Have we finally reached market saturation?? (3 Viewers)

Spraggs making bank right now. Lots of barrels moving. It’s a good thing, a lot of people are filling in holes and starting new projects. Somebody should plot the molds and the prices and see what’s selling and what’s not and in what ranges.
I don’t know, but I noticed one barrel of hundreds that was like $800? Not sure how that makes sense, but I suppose singles collectors go after ASMs to, so who knows?
 
I enjoyed picking thru Spragg’s racks. I picked up quite a few. I don’t have any projects that require barrels but I’ll always search his threads for those wonderful old mold racks.
 
Oversaturated, it looks like, if it’s come to this. Better offload your chips now before the market tanks.
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Thread Revival.

Current chipping situation:

- Everyone has what they want, and has stopped buying

Based on my personal experience of the last few months, I don't think 'everyone has what they want'...PCF membership has grown significantly, nearing 12K now, and there is demand for all kinds of chips. What we are seeing in the market now is what we always see during summer months...pretty much every single year (don't look at the pandemic/post-pandemic-fed-puming-money-summer-years)... PCFers, like everyone else, travel, and are either enjoying their time on vacation or short on cash paying for their holiday(s). 'Demand' returns in the fall, gets better during the 'shopping' season of November and December and even continues healthily during the winter months as we are stuck inside and spend more time with our chippies/hoards and playing poker. Add bonus and tax refund season, and it sometimes even continues into spring, until we get to the slow summer season again and someone inevitably bumps this thread again.

My first advice is ...try not to sell during summer months... But, if you have to/must, be patient and realistic. PCFers fishing in Montana or traveling in Greece may be checking the site 10x a day, but are not pressing the buy button or dibsing $20K sets very quickly.

I have bought two Pauslon sets and a TRK set in the last 6 months. I don't think the market is dried up just yet.

I agree with Bill's views here... market has not dried up... I am still getting frequent requests for chips...and quite a few sets...some I have and some I don't... this, I believe is even true for other, non-Tiger chips....more below...

I have bough/sold “a lot” (roughly 35 racks sold and close to 40 bought, mostly THC) in the past 6mo, this is based on my recent experience…

As far as I can tell, classifieds are full of loose racks/barrels, bait that won’t trade (because we all seem to want the same stuff lol), Paulson home line sets and RHC casino sets. At the right price it will sell. It used to sell in 5 minutes now it takes two weeks, I’d argue this is the way it should be!

I do agree. @JeepologyOffroad mentioned it as well that 'the way it used to be', chips sold in days and weeks, not instantaneously. We all have become jaded by what we saw happen in 2021/2022 when racks of NAGB yellow chips would sell for $2500+ in mere seconds. I thought that was absurd back then and still don't think any NAGB yellow chip deserves such pricing, but to each their own...

It does feels like a buyers market…except for the super premium stuff. There are some sets/racks that just won’t come up for sale. Prices paid/realized are flat on average for the old school leaded stuff.

Yup. And given there are 12K members now, even if 1% are the 'collectors/never-sellers', with very deep pockets, that's 120 members... I would venture to say it's probably half that number, but it's not an insignificant group. They will continue to buy/hoard the super premium chips: The PCAs and Aztars, TRKs, etc... but that has become a very small portion of the market. Unfortunately, PCF has become more of a 'Tina' marketplace than many of us would like...

I am surprised we don’t see more NAGB chips in the classifieds. Maybe it’s because there was a lot of activity (new buyers) at the 2020/2021 highs and holders don’t need to sell and take a loss (I am one of them)?

This is a BIG elephant in the room. People are uncomfortable talking about the incredibly inflated prices they paid for some chips in 2021/2022. Those prices are unlikely to be seen again anytime soon, if ever, for some of the mundane/newly released chips. There are sets being offered now in the classifieds at such inflated (IMO ridiculous) prices... some sellers still haven't figured out that prices for some of the chips they bought at the height of the market, have declined by 50%+ (more likely they are reluctant to face the reality and accept the loss)... The choice by some collectors/deep-pocketed chippers is to hold on to the chips and never sell them...obviously they won't even care as many just enjoy having these incredibly beautiful clay discs in their collection... but for those who have to sell/re-sell, they have two choices: price them based on the inflated prices they paid, and keep cutting prices until they sell...or price them realistically in the first place based on some recent/more realistic sales numbers.

If you’re a new chipper joining today, there are plenty of great options available at difference prices points.

:tup: ... with the exception of being around before 2016/2017 with knowledge and funds, I think this is one of the best times in recent memory to be a new chipper/buyer...plenty of choices across all price points.


BTW, I hope you find your 3 rack of Lake Elsinore... used to be easier to find some chips...probeme I see now is not that chips are in short supply...but perhaps because there are nearly 12K members on PCF...when I joined, I think it was closer to 1500ish. It was a lot easier to search and find who has some particular chips you were looking for...PM them, and eventually find someone willing to sell you the chips ... now, I would bet a dozen or multiple dozens of people are looking for the exact same chip and aggressively PMing members non-stop.

Point #1: Yes. Most of the big rollers have what they want.

IMO, the 'big rollers' will never be 'done'... the size of their hoard is proportional to their disposable funds..and most have a lot... the limit is on how good the chips/sets are....they will continue to buy more chips into the future and add to their collection/hoard.

Point #4: Absolutely. People are going on vacations, to concerts, going out to eat more and aren't sitting idle at home anymore in lockdown as they were pre pandemic.

Combined with, and somewhat related to, 'summer always being the slowest season'...this is a BIG factor. The post-pandemic 'get me the fu&^ out of my lockdown and I am ready to spend a ton on a nice vacation' didn't end last year...it has continued this year..we've all seen how incredibly busy (and expensive) vacation spots have been this summer... does that not apply to the, did I mention, nearly 12K members here? :unsure: .. people are spending time away from theiur keyboards and spending more money on experiences during the summer months... leaves more chips sitting in the classifieds for longer.

I also notice the home game thread isn't as populated as it was a year or two ago. Partly for security reasons discussed elsewhere, but as a whole, the novelty of playing poker again after coming out of lockdown for months is starting to wane.

I've hosted four times this year. Four. I hosted four games by March last year and did 13 or 14 overall. I'm looking at the calendar and October is the next time I'm able to/looking to host.

No games = no need for any new chips.

Not sure about the security issue...I've never even worried about it as there is ZERO cash exchange in our game...all done electronically. But, regarding slowing demand? obviously it varies...Pre-pandemic, I used to have a game 6x a month... it completely shut down during pandemic and post-pandemic, barely had a handful of games in 2022...and I ended up selling nearly all my chips in 2020/2021: no game - no chips. Now? I have 2 games a week and starting September will be 3x a week and we are pretty much full every game... Demand has never been higher for poker...again, just my personal experience.

This thread 100% did not need any revival.
True for the veterans, but probably not so for the new members.

Things are being sold privately.
As far back as I remember (2015ish), most of the prized/great sets/chips were being bought and sold privately.

And stuff sits/it's a buyers market because everyone is selling the same things and overpriced.
100%...That captures a big portion of the issue at hand...

Some sellers still want to sell at prices they paid for during the crazy bubble times of 2021/2022. To each their own, but we have seen a significant correction in the market from 2021/2022 prices, partly the cool down in all-things collectible, and I would say equally due to new chip releases. Some sellers have recognized the new reality by re-pricing their chips... those who need to sell, should research prices before posting in the classifieds... a lot has changed in 2023. Not going to mention anyone's sales thread, but a personal example is that I bought 3 small sets of ESSTs at what I thought were reasonable prices..I combined them, and re-sold a few racks/barrels at the same reasonable/low prices I had paid...these were 30-50% below peak prices of 2020/2021. They all sold pretty quickly.
 
It seems a lot of people are trying to sell at their cost, a cost reflecting the top of the market when everyone was flush with cash.

Just because it is at or just below your cost does make it a good deal, sale price, or bargain if you overpaid.
completely agree...

Personally I have acquired every chip I could possibly need for tournament or cash for the rest of my poker career (hoping for another 30-40 years) and am just shopping to fill out sets here or there when an actual good deal pops up.
:unsure: ... if I had a million dollar for every time a notable PCF chipper/collector said those words...I would have a lot of millions :ROFL: :ROFLMAO: ... I would wager you will add 1, possibly 2 more sets in the next 24 months... :wtf:

I also think there’s a lot of lip service paid to this idea that if you buy reasonably popular chips you’ll always be able to just sell them back. I saw this said a ton when I first joined. I think this isn’t as real as people make it out to be when they’re trying to move chips and see an opportunity to entice noobs. This means that people are often tricked into thinking there’s little risk in buying something and then are stuck with it. I see a lot of threads going on right now where I imagine the sellers are shocked how long their chips have been sitting.
I can't speak for every instance as I don't read a lot of threads... but I would guess that most of that sentiment came honestly from chippers who were trying to help. For many years it was always 'buy now ask questions later'. Most sets, low or high priced, and nearly all kinds of racks could be bought and re-posted in the classifieds with minimal, if any losses...and they would sell within a reasonable time frame as well. Times have truly changed and I think many members here still do believe the old ways still exist. Pre-pandemic, members used to buy massive sets even if they needed 20% of the chips...they would re-list the racks they didn't need and they would all pretty much sell (sometimes it would take weeks to sell all the un-wanted chips, but that was acceptable to most of us as the only plausible way to acquire that 20% that we truly needed to complete out sets). Those were the good old days. During the pandemic we saw the inflated version of it: same concept at significantly higher prices for pretty much all chips. But now we are back to normal...or a new 'normal'. There are lots of PCFers looking for chips, but there are LOTS of new chips as well. The options for new chippers has never been better, IMO.

So what is a good deal nowadays? As a relatively new chipper, I've definitely been click-baited into a "great deal" post for a set costing $10/chip without any clue as to if it really is a good deal.

A 'good deal' is different for everyone. I remember paying top of the market/full prices for Star/Boat chips in 2016/2017 ($1200-$1500/rack for AS $25s $100s, for example)...and multiple big sets of the Stars chips (all, except ESST). I kept them in my chip closet, put some in play, then ended up selling all of them and lost money...but never regretted it, nor did I think I got a 'bad' deal. There was a point in time I wanted to have them, enjoyed and used them...there was/is cost associated with that. I think it was a good deal...to me.

I kinda disagree here. If it’s a set priced over $4k it can sit for a day or two and still be a great deal.
High-priced sets have their own 'rules'. Unless in demand and priced fairly, they tend to stay in the classifieds longer. If a seller is wondering why no one has made any serious offers, they should try to search and find out what those chips have sold for recently and maybe price them more realistically.


I definitely think card mold chips w the new molds have corrected some of the chip prices. Entry level chips are even cheaper now driving down the cost of all chips bc we have a significant influx in supply.

Entry level chips are no longer RHC. Leaving more RHC available. Lowering the cost on them, and that even trickles into THC.

But, I still don’t think market is saturated. Most sets still command their $.
:tup:

The biggest losers in the past year from peak to market is what? Certain NAGB chips (which frankly has been going on awhile) and IG RHC?
IMO, one particular buyer and one particular set of NAGB chips (independently) had a major impact on what people thought or think FMV for chips was or should be. Racks of red chips selling for $2K (or more) and yellow chips for $2K-$3K and purples for $2500...well, to each their own...just don't think they were sustainable. I personally think the deluge of new THC/RHC/NAGB and all other new finds have meaningfully corrected the market. Is there more downside? I don't know...but given what I personally see on the demand side, I don't believe so. I believe most are better served by thinking in terms of buying chips to enjoy and use in their games as opposed to potential investment opportunity or collectibility. If that's the goal, one needs to dabble in a very narrow/niche part of the market.

This. Saying anything that’s sitting for longer a couple of hours is a bad deal is not a good rule of thumb. Does it happen often? Yes. But not the rule. Best for a new member to educate themselves and spend some time hanging around before buying their first set.
https://www.pokerchipforum.com/threads/starlite-cruises-paulson-cash-tourney.10979/

I'm very new to chipping but I think its a great time to be a new chipper. The amount of stuff out there is amazing. A huge variety of chips and pricepoints.
I have pointed this out to a few newbies who have reached out in the last couple fo weeks regarding Tiger chips... IMO, unless you're looking for old school leaded THC chips (or obviously TRKs), this is one of the best times to be a new chipper... Mint NAGB chips are selling at record low prices and some at 50% or more below 2022/2021 prices.... not to mention incredible amount of readily available mint RHC chips...


Also, to all those sellers saying CONUS shipping only, why is that? The rest of the world does not have all the good stuff from the land of the free. We're willing to pay for the cost of shipping and its still the same amount of time for you to go to the Post Office. I bet there are plenty of lurkers here who are interested in your chips if only you'd ship overseas!
This is a controversial issue and has been discussed in details in various threads...including the shipping threads. My personal experience has been nothing but great dealing with international buyers...and I do recognize this may be an exception and many have had very difficult experiences and have lost money shipping overseas.

I used to alwsy ship to overseas buyers (they always pay for the cost and accept bulk of the responsibility). Since debut of Tiger chips, I have sold quite a few sets and many racks to overseas chippers. for those who did not have a domestic re-shipper, I simply got a quote using piratehips. I shipped using USPS and UPS. In a few occasions, I used FedEx (what a f*&^% pain in the a&^ is their UI/UX). I tell the buyers what the shipping cost is and mention that once I drop off the package at a shipping center, it becomes their responsibility... I never lost a shipment, and none were damaged upon arrival...and i shipped some very expensive/heavy sets. To each their own, but I will continue to sell/ship internationally...for Tiger Palace chips or any other chips I list for sale.


Private sales are not necessarily a better deal. Also a chance to screw you over and no one sees it. It's all about WHO you are buying from and WHAT you are buying.
Yup...don't I know it... While overwhelmingly positive, I've had three extremely unpleasant private sales experiences ...and got screwed over on some pretty awesome sets...oh well...

I agreed, sometime thing can be priced correctly but they are other factors involve as well especially if the set is over $1k.

Speaking from my recent experience, I had put my PCA primary set for sale at market price. I have a few PM within the first 24 hours (indicating interest) and asking about other thing like shipping concern, how hard is it to get add-on, additional pics and also time to raise fund.

Eventually it get sold about after a week.
As others have alluded to, sets not selling instantaneously used to be the norm. Now, if a sets or rack sit in the classified for more than a nanosecond, the buyers think they have to immediately reduce prices and sellers think there is something wrong with the chips or the market overall and they step back from buying. I've even seen sellers listing chips in the morning and begin to reduce prices in the afternoon...after just a few hours... I mean, wow...

International shipping doesn’t need to be a negative experience. In fact it can bring excitement to an otherwise mundane life, very much like waiting for the results of an STD test.

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:tup:

In many years I've never had a package not arrive. I always assume 100% responsibility.

I have had packages stall before and have found a quick inquiry by the shipper usually gets the package moving again the same or next day. Never fails.

The best I had so far was a package opened (full of racks in rack boxes) with a notice about opiod abuse/addiction. Wrong substance but correct message. Maybe the barrels looked like pill containers?
Can't agree more.. As I mentioned never lost an international package.. some have been delayed. One going to Australia was delayed for 3 weeks...One was stuck en-route to Canada... every time I called the fine folks at USPS, they would start their tracking process and the package would begin to move... everything was delivered ... and none were even opened or damaged...

Poker chips should be put into play.
Yes...and their 'value' will very likely decline after you put them in play... but some of us really enjoy putting amazing chips in play... there is a whole thread about that somewhere... :ROFL: :ROFLMAO:

I collect baseball cards, basketball cards, and shoes. Everything is down. Every seller is selling at a loss right now (and has been for the past year or so).

A Mike Trout rookie I bought for $1k at auction in 2021 has been sitting on eBay as a buy it now for $400 for months. What do you think the comments on this card would look like if commentary were allowed. Probably very similar to what you see here in classifieds.

I haven’t read entire thread but I’d be confident that whatever is happening in the chip market isn’t indicative of chip interest and is not specific to this hobby. Booms and busts.
Yes. And this is true for every market and it's been mentioned in various threads here as well ...from cars, to watches, guns, comic books, wine, cigars, practically any collectible, and even non-collectible markets.... not sure why chippers think it should be any different about these lovely clay discs we cherish so much... not to mention there has been a meaningful increase in supply of all kinds of chips in the last 12 months...

When I first started playing poker, I found chip talk. Then I spent a lot more money on poker chips than I couldn't really afford. Then we started a family and I haven't really played poker for 12 years, except for fun with family. Now that my son likes to play with us, I checked in here because I had some recuperation time from surgery and I enjoy looking at beautiful sets. Everyone is just as friendly as I remember. The chip options are a little shocking compared to where things were when I stopped paying attention. But because I own a few sets, I wouldn't be interested in any of the "starting" sets for myself, and that's where most of the variety and options appears to be. Still, even though now I could afford those chips I wanted 12 years ago, they've escalated in price 3-4-5-6-fold. I still like looking at beautiful chips, but I'm not a collector. It seems like there's no middle tier for chips--there's the starter sets that are not the quality I would want, and there's the Paulsons, TRKs, and Matsui's, that seem to me to be inflated price-wise, but...I've been out of it and clearly I don't know the value of things anymore.
I wasn't around when great THC/TRK chips were in relative abundance: the good old days of vendors bringing PCA, Aztar MO, the glorious TRKs and other amazing finds... I think there is a thread somewhere about when/how some of these sets were brought into the market. But generally speaking, prices of everything is up several fold in the last 10-15+ years. However, putting aside some of the high priced TRKs and leaded THCs, the middle market has never been more robust, IMO. And I would define it as $2-$7/chip. Lots of great minty THCs can be bought for $4-$7... and the world is a chipper's oyster if they want to dabble in RHCs with prices ranging from $1-$5/chip. Given where inflation has been the last few years, and prices of everything having gone up a lot, I would venture to say that the mid-tier market has not even kept up with inflation, let alone being a good investment.


Just a few general observation, mostly based on my personal experience pricing and selling chips in the last 12 months (some mentioned above):
  • Summers are always the toughest season to sell chips.
  • this sounds obvious, but worth mentioning again... sellers need to become more realistic about pricing their chips...do some research before listing..listing based on what you paid is very likely to be wrong in today's market, especially if you bought in 2021/2022
  • Don't be discouraged if chips, priced 'reasonably', don't sell immediately..Unless a chips is in very high demand and is priced 'fairly' (after researching recent transactions)...expect to sell sets or racks in a few days or longer...this used to be the norm... and likely the new norm as well...and IMO, don't reduce prices so quickly... not a good sales strategy... but again, to each their own....@doublebooyah85 had a successful listing for his AST chips... mentioned he is not reducing prices and he obviously is not desperate to sell... great chips, reasonably priced and they all sold (I think)...
  • Lastly, if someone lists certain chips at suspiciously high prices and after a day they 'sell', it doesn't mean that's the new price for those chips (they may not even be truly 'sold'). Pricing your set based on one supposed transaction does not mean a particular chip or set is now worth what that specific odd/peculiar sale suggests.
 
Yes...and their 'value' will very likely decline after you put them in play
Lots of good wisdom shared. This is the one point I'm going to disagree with. Just a theory of mine, or maybe only a thought. But I don't believe that using chips affects their value in the ways that people think. Yes, generally speaking chips are worth more when they're in better condition. But we all know that typical home use doesn't put a fraction of the wear on chips that casino use does.

I guess I look at it from the perspective of somebody who's going to use chips. So while I could eyeball the difference between rack of PCA secondary $5s that have never been played and a rack that's been played 5-10 times, i just really don't care. I'd never dream of paying a premium for the unused rack or asking for a discount on the used rack. Because I'm just going to play them anyway, so nm is as good as mint to me. And I think (or I'd like to think) that most pcfers share a similar perspective.
I guess that if there are some vault people who would actually put a premium on unused chips just to keep them in that condition, I think they're enough of a minority that their perspectives aren't really affecting market prices vis a vis chip condition.
 
Thanks for sharing your thoughts Ken. Didn't know that the summer tends to be slower, good to know.

... this is true for every market ... from cars, to watches, guns, comic books, wine, cigars, practically any collectible ...
... putting aside some of the high priced TRKs and leaded THCs, the middle market has never been more robust, IMO. And I would define it as $2-$7/chip. Lots of great minty THCs can be bought for $4-$7... and the world is a chipper's oyster if they want to dabble in RHCs with prices ranging from $1-$5/chip. Given where inflation has been the last few years, and prices of everything having gone up a lot, I would venture to say that the mid-tier market has not even kept up with inflation, let alone being a good investment.

Seems that the poker chip market follows the power law that applies across most collectible markets I've seen:

- the most collectible stuff (rare and beautiful) appreciates manyfold, since the later entrants with deepest pockets are chasing the same items
- a few runner ups also appreciate, but not a lot compared to the most collectible stuff
- everything else doesn't beat inflation
 
Lots of good wisdom shared. This is the one point I'm going to disagree with. Just a theory of mine, or maybe only a thought. But I don't believe that using chips affects their value in the ways that people think. Yes, generally speaking chips are worth more when they're in better condition. But we all know that typical home use doesn't put a fraction of the wear on chips that casino use does.

I guess I look at it from the perspective of somebody who's going to use chips. So while I could eyeball the difference between rack of PCA secondary $5s that have never been played and a rack that's been played 5-10 times, i just really don't care. I'd never dream of paying a premium for the unused rack or asking for a discount on the used rack. Because I'm just going to play them anyway, so nm is as good as mint to me. And I think (or I'd like to think) that most pcfers share a similar perspective.
I guess that if there are some vault people who would actually put a premium on unused chips just to keep them in that condition, I think they're enough of a minority that their perspectives aren't really affecting market prices vis a vis chip condition.
Not every game or group is the same, hence making generalization (on my part) was probably not fair. I know some groups where almost no one shuffles the chips...But 80% of players in my group do shuffle chips... after 6 months of use (once or twice a week), I don't expect the chips to be worth the same as when they were mint, minty, mintish, etc... And it does depend on the chips/sets as well... this is less applicable for highly desired sets such as PCA secondary... one can easily put a mint set in play 5-10 times and sell it for practically the same price they bought it.
 
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Just a theory of mine, or maybe only a thought. But I don't believe that using chips affects their value in the ways that people think. Yes, generally speaking chips are worth more when they're in better condition. But we all know that typical home use doesn't put a fraction of the wear on chips that casino use does.
This is a very good point.

Although there are typically different price ranges for sets in various conditions (mint/never used, near-mint, excellent, VGC, good condition, used/casino-worn, bike-tires, etc.), it takes a considerable amount of home play to move a chip set from one chip condition category down to a lesser-priced one.

With exception of mint/never-used or near-mint chips, even monthly play over the course of a year or two is unlikely to cause a massive change in condition, regardless of category.

And another way to slow or defer the wear process even more is to have multiple sets that rotate in/out of play. Plus you end up with moar chipes. :)
 
Paulson Classics :vomit: have been sittin in classies for months not even gettin a sniff. Market must have crashed :ROFL: :ROFLMAO:
 

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