Have we finally reached market saturation?? (6 Viewers)

[Venturalvn]

I think Tina options have taken up a lot of the $1-2/chip RHC demand and the last 2 NAGBs have taken up a lot of the $10/chip mint THC demand.

This feels right. All of the "righteous" collectors have poo-poo'd RHC for so long that they've become undesirable unless trying to complete ChipRoom sales sets, and the lower end of the market can now pay 40 cents a chip for full customs.

NAGB are now more available than historical THC sets, are piping hot mint, are designed by chippers, and anyone with $10 a chip budget can pick and choose their favorite chip to murder and relabel instead of scraping for casino chips that are not only not exactly what they wanted, but are also not in the best shape.

 

[Venturalvn]

I can also say that my chipping budget is not what it once was. I fall into the group that my post-COVID fun money spending peaked, and I'm more conservative these days. I spent a lot during that time, got everything in place that I had been wanting for a while, and now there's not much left to do but enjoy what I have.

Travel is also picking up. $25k vacations tend to highlight what's important, and what's not important is adding a 10th chip set.

 

[JMC9389]

This feels right. All of the "righteous" collectors have poo-poo'd RHC for so long that they've become undesirable unless trying to complete ChipRoom sales sets, and the lower end of the market can now pay 40 cents a chip for full customs.

NAGB are now more available than historical THC sets, are piping hot mint, are designed by chippers, and anyone with $10 a chip budget can pick and choose their favorite chip to murder and relabel instead of scraping for casino chips that are not only not exactly what they wanted, but are also not in the best shape.

Yep. And for better or worse, the Greek key and scrown tributes are going to be game changers.

 

[jamesjkim]

If you want the good stuff you better b) make friends with the right people.

Anyone want to be my friend? Looking for THCs

 

[doublebooyah85]

but I need that 15th rack of the same denom to just sit around looking pretty

And and now you need 16 to be even.

And 20 to fill two birdcages.

 

[louBdub]

If a PCF’er has chips I want, I will gladly exchange cash or chips in trade for them.

As for friendships, I prefer to maintain and develop them the old fashion way, and strengthen relationships over time.

I will not barter or broker friendships - for chips. Nor will I ever kowtow for a grail set or rack.

 

[LeLe]

I felt like I got more than what I am looking for since I had dive into the chipping hobby, I don't really need the Mint THC TRK set anymore at the market price nowsadays too.

Having mint RHC CPC set plus Premium plastic set is enough for me.

I do want to add one more premium plastic chip set to my collection if the price is right.

 

[ChipEnvy]

Flash Sales at "Bargain Prices" of NAGB chips are going unbought. I like the chips, but still need prices to drop 50% until I am even considering a buy. I won't hold my breath.

Heading in the right direction though!

 

[grantc54]

It seems a lot of people are trying to sell at their cost, a cost reflecting the top of the market when everyone was flush with cash.

Just because it is at or just below your cost does make it a good deal, sale price, or bargain if you overpaid. At last count I think 10% of posts listed at a "great deal" were actually a good deal.

Personally I have acquired every chip I could possibly need for tournament or cash for the rest of my poker career (hoping for another 30-40 years) and am just shopping to fill out sets here or there when an actual good deal pops up.

 

[FestiveKnight]

A few things I think always affect the market and certainly are now.

A dissonance between sample/singles collecting and set building. I think it was @BarrieJ3 who said this somewhere recently but I wonder how many small sets could be reasonably cobbled together if this changed. I don’t have a great moral cause against singles/samples collecting but I do think it slows down the market somewhat.

I also think there’s a lot of lip service paid to this idea that if you buy reasonably popular chips you’ll always be able to just sell them back. I saw this said a ton when I first joined. I think this isn’t as real as people make it out to be when they’re trying to move chips and see an opportunity to entice noobs. This means that people are often tricked into thinking there’s little risk in buying something and then are stuck with it. I see a lot of threads going on right now where I imagine the sellers are shocked how long their chips have been sitting.

Lastly, I think we’re a whole bunch of degens who like spending money and want things quickly. I have learned a lot about patience in the last year as I’ve matured in my chipping. I have a lot admiration for the folks who have build up racks one chip at a time. I think people, especially when new into this, want want want want and then accumulate too much too quickly and get stuck when they can’t find the next wanter.

I know I’ve had chips that I gobbled up quickly and got lucky someone else wanted at the price I overpaid. I know I’ve sometimes sat with things that seemed stunning to me but the market didn’t reflect that same opinion.

This is to say, I think newbs making mistakes/learning lessons are a bigger factor in shaping the market.

 

[jamesjkim]

It seems a lot of people are trying to sell at their cost, a cost reflecting the top of the market when everyone was flush with cash.

Just because it is at or just below your cost does make it a good deal, sale price, or bargain if you overpaid. At last count I think 10% of posts listed at a "great deal" were actually a good deal.

Personally I have acquired every chip I could possibly need for tournament or cash for the rest of my poker career (hoping for another 30-40 years) and am just shopping to fill out sets here or there when an actual good deal pops up.

So what is a good deal nowadays? As a relatively new chipper, I've definitely been click-baited into a "great deal" post for a set costing $10/chip without any clue as to if it really is a good deal.

I wonder if we could make (or if there already is) a list of 1) availability of certain chip sets (ie. abundance of a chip) and 2) range of pricing that could be stickied for newer chippers to use as a reference point. Probably a long shot.

 

[Rieguy]

So what is a good deal nowadays? As a relatively new chipper, I've definitely been click-baited into a "great deal" post for a set costing $10/chip.

I wonder if we could make (or if there already is) a list of 1) availability of certain chip sets (ie. abundance of a chip) and 2) range of pricing that could be stickied for newer chippers to use as a reference point. Probably a long shot.

This just comes with being patient, searching, learning and taking your time. FMV can change day to day.

Don’t be fooled by an OPs claims or thread-fluffing. Do your work and/or reach out to someone you can trust if you have questions or are on the fence.

 

[BarrieJ3]

All of this, yas. Yasssssssssss. You should be dinged for "Amazing going out of business sale, my loss is your gain, come look at these you won't believe the deal" threads that are just normal priced or below their cost (and still above market).

You should 100% be dinged for posting chips for sale, and not notating their are C&J when you know for a fact they are C&J.

Start your auctions at a $1. If you bump your classified for 2 weeks, take it down or go reverse auction and lower until purchased.

Stop hiding your initial prices and deleting it every time you have to lower. Be honest!

I know there is some barrier to entry here and everyone needs to learn, but ever since all sales went private and PM, what's left in the public is a free for all wasteland.

Follow me to the promised land y'all!

 

[Okku]

So what is a good deal nowadays? As a relatively new chipper, I've definitely been click-baited into a "great deal" post for a set costing $10/chip.

I wonder if we could make (or if there already is) a list of 1) availability of certain chip sets (ie. abundance of a chip) and 2) range of pricing that could be stickied for newer chippers to use as a reference point. Probably a long shot.

A lot of the times it comes down to rarity of a chip for example. Higher denom chips like $500+ are going to be rarer. That ultimately depends on if it was from a Chip Room sale or if they're from older casinos. Indiana Grand $500s are going to be cheaper than TRK $500s for example and I know they are from two totally different worlds and eras, but that's an example I'll put together.

I bought plenty of chips when I first got into the hobby. Majority of them were to understand what I was trying to go after and what I would've wanted from the hobby. I bought some cheap monogrammed TRKs, bought some Paulsons (small shuffle stacks) and some samples of others, but didn't enjoy anything as much as the TRKs. So with that, I stuck with the TRKs and have ran with it. TRKs especially the nice heavy leaded, premium stuff is going to be much more expensive and more than I can afford right now. Racks could easily sell for over $3000 if someone wanted to release something nice. There are plenty of cheap nice looking racks, but the premium stuff is very high in demand, very expensive and so on.

Chip sets from Chip Room sales are out there and there are plenty of those chips out there. If you want to feel like you are getting a good deal reference the original sale prices and compare. If someone is trying to charge 2x-3x original prices, then you clearly aren't getting a good deal. Now, I'm sure there are going to be plenty of people trying to sell for profit because there are the people that specifically bought those chips to sell for profit. All depends on the person who bought the chips, what they did with them, their original intention and so on. If someone wants to sell at cost or below cost to you, then by all means understand what they are doing for you. I'd call that a good and amazing deal.

 

[Okku]

Stop hiding your initial prices and deleting it every time you have to lower. Be honest!

THIS! Right here! I've seen it too many times and I've gone back to other threads looking at what the listing started at trying to figure out how much it's dropped or not...

 

[upNdown]

This just comes with being patient, searching, learning and taking your time. FMV can change day to day.

Don’t be fooled by an OPs claims or thread-fluffing. Do your work and/or reach out to someone you can trust if you have questions or are on the fence.

Yes, all this exactly. And whoever it was earlier who said that 10% of the great deals are actually good deals - that figure is probably accurate. And those chips sell in a matter of minute. Like seriously, easy rule of thumb - if the chips have sat, unsold for days (or even hours really) its not a very good deal NO MATTER HOW MANY PEOPLE COMMENT "WHAT A DEAL!" WITHOUT BUYING THE CHIPS.

 

[jamesjkim]

Yes, all this exactly. And whoever it was earlier who said that 10% of the great deals are actually good deals - that figure is probably accurate. And those chips sell in a matter of minute. Like seriously, easy rule of thumb - if the chips have sat, unsold for days (or even hours really) its not a very good deal.

This has been my assumption as well. "There must be a reason they're not sold".

Ironically/coincidentally, I sometimes see others chime in saying "these should not be here" and yet still don't sell. It reminds me of the days I used to sell random stuff on eBay and had a friend bid on my listing to boost the final sale price.

 

[JMC9389]

This has been my assumption as well. "There must be a reason they're not sold".

Ironically/coincidentally, I sometimes see others chime in saying "these should not be here" and yet still don't sell. It reminds me of the days I used to sell random stuff on eBay and had a friend bid on my listing to boost the final sale price.

Exactly this. Often times this happens when friends of the OP are trying to get the stuff to sell. It's reverse thread crapping, IMO.

The problem with so many deals happening behind closed doors via PM is that it's hard for someone new to get a sense of the true value of a rack or set of chips. Fair market value changes often but it's ultimately whatever someone is willing to pay for something. Chips I know I overpaid for last year are selling for 30% less now and are still sitting unsold.

If you're unsure about whether something is a good deal, send a PM to someone who's been around a bit. Most will be helpful and give you good insight, only a small amount won't answer but almost no one will tell you to screw off.

 

[doublebooyah85]

Yes, all this exactly. And whoever it was earlier who said that 10% of the great deals are actually good deals - that figure is probably accurate. And those chips sell in a matter of minute. Like seriously, easy rule of thumb - if the chips have sat, unsold for days (or even hours really) its not a very good deal NO MATTER HOW MANY PEOPLE COMMENT "WHAT A DEAL!" WITHOUT BUYING THE CHIPS.

I kinda disagree here. If it’s a set priced over $4k it can sit for a day or two and still be a great deal.

I definitely think card mold chips w the new molds have corrected some of the chip prices. Entry level chips are even cheaper now driving down the cost of all chips bc we have a significant influx in supply.

Entry level chips are no longer RHC. Leaving more RHC available. Lowering the cost on them, and that even trickles into THC.

But, I still don’t think market is saturated. Most sets still command their $. The biggest losers in the past year from peak to market is what? Certain NAGB chips (which frankly has been going on awhile) and IG RHC?

 

[jamesjkim]

Exactly this. Often times this happens when friends of the OP are trying to get the stuff to sell. It's reverse thread crapping, IMO.

The problem with so many deals happening behind closed doors via PM is that it's hard for someone new to get a sense of the true value of a rack or set of chips. Fair market value changes often but it's ultimately whatever someone is willing to pay for something. Chips I know I overpaid for last year are selling for 30% less now and are still sitting unsold.

If you're unsure about whether something is a good deal, send a PM to someone who's been around a bit. Most will be helpful and give you good insight, only a small amount won't answer but almost no one will tell you to screw off.

I feel like the challenge with this, unfortunately, is that by the time I gather info, oftentimes, good deals are already gone. Maybe somewhat connected with this is when others @ dibs for people they know. Makes me feel like I'm the only one constantly refreshing Classifieds while others have assistance. Don't get me wrong, having friends looking out for you is great. Just wish dibs would be required to be done by the buyer.

But yes, the PCFers I've had a chance to PM have been really helpful in my chipping journey.

 

[doublebooyah85]

I feel like the challenge with this, unfortunately, is that by the time I gather info, oftentimes, good deals are already gone. Maybe somewhat connected with this is when others @ dibs for people they know. Makes me feel like I'm the only one constantly refreshing Classifieds while others have assistance. Don't get me wrong, having friends looking out for you is great. Just wish dibs would be required to be done by the buyer.

But yes, the PCFers I've had a chance to PM have been really helpful in my chipping journey.

I don’t see dibs for other people hardly ever. That’s just usually someone tagging someone so they see it.

Your other complains are valid. I missed out on a Dunes cash set once bc I was trying to understand the price. Ultimately sometimes you just have to trust the seller…

 

[JeepologyOffroad]

kinda disagree here. If it’s a set priced over $4k it can sit for a day or two and still be a great deal.

This. Saying anything that’s sitting for longer a couple of hours is a bad deal is not a good rule of thumb. Does it happen often? Yes. But not the rule. Best for a new member to educate themselves and spend some time hanging around before buying their first set.

 

[jamesjkim]

I don’t see dibs for other people hardly ever. That’s just usually someone tagging someone so they see it.

Your other complains are valid. I missed out on a Dunes cash set once bc I was trying to understand the price. Ultimately sometimes you just have to trust the seller…

Still learning here and at least now I know they're not dibs! That makes me feel better.

 

[doublebooyah85]

Still learning here and at least now I know they're not dibs! That makes me feel better.

I have a great beyond super minty RHC set for only $8/chip. Shoot me a PM.

 

[jamesjkim]

I have a great beyond super minty RHC set for only $8/chip. Shoot me a PM.

Is that a good deal? Lol - PMing anyway

 

[upNdown]

This. Saying anything that’s sitting for longer a couple of hours is a bad deal is not a good rule of thumb. Does it happen often? Yes. But not the rule. Best for a new member to educate themselves and spend some time hanging around before buying their first set.

I kinda disagree here. If it’s a set priced over $4k it can sit for a day or two and still be a great deal.

Sure, okay. But rules of thumb aren't black letter law; they leave room for exceptions.
The "educate themselves" is definitely the most important part - it isn't an easy hobby.

edit: Wait, are we confusing "good deal" for fair deal? When I said very good deal, I meant significantly below market value.

 

[RagingAZN]

I'm very new to chipping but I think its a great time to be a new chipper. The amount of stuff out there is amazing. A huge variety of chips and pricepoints.

I think its the way you look at purchasing chips that makes or breaks it for you.

Similar to housing (in New Zealand anyway), if you're looking to time the market, its a fools game. If you can afford it right now and it meets your needs, then go for it. Do I really care that I've paid $3.50 for a chip when the actual market value might (or should) be $3?

No. I'm going to be using these in my fortnightly home game for our enjoyment.

I also don't think that I should expect to be able to sell them for the same price I bought them after I've used them or even if they've just sat around gathering dust in a box.

There's also lots of private sales going, I believe. I bought more stuff privately here than what is publicly listed. The sellers have also said the same thing.

Also, to all those sellers saying CONUS shipping only, why is that? The rest of the world does not have all the good stuff from the land of the free. We're willing to pay for the cost of shipping and its still the same amount of time for you to go to the Post Office. I bet there are plenty of lurkers here who are interested in your chips if only you'd ship overseas!

 

[upNdown]

Also, to all those sellers saying CONUS shipping only, why is that? The rest of the world does not have all the good stuff from the land of the free. We're willing to pay for the cost of shipping and its still the same amount of time for you to go to the Post Office. I bet there are plenty of lurkers here who are interested in your chips if only you'd ship overseas!

I'm not saying it's cool or it's right, but there's just a whole lot more work and stress involved in shipping outside of the US. So many more things that can go wrong. Every time I do it, I say Never Again!

 

[BarrieJ3]

Also, to all those sellers saying CONUS shipping only, why is that? The rest of the world does not have all the good stuff from the land of the free. We're willing to pay for the cost of shipping and its still the same amount of time for you to go to the Post Office. I bet there are plenty of lurkers here who are interested in your chips if only you'd ship overseas!

I don't do CONUS only. But:

Many, many countries that only do things like PPG&S which doesn't release funds until the product has arrived.

I shipped one out of country box 3 times to their US reshipping person/service and it kept getting sent back. Then they were annoyed when I didn't answer a PM within a timely manner while I was trying to figure out what the issue was with their reshipper. Language barrier made me think their reshipper moved and just never told them.

I once accidentally put a chip that shouldn't have been in an non CONUS package. Turn around time to get that chip to the right person would be far too long, my fault but would've been easier if local.

Extra time to fill out paperwork and track your in progress outgoing chips.

Sent a not insignificant package to Austrailia. It sat in Chicago hub I think for weeks on end, eventually getting returned to sender which by then I had moved. Luckily, local chipper and mod grabbed it and sent back to me.

I've sent hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of packages. The only 2 times that the package delivery had an issue, was delivering outside of US/Canada.

Plus - it's so easy to get a stateside reshipper. People selling CONUS only really don't create that large of a barrier. It's cheaper and makes sense to have a reshipper.

 

[FestiveKnight]

C A V E A T
E M P T O R

There, I summarized what I think we’re saying



There’s surely a bunch of helpful rules of thumb and in any given period you can find exceptions to those rules.

I have Zens listed right now that have been selling in the last 48 hours but sat for a while and are significantly discounted from the original GB price. I didn’t overpay unless you think the GB itself was overpriced.

Price is king but there’s a bunch more that moves market behavior than just price and people should do their research and not just assume that how slowly something moves is solely indicative of price.