According to GTO Wizard, TT is 92% jam and 8% call with 25ish bb. for me this is 100% jam. i was pointing out though, that if you wanted to deviate for the sake of some exploit or game dynamic, the OP might have an argument, but short of that it is definitely a jam.
I'm pretty surprised by that. Do the GTO Wizard charts take position into account? Seems a little bit overkill to shove with so many big blinds.
GTO Wizard has, given the action wasn't a jam pre, a bet of 4.6bb about 70% to a bet of 2bb 30% on the flopAnyway, per my reply to @Moxie Mike above, I really am not sure where I'm at here and have pretty much resigned to the fact that I'm either way ahead or way behind here. With a board of
that's pretty dry outside of the paired twos and the inconsequential turn that doesn't really change much, Hero opts to check. Button checks back, and hero is now officially confused.
We then go on to see a very interesting river of the
Hero?
yes obviously position is a key piece of data - with starting stacks of 25bb which is as close as i can get it with GTO Wizard but it's close enough.
This is what I tried to address at one point. It really isn’t about how many blinds you have. It’s about the fact that the only guy who hasn’t acted yet can’t hurt you, and the two guys who have acted - a minraise and a flat- just really aren’t calling your jam, ever.
Call it a leak, but I did include the information in the OP that can be somewhat pertinent that hero just lost a big all in hand just three hands prior going in as a big favorite. Hero is still blowing off steam but instead of betting out and playing with more aggression, I tend to try and calm things down a little bit, play some poker, and get my bearings right again. I try too hard sometimes to tighten up and to not go on monkey tilt that I may not play some premiums optimally to the point that I underplay them. Was this one of those hands? Maybe...
as the pot gets shoved his way.
I stand firmly by the idea that your biggest mistake was not jamming preflop. Given how this went down, I wouldn't be shocked if the guy folds that hand to your jam preflop.I'm going to post the final results of the thread in spoiler tags in case those following earlier don't see the result by accident before the middle of the hand.
With a third two coming out, that makes it even less likely that villain has one and that I'm likely in a situation where villain has at least one 9 or a middle of the road pocket pair like 7's, 8's, 9's, or 10's that he was slowplaying from the flop onwards. The pot is now 13,000+, and each of us have just under a pot size bet left here.
I looked up at the button after the third two came out, and he looked visibly uncomfortable. Shoving all in would make him fold just about instantly. With this, in the moment, I decided on a bet of 5000 into a pot of 13000. Enough to get value but small enough to make it look like that I want a call. Now, there are very few hands with 2's in them that I would three bet out of position, but villain was really worried about me having the fourth two. He starting cursing under his breath almost immediately once the 5000 bet hit the felt and he went into the tank. He tanked.....tanked.....and tanked for almost two minutes before deciding on........a call, right after saying "I'm probably absolutely dominated here, but I have to see it. You have the two don't you?"
I turn over my 10's and he turns over
My thoughts:
So now I'm down to under 10 BB's and now in shove or fold mode.
I mentioned earlier that I think I made two mistakes on this hand. The first I think was not betting the turn and keeping the pressure on. Even with two pair, I think that if I continued to bet the turn, this particular villain would have given up thinking I had a two.
The second mistake was not shoving all in on the river. I don't think this villain would have found a call on a shove rather than a 8 BB value bet.
After running hotter than the sun in 2021, 2022 is off to a pretty rough start, but lots of it is self inflicted. Back to the books for me...
Given the turn action it seems really unlikely that the villain flopped trips and has now rivered quads.Anyway, per my reply to @Moxie Mike above, I really am not sure where I'm at here and have pretty much resigned to the fact that I'm either way ahead or way behind here. With a board of
We then go on to see a very interesting river of the
Hero?
Definitely Mike. I should never have a single two in this spot as played. I was very confused by his ruminations as such. He's also not savvy enough that he'd be trying to angle me into giving up information. Either way, it wouldnt work. I give up nothing when I'm in a hand.Given the turn action it seems really unlikely that the villain flopped trips and has now rivered quads.
It seems like a value bet would be appropriate to try to squeeze a little value from a 9. A 'please-call-me' bet of like 3k sounds about right. If you get jammed on, you're probably going to have to make a crying call.
Just read the spoiler.
The villain shouldn't ever suspect you of holding a deuce in this spot. The fact that he did highly suggests he is not a savvy player. He is also very risk averse - a highly exploitable weakness that should be noted.
The fact that he rechecked his hole cards after the flop is kind of bizarre. Did he forget what he had?
Interesting hand. Thanks for posting
I mean, that's also fitting for this hand.
Create an account or login to comment
You must be a member in order to leave a comment
Create account
Create an account and join our community. It's easy!
Log in
Already have an account? Log in here.
