COVID-19 (Corona virous) and your home game? (3 Viewers)

[ReallyGoodUsername]

Some recent “death rate” news, and maybe a little education for the amateur scientists

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ws...initial-estimates-new-study-finds-11584663474

In line with the initial reports which all noted that the total infected was higher than reported which would drive down the mortality rate. Glad to hear it’s that low but that would still mean it’s 7x higher than influenza which is still quite concerning.

 

[viet rounder]

There’s probably not but I think the argument against it is that there could be. You don’t have to show symptoms to have it and be able to spread it and like an STD and sex, ie you’re coming into contact with everyone else each player has in about the last 4 days (takes up to 4 days to start showing symptoms I believe). If one of the players did the same thing the a night or two before, you’d be coming into contact with the 5-6 of them + the people they’d all recently been in contact with. That’s the reason... now, is that worth missing out on playing live poker at this movement? It’s for each individual to decide.

PS thanks for sharing! I don’t mean to come off as judging your choice at all. Your group seems to definitely understand the risks and if you’re going to meet up knows and is willing to take the right precautions. Just wanted to share why others may decide to skip playing live poker. If I lived in a more rural place I’d probably be more keen to the idea (right or wrong) but living in a city has made me a lot more aware of how many people/peoples germs I could come into contact with just walking to the grocery store.

Your point is well taken and I don’t take offence at all. I’m always up to sharing my experience and encourage others to do the same as that is what this forum is for. I just don’t agree with many that we should be hoarding toilet papers and putting ourselves in ‘complete’ isolation just yet. While it’s wise to keep a distance and staying home on a regular basis, I don’t think a small get-together of 5-6 guys every two weeks puts me more at risk than any danger we are already surrounded by in our daily life when things are normal. Just be cautious, advise others in your circle to be cautious, and hope for the best.

 

[ekricket]

In line with the initial reports which all noted that the total infected was higher than reported which would drive down the mortality rate. Glad to hear it’s that low but that would still mean it’s 7x higher than influenza which is still quite concerning.

And it’s still “changing” which is quite stupid, as is reporting “death rates” for different countries, like a virus is more or less lethal according to some man made boundary.
It’s crazy that we expect all the logistics in the country to keep running and deliver our hard goods, yet we can’t get the media to come together and deliver us consistent and reliable information concerning this. It’s still about sensationalism and politics instead of what we really need. People can blame whoever or whatever for this crisis, but one thing for me is that the media has made this far worse than it could have been, and their “reporting” still confuses and hinders us getting out of this in a reasonable period of time.
I know people are buying a lot of stuff, but photos of empty shelves simply drive more people out to panic buy
Misleading numbers touted everywhere confuse and panic people - you can get numbers to support whatever your argument is
Its almost like their agenda is to keep everyone worked up into a state of panic, instead of calming everyone. Which is not surprising, given that 40-50% of the country just want to see this administration burn, no matter the cost to the country. Self fulfilling prophecies are usually extremely destructive

 

[ReallyGoodUsername]

And it’s still “changing” which is quite stupid, as is reporting “death rates” for different countries, like a virus is more or less lethal according to some man made boundary.
It’s crazy that we expect all the logistics in the country to keep running and deliver our hard goods, yet we can’t get the media to come together and deliver us consistent and reliable information concerning this. It’s still about sensationalism and politics instead of what we really need. People can blame whoever or whatever for this crisis, but one thing for me is that the media has made this far worse than it could have been, and their “reporting” still confuses and hinders us getting out of this in a reasonable period of time.
I know people are buying a lot of stuff, but photos of empty shelves simply drive more people out to panic buy
Misleading numbers touted everywhere confuse and panic people - you can get numbers to support whatever your argument is
Its almost like their agenda is to keep everyone worked up into a state of panic, instead of calming everyone. Which is not surprising, given that 40-50% of the country just want to see this administration burn, no matter the cost to the country. Self fulfilling prophecies are usually extremely destructive

Thank you for sharing you view on this.

 

[jazzV3]

.......and running a cash game is simply out of the question.

Just curious - why do you say that?

 

[shahnuli]

I have moved our regular home games that we hold around 2-3 times a week to online. I have three diff groups I play with - all moved online. One thing that has made the move online easier and that has kept the social aspect still going: we also use vid conferencing while playing poker. So people still play and joke around almost like we all are in the same room. Zoom is 15 bucks for the pro version. It has been well worth it and hopefully we are doing our very small part of keeping everyone safe whilst having a great time.

 

[ReallyGoodUsername]

I have moved our regular home games that we hold around 2-3 times a week to online. I have three diff groups I play with - all moved online. One thing that has made the move online easier and that has kept the social aspect still going: we also use vid conferencing while playing poker. So people still play and joke around almost like we all are in the same room. Zoom is 15 bucks for the pro version. It has been well worth it and hopefully we are doing our very small part of keeping everyone safe whilst having a great time.

That’s a great idea! Me and my gfs friends have been doing the video conf stuff for happy hours, brunch, video gaming, and nearly all of us had never used vconf for anything but work before. Definitely something that I’m sure will stay in our culture more now even if it’s just to connect to people from different states or countries

 

[ekricket]

Thank you for sharing you view on this.

Hey, no problem. If you need more discussion let me know.

 

[RoyalBluff]

I personally would not cancel a homegame unless the virus was rampant in your respective area

Yes, if you happen to live in Nepal, Papua New Guinea or Yukon, Canada, feel free to keep your games running.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

 

[Jambine]

I’ve read through most of this thread and decided to weigh in.

Governor Polis closed all casinos in Colorado this week. I’m unemployed for the next 30 days (at least). Although I’m older, I don’t consider myself at high risk because I’m in good health overall, don’t drink or smoke. But I recognize that I am at risk and I’m taking reasonable precautions.

At some point in the future we will look back on this and say one of two things: Either we overreacted and did more damage than the virus, or, thank god we acted quickly and decisively because only xxx number of people died.

Most of the things we are asked to do are just common sense. Yes, they are inconvenient, but not unreasonable compared to the downside (death).

I was appalled watching news coverage of spring break festivities in Florida. Young people know they are at low risk and seem to not care about spreading this to their grandparents. I am compelled to point out to them that their grandparents were asked to fight a World War to preserve our way of life. Now, we are simply asking that people stay home. Research suggests that most human brains take about 25 years to develop and I believe that now more than ever.

 

[halfbreed]

Which is not surprising, given that 40-50% of the country just want to see this administration burn, no matter the cost to the country.

You complain about sensationalism and politics, and then post hyperbolic statements like this.

 

[DrStrange]

This pandemic event is, for the moment, the accumulation of tiny risks. At worst each contact is a 1 - 1,000 risk that said person has the virus. At best it is a 1 - 10,000 risk. (noting the risk is doubling roughly every week.) Your personal situation may further modify the risk one way or the other. Then you have to contract the disease due to the contact - wild guess 10% but that is an uneducated guess.

So you host a poker game with five other players. This week is wasn't that daunting a chance. Lets say it is 1 - 5000 per player or one chance in a thousand to be exposed or one in ten thousand you'll get sick. Over all, that is not so terribly daunting in isolation. But . . . .

1) You have imposed that risk onto your family. Maybe they care more for risk mitigation. Or maybe you don't care what they think. Perhaps everyone is ok with the tiny risk. The point is this is a "team sport".

2) The risk doubles roughly every week. This is a broad simplification, but it is directionally correct. Next week the 1 - 10,000 becomes 1 - 5,000 then 1 - 2,500 and 1 - 1,250 by the fourth week. End of next month gets you down to 1 - 78. Your cumulative risk from eight poker games with five people once per week is slightly worse than 1 in 40 to contract the disease. ( noting I ignored the auto-correlation issues, the fact you didn't get sick the last four games mitigates some of the risk of the fifth and future games.)

3) Every chance you take also accumulates the risk. Over the last week or two, your accumulated risk is still rather small. But please be hyper focused on the doubling effect. Do not take the point of view that "nothing has happened so far, so nothing is ever going to happen".

What risk you are willing to take is the total of your choices and the choices of everyone else you keep close. Same thing for each of the close people in your life.

As can been seen in this thread, people hold divergent opinions. Each of us is free to make our own decisions, though folks in shelter in place states have been ordered not to take such risks. I don't much care for taking uncompensated tiny risks. I do buckle my seat belt. I do think a flu shot is a good idea. I did cancel my weekly card games.

You do you. Please be mindful you are also doing the rest of your family too -=- DrStrange

 

[Hornet]

This pandemic event is, for the moment, the accumulation of tiny risks. At worst each contact is a 1 - 1,000 risk that said person has the virus. At best it is a 1 - 10,000 risk. (noting the risk is doubling roughly every week.) Your personal situation may further modify the risk one way or the other. Then you have to contract the disease due to the contact - wild guess 10% but that is an uneducated guess.

So you host a poker game with five other players. This week is wasn't that daunting a chance. Lets say it is 1 - 5000 per player or one chance in a thousand to be exposed or one in ten thousand you'll get sick. Over all, that is not so terribly daunting in isolation. But . . . .

1) You have imposed that risk onto your family. Maybe they care more for risk mitigation. Or maybe you don't care what they think. Perhaps everyone is ok with the tiny risk. The point is this is a "team sport".

2) The risk doubles roughly every week. This is a broad simplification, but it is directionally correct. Next week the 1 - 10,000 becomes 1 - 5,000 then 1 - 2,500 and 1 - 1,250 by the fourth week. End of next month gets you down to 1 - 78. Your cumulative risk from eight poker games with five people once per week is slightly worse than 1 in 40 to contract the disease. ( noting I ignored the auto-correlation issues, the fact you didn't get sick the last four games mitigates some of the risk of the fifth and future games.)

3) Every chance you take also accumulates the risk. Over the last week or two, your accumulated risk is still rather small. But please be hyper focused on the doubling effect. Do not take the point of view that "nothing has happened so far, so nothing is ever going to happen".

What risk you are willing to take is the total of your choices and the choices of everyone else you keep close. Same thing for each of the close people in your life.

As can been seen in this thread, people hold divergent opinions. Each of us is free to make our own decisions, though folks in shelter in place states have been ordered not to take such risks. I don't much care for taking uncompensated tiny risks. I do buckle my seat belt. I do think a flu shot is a good idea. I did cancel my weekly card games.

You do you. Please be mindful you are also doing the rest of your family too -=- DrStrange

Dr. Strange, as usual I agree with most of what you say, and you say it quite clearly.

The issue I am struggling with is whether the “cure” may be worse than the disease. The “cure” right now through executive order and other means looks like it will grind the U.S. economy to a halt. Businesses are shutting down, and most importantly workers are getting laid off. Many of those people literally live paycheck to paycheck. How does our economy survive this?

Critical industries in Europe already are having their workers come in sick ... there’s no choice because essential services must be provided.

I don’t doubt that COVID-19 is worse than the flu. What I worry about is that the drastic measures we are taking (for months?) will utterly decimate our economy and leave our country in complete shambles. If it was a shut down for a couple of weeks, no big deal. But I think we are looking at many months of the shutdown.

Perhaps we would be better off practicing social distancing but otherwise trying to keep our economy moving and focusing on expanding medical capacity. In any event, I want to ask you, how in the hell are we going to come out of an economic destruction the likes of which may be unprecedented?

 

[Jambine]

You do you. Please be mindful you are also doing the rest of your family too -=- DrStrange

Well said.
Also, I never answered the OP. No, we have not had a home game since January

 

[JeepologyOffroad]

Dr. Strange, as usual I agree with most of what you say, and you say it quite clearly.

The issue I am struggling with is whether the “cure” may be worse than the disease. The “cure” right now through executive order and other means looks like it will grind the U.S. economy to a halt. Businesses are shutting down, and most importantly workers are getting laid off. Many of those people literally live paycheck to paycheck. How does our economy survive this?

Critical industries in Europe already are having their workers come in sick ... there’s no choice because essential services must be provided.

I don’t doubt that COVID-19 is worse than the flu. What I worry about is that the drastic measures we are taking (for months?) will utterly decimate our economy and leave our country in complete shambles. If it was a shut down for a couple of weeks, no big deal. But I think we are looking at many months of the shutdown.

Perhaps we would be better off practicing social distancing but otherwise trying to keep our economy moving and focusing on expanding medical capacity. In any event, I want to ask you, how in the hell are we going to come out of an economic destruction the likes of which may be unprecedented?

Well put. My thoughts exactly as stated in the politics forum. Hopefully more are thinking along these lines as well

 

[HebrewChuckNorris]

Heres the thing. China did a hardcore lockdown for just over 2 months, and came out on top.

If we could do the same thing, we would also have good results. The thing is we can't/won't. People go out for dinner, or to a poker game, or any number of things they think are low risk. And they are low risk in a vacuum, but when thousands of people do it, some will catch the virus and spread it, and we'll be screwed for waaay longer than 2 months.

 

[halfbreed]

Dr. Strange, as usual I agree with most of what you say, and you say it quite clearly.

The issue I am struggling with is whether the “cure” may be worse than the disease. The “cure” right now through executive order and other means looks like it will grind the U.S. economy to a halt. Businesses are shutting down, and most importantly workers are getting laid off. Many of those people literally live paycheck to paycheck. How does our economy survive this?

Critical industries in Europe already are having their workers come in sick ... there’s no choice because essential services must be provided.

I don’t doubt that COVID-19 is worse than the flu. What I worry about is that the drastic measures we are taking (for months?) will utterly decimate our economy and leave our country in complete shambles. If it was a shut down for a couple of weeks, no big deal. But I think we are looking at many months of the shutdown.

Perhaps we would be better off practicing social distancing but otherwise trying to keep our economy moving and focusing on expanding medical capacity. In any event, I want to ask you, how in the hell are we going to come out of an economic destruction the likes of which may be unprecedented?

I think the lack of testing (which is still a major issue) basically backed us into a corner. If testing was widespread and quick, we would have had a better handle on hotspots and could have had much more effective targeted shutdowns. Without testing and not having a solid understanding of how widespread the problem is, one of the only temp solutions to prevent a disaster was to isolate everybody.

Going forward, hopefully once testing catches up we can see where the hotspots are and cautiously free up areas as infections start a downward trend. Basically, we'll have to wait and see though. Right now I don't see much of another option.

Side note, my small, now isolated town of 8K or so just had it's first confirmed case. Guy didn't have symptoms until the 15th, so he likely caught it a week before or so. We're a resort town with a ton of close contact with people from everywhere and I'm sure it's spread quite a bit further. Supposedly there were 5 likely cases total as of a couple of days ago.

EDIT: check that, there are 30 tests pending. 36 tests so far, 1 confirmed, 5 negative.

 

[DrStrange]

Is the "cure" worse than the "disease"? We are having a lively discussion about these sorts of questions in the restricted political forum.

I shouldn't discuss political issues in this public thread. If done, someone will complain, and this threat too will disappear into the restricted section.

Ask your questions in politics, because the answers are inherently political at least in part.

Let's not offend any sensitive feelings -=- DrStrange

 

[Burke]

I'm not going to the politics forum on this site. I am interested as to when we may see a benefit in the rate of disease spread. from the measures we have taken as a society (or when we would expect to see one). So far just from raw numbers, I don't see a decrease in the doubling rate. Can anyone point me towards a reliable source on this if out there?

 

[Poker Zombie]

I can only point you to the CDC or the Tennessee Department of Health (your local state is probably as good).

Funny thing is, I see no sensationalism from the media. Most networks are reporting exactly what the doctors and scientists are saying. Sure, one network had reported that it came from eating bats (wrong) and that same network said that the United States was well prepared for this (also wrong). If you saw either of those on your news broadcast, stop watching - they are the sensationalist ones.

In the meantime, in these troubled times, fact check everything with the CDC or your state health department. Yes, the CDC has been placed under government censorship, so remember that things are probably worse - not better - than they report because it is not in the government's best interest to start a panic or a recession, unless it saves lives.

Also keep in mind that while elderly and already sick people are at a higher risk, lots of young, healthy individuals have been hospitalized from Covid-19. Other than the day you were born, any time spent in a hospital is a bad thing.

 

[Tarheel4Life]

Some recent “death rate” news, and maybe a little education for the amateur scientists

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ws...initial-estimates-new-study-finds-11584663474

It’s 20-25x deadlier than the flu. I think that reporting has been pretty consistent including this article.

80% have a shitty time and get over it in 12-17 days
20% have a severe case

Of those with a severe case:
— 3 of every 4 people will need hospitalization by day 8 (~15% of total infected people)

Of those that need hospitalization:
— Nearly all of them will be intubated
— 1 of every 7 hospitalized people will die (slightly over 2% of the total infected people)

When you are at intubated in the hospital, the nurses need to come every 4 hours (if they’re not swamped, which they are) to suction out your tube. It will fill with bloody frothy liquid from the burst air sacs in their lungs as a result of the infection). Lying there, alone because you’re in isolation, you will go through the unique torture of feeling waterboarded with scant minutes of relief every 4 hours.

For those that recover and leave the hospital (88% of those hospitalized), 2 in every 5 will have lifelong breathing complications from the disease.

This is not the flu. This is a deadly virus that systematically attacks your lungs ability to bring oxygen into your body whilst simultaneously attacking your body’s ability to transport oxygen via the blood.

Yes, it’s not Ebola or the the chemical weapon from The Rock or even MERS or SARS. Those are all very deadly - deadly enough that they wouldn’t spread.

If you wanted to engineer a virus that would cause the maximum damage to the world’s population, you’d ensure that it:

1) had a long incubation period for maximum spread throughout the population
2) made it contagious even when not showing symptoms
3) put the death rate at sub-5% so it wouldn’t burn itself out like Ebola and SARS
4) have it attack multiple systems and the body’s ability to oxygenate

This is exactly what COVID-19 is. This was the worst case scenario so far regarding a pandemic.

Four things could make it far far worse:

1) The public steadfastly refuses to do whatever is necessary to flatten the curve (we’re almost fucked in this regard)

2) Our bodies don’t build antibodies for the disease

3) The virus goes through rapid and frequent mutation, making inoculation virtually impossible and immunity a pipe dream.

A lot of things in the media are overhyped.

This is not one of them.

NOTE: all the numbers I shared here will get markedly worse as health care workers get sick, which is already happening with alarming frequency. They lack the protective equipment they need - sadly and particularly in the US. Eventually the people that work in our various supply chains will get sick and things will really start to break down. I’m not saying go into full prepper mode (though it’s hard to chastise someone that does) but have a plan B, C, D etc in case you get sick and your family gets sick. And please include plans to have your pets cared for if you’re single or there are just 2 of you and you have a dog or a cat).

 

[Tarheel4Life]

For those that think a 15% hospitalization rate are good odds, these are roughly your odds playing Russian roulette with a revolver.

 

[Jake14mw]

I'm not going to the politics forum on this site. I am interested as to when we may see a benefit in the rate of disease spread. from the measures we have taken as a society (or when we would expect to see one). So far just from raw numbers, I don't see a decrease in the doubling rate. Can anyone point me towards a reliable source on this if out there?

I have been trying to follow it all pretty closely. The problem with knowing the benefit of the measures is that we have no good way to know how many people had the virus before the measures went into place. So, there is no real way to know the numbers as much as we all want to know them.

 

[Jake14mw]

This pandemic event is, for the moment, the accumulation of tiny risks...

As can been seen in this thread, people hold divergent opinions. Each of us is free to make our own decisions, though folks in shelter in place states have been ordered not to take such risks. I don't much care for taking uncompensated tiny risks. I do buckle my seat belt. I do think a flu shot is a good idea. I did cancel my weekly card games.

You do you. Please be mindful you are also doing the rest of your family too -=- DrStrange

.... and doing everyone else that you and your family come in contact with.

 

[Burke]

I have been trying to follow it all pretty closely. The problem with knowing the benefit of the measures is that we have no good way to know how many people had the virus before the measures went into place. So, there is no real way to know the numbers as much as we all want to know them.

You can use some statistical modeling to make a range on how many people had the infection when our initial attempts at social distancing went into effect. I'm not sure it matters anyway. The number of people infected with COVID-19 right now isn't the biggest issue...it's what that number will look like in 1-2 weeks then 1-2 weeks from that.

It doesn't matter that we don't have our own control. We can use Italy as our control group failure. We have, what a week-long lag compared to them. Right now our rate of spread of the virus is essentially the same (or worse) as theirs was at the same days since first case.

 

[halfbreed]

Article detailing how COVID-19 can cause sudden respiratory failure in young, healthy patients. This is just one doctor's experience, but it certainly is eye-opening.

https://www.propublica.org/article/...ilure-from-covid19-even-in-his-young-patients

Seems like while most people come out of it ok when infected, it hits some people, even healthy people, extremely hard, and we have no idea why yet.

 

[Tarheel4Life]

Article detailing how COVID-19 can cause sudden respiratory failure in young, healthy patients. This is just one doctor's experience, but it certainly is eye-opening.

https://www.propublica.org/article/...ilure-from-covid19-even-in-his-young-patients

Seems like while most people come out of it ok when infected, it his some people, even healthy people, extremely hard, and we have no idea why yet.

That is literally terrifying.

 

[Burke]

— Nearly all of them will be intubated

Can you cite a resource for this?

Edited to add: there is concern for increasing aerosolization by using noninvasive ventilation with bipap and cpap so admittedly there was a heavy preference for early intubation. That is obviously not going to be possible for everyone.

 

[halfbreed]

That is literally terrifying.

Extremely.

 

[Burke]

I can only point you to the CDC or the Tennessee Department of Health (your local state is probably as good).

I appreciate the response. I check those often - unfortunately neither are helpful and don't even touch on this question. I'm pretty sure the CDC is insulting my intelligence at this point.