when I say this particular villain will only lead out, in or out of position, unless he has a hugely made hand. If he raises when bet into, it's an insta fold for me unless I myself have the nuts. This is exactly my thought in this situation. On a turn that's a relative blank, I lean more towards a check to kind of see where I'm at. If he bets out, I can presume he has a 2, and it gives me a chance to groan fold. If he checks back, on a river card that looks favorable, I can go ahead and get it in.

The other thought here is what does villain presume I have here? I three bet preflop out of position, small, but a three bet nonetheless. Do I do this with pocket two's and flop quads? Maybe but unlikely. I've raised and three bet suited aces that would allow for a low straight draw or broadway hand in the small blind like this many times. I can have Ace/2 here, but that's about it really. Less likely I do this with A/9 suited. I can also be trying to squeeze with a pocket pair 9's or above as well.

To answer the other bolded points here, yes, I do think this particular villain would check back a 9. I also get the sense this is a situation where I'm way behind or way ahead. It's very unlikely that this villain calls me down after this flop with anything less than two pair here.

 

[JMC9389]

Anyway, per my reply to @Moxie Mike above, I really am not sure where I'm at here and have pretty much resigned to the fact that I'm either way ahead or way behind here. With a board of that's pretty dry outside of the paired twos and the inconsequential turn that doesn't really change much, Hero opts to check. Button checks back, and hero is now officially confused.

We then go on to see a very interesting river of the



Hero?